scholarly journals Real‐Time Flood Forecasting Based on a High‐Performance 2‐D Hydrodynamic Model and Numerical Weather Predictions

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Ming ◽  
Qiuhua Liang ◽  
Xilin Xia ◽  
Dingmin Li ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Weather

scholarly journals Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3719-3732 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mediero ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
A. Chavez-Jimenez
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Real Time ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Model Based

Abstract. Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

scholarly journals Viability of Cloud Computing for Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1985-1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Siuta ◽  
Gregory West ◽  
Henryk Modzelewski ◽  
Roland Schigas ◽  
Roland Stull
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Computing ◽  
High Performance Computing ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Virtual Machines ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Cloud Platform ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Performance Computing

Abstract As cloud-service providers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft decrease costs and increase performance, numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the cloud will become a reality not only for research use but for real-time use as well. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on the Google Cloud Platform is tested and configurations and optimizations of virtual machines that meet two main requirements of real-time NWP are found: 1) fast forecast completion (timeliness) and 2) economic cost effectiveness when compared with traditional on-premise high-performance computing hardware. Optimum performance was found by using the Intel compiler collection with no more than eight virtual CPUs per virtual machine. Using these configurations, real-time NWP on the Google Cloud Platform is found to be economically competitive when compared with the purchase of local high-performance computing hardware for NWP needs. Cloud-computing services are becoming viable alternatives to on-premise compute clusters for some applications.

Near-real-time flood forecasting for an urban coastal catchment: An approach in combination of numerical weather and 3-way coupled hydrodynamic flood modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mousumi Ghosh ◽  
Supantha Paul ◽  
Subhankar Karmakar ◽  
Subimal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Urban Canopy Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Flood Model ◽  
Canopy Model

<p>The rapid increase in heavy precipitation flooding events highlights the need for efficient flood forecasting techniques to facilitate flood hydrological research and effective flood management by civic bodies. The current study aims to develop a near-real-time flood forecasting framework by integrating a 3-way coupled hydrodynamic flood model framework with numerical weather modelling based rainfall forecasts. The proposed framework has been demonstrated over Mumbai city in India, which is subjected to flooding every year during the monsoon months. A fine-resolution atmospheric simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been performed for rainfall forecasts, which serve as an input to the flood model. To access the impact of urbanization on rainfall extremes, three scenarios are considered in the WRF simulations, i.e., WRF model: (1) without Urban canopy model (WRF-NoUCM), (2) coupled with a single-layer Urban canopy model (WRF-SUCM), and (3) coupled with a multi-layer Urban canopy model (WRF-MUCM). Further, a three-way coupled flood model has been developed where the MIKE 11 model (streamflow) with the drainage network (stormwater drains) and the MIKE 21 model (overland flow) have been considered for flood inundation and subsequently hazard mapping. In addition, the tidal elevation is provided along the coastline in the model setup. The flood maps developed by three WRF forecasted rainfall scenarios have been compared with that of the maps developed with observed rainfall. The extent to which the scenarios have been able to imitate the pattern and extent of flooding generated by observed rainfall has been investigated to decide the best scenario to be adapted in the comprehensive flood forecasting network. This state-of-art flood forecasting approach may be implemented in other flood-prone coastal regions as a major non-structural flood management strategy to reduce flood risk and vulnerabilities for the people dwelling in those regions.</p>

scholarly journals Real-Time Flood Forecasting and Information System for the State of Iowa

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (3) ◽  
pp. 539-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Witold F. Krajewski ◽  
Daniel Ceynar ◽  
Ibrahim Demir ◽  
Radoslaw Goska ◽  
Anton Kruger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Real Time ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Information Dissemination ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Similar System ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Soil Moisture Accounting ◽  
Technological Advances

Abstract The Iowa Flood Center (IFC), established following the 2008 record floods, has developed a real-time flood forecasting and information dissemination system for use by all Iowans. The system complements the operational forecasting issued by the National Weather Service, is based on sound scientific principles of flood genesis and spatial organization, and includes many technological advances. At its core is a continuous rainfall–runoff model based on landscape decomposition into hillslopes and channel links. Rainfall conversion to runoff is modeled through soil moisture accounting at hillslopes. Channel routing is based on a nonlinear representation of water velocity that considers the discharge amount as well as the upstream drainage area. Mathematically, the model represents a large system of ordinary differential equations organized to follow river network topology. The IFC also developed an efficient numerical solver suitable for high-performance computing architecture. The solver allows the IFC to update forecasts every 15 min for over 1,000 Iowa communities. The input to the system comes from a radar-rainfall algorithm, developed in-house, that maps rainfall every 5 min with high spatial resolution. The algorithm uses Level II radar reflectivity and other polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dual-Polarimetric (WSR-88DP) radar network. A large library of flood inundation maps and real-time river stage data from over 200 IFC “stream-stage sensors” complement the IFC information system. The system communicates all this information to the general public through a comprehensive browser-based and interactive platform. Streamflow forecasts and observations from Iowa can provide support for a similar system being developed at the National Water Center through model intercomparisons, diagnostic analyses, and product evaluations.

