scholarly journals Advancing Knowledge of ENSO in a Changing Climate

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael McPhaden ◽  
Agus Santoso ◽  
Wenju Cai

A new book highlights research progress on El Ni�o Southern Oscillation dynamics and impacts and how they may change in a warmer world.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanying Li ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
Ashish Sinha ◽  
Gayatri Kathayat ◽  
Christoph Spötl ◽  
...  

Abstract. The 4.2 ka BP event is widely described as a 200–300 years long interval of major climate anomaly (typically, arid and cooler conditions potentially across the globe), which defines the beginning of the current Meghalayan age in the Holocene epoch. The 4.2 ka event however, has been disproportionately reported from proxy records situated at low-mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, the climatic manifestation of the 4.2 ka event in both spatial and temporal domains is still much less clear in Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the southwest sector of the southern Indian Ocean. Here we present high-resolution and chronologically well-constrained speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes records of hydroclimate variability between ~ 6 and 3 ka ago from Rodrigues Island, located in the southwest subtropical Indian Ocean, ~ 600 km east of Mauritius. Our records reveal a major shift to drier condition at circa 4 ka BP, which culminated into a multicentennial period of drought (i.e., megadrought) that lasted continuously from ~ 3.9 to 3.5 ka BP. The inferred hydroclimatic conditions between 4.0 and 4.2 ka BP, are however not distinctly distinguishable from the region’s mean hydroclimatic state over the length of our record. Because the precipitation variability at Rodrigues is distinctly modulated by meridional movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the El Nino Southern Oscillation dynamics, our proxy data may ultimately provide critical constraints in our understanding the timing and dynamical forcing of the 4.2 ka event.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 758-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Wengel ◽  
Sun-Seon Lee ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Jung-Eun Chu ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 227 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Voracek ◽  
Michael Kossmeier ◽  
Ulrich S. Tran

Abstract. Which data to analyze, and how, are fundamental questions of all empirical research. As there are always numerous flexibilities in data-analytic decisions (a “garden of forking paths”), this poses perennial problems to all empirical research. Specification-curve analysis and multiverse analysis have recently been proposed as solutions to these issues. Building on the structural analogies between primary data analysis and meta-analysis, we transform and adapt these approaches to the meta-analytic level, in tandem with combinatorial meta-analysis. We explain the rationale of this idea, suggest descriptive and inferential statistical procedures, as well as graphical displays, provide code for meta-analytic practitioners to generate and use these, and present a fully worked real example from digit ratio (2D:4D) research, totaling 1,592 meta-analytic specifications. Specification-curve and multiverse meta-analysis holds promise to resolve conflicting meta-analyses, contested evidence, controversial empirical literatures, and polarized research, and to mitigate the associated detrimental effects of these phenomena on research progress.


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