scholarly journals Adaptive Blending Method of Radar-Based and Numerical Weather Prediction QPFs for Urban Flood Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seong-Sim Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Harmony Search ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Blending Method

Preparing proper disaster prevention measures is important for decreasing the casualties and property losses resulting from floods. One of the most efficient measures in this regard is real-time flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) based on either short-term radar-based extrapolation or longer-term numerical weather prediction. As both methods have individual advantages and limitations, in this study we developed a new real-time blending technique to improve the accuracy of rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications. We tested the hydrological applicability of six QPFs used for urban flood forecasting in Seoul, South Korea: the McGill Algorithm for Prediction Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE), KOrea NOwcasting System (KONOS), Spatial-scale Decomposition method (SCDM), Unified Model Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (UM LDAPS), and Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS), as well as our proposed blended approach based on the assumption that the error of the previously predicted rainfall is similar to that of current predicted rainfall. We used the harmony search algorithm to optimize real-time weights that would minimize the root mean square error between predicted and observed rainfall for a 1 h lead time at 10 min intervals. We tested these models using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and Grid-based Inundation Analysis Model (GIAM) to estimate urban flood discharge and inundation using rainfall from the QPFs as input. Although the blended QPF did not always have the highest correlation coefficient, its accuracy varied less than that of the other QPFs. In addition, its simulated water depth in pipe and spatial extent were most similar to observed inundated areas, demonstrating the value of this new approach for short-term flood forecasting.

scholarly journals Flood Routing Model with Particle Filter-Based Data Assimilation for Flash Flood Forecasting in the Micro-Model of Lower Yellow River, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minghong Chen ◽  
Juanjuan Pang ◽  
Pengxiang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Micro Model ◽  
Assimilation Model

Reliable real-time flood forecasting is a challenging prerequisite for successful flood protection. This study developed a flood routing model combined with a particle filter-based assimilation model and a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. This model was applied to an indoor micro-model, using the Lower Yellow River (LYR) as prototype. Real-time observations of the water level from the micro-model were used for data assimilation. The results show that, compared to the traditional hydrodynamic model, the assimilation model could effectively update water level, flow discharge, and roughness coefficient in real time, thus yielding improved results. The mean water levels of the particle posterior distribution are closer to the observed values than before assimilation, even when water levels change greatly. In addition, the calculation results for different lead times indicate that the root mean square error of the forecasting water level gradually increases with increasing lead time. This is because the roughness value changes greatly in response to unsteady water flow, and the incurring error accumulates with the predicted period. The results show that the assimilation model can simulate water level changes in the micro-model and provide both research method and technical support for real flood forecasting in the LYR.

Real-Time High Jump Wearable Device with ESP8266 for High-Performance and Low-Injury

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faris Roslan ◽  
◽  
Afandi Ahmad ◽  
Abbes Amira ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Wearable Device

scholarly journals Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Colonoscopy for Detection of Colon Polyps: a Prospective, Randomized Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuchen Luo ◽  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Ming Liu ◽  
Yihong Lai ◽  
Panpan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real Time ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Random Order ◽  
Colon Polyps ◽  
Clinical Environment ◽  
Polyp Detection ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Polyp Detection Rate

Abstract Background and aims Improving the rate of polyp detection is an important measure to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC). Real-time automatic polyp detection systems, through deep learning methods, can learn and perform specific endoscopic tasks previously performed by endoscopists. The purpose of this study was to explore whether a high-performance, real-time automatic polyp detection system could improve the polyp detection rate (PDR) in the actual clinical environment. Methods The selected patients underwent same-day, back-to-back colonoscopies in a random order, with either traditional colonoscopy or artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted colonoscopy performed first by different experienced endoscopists (> 3000 colonoscopies). The primary outcome was the PDR. It was registered with clinicaltrials.gov. (NCT047126265). Results In this study, we randomized 150 patients. The AI system significantly increased the PDR (34.0% vs 38.7%, p < 0.001). In addition, AI-assisted colonoscopy increased the detection of polyps smaller than 6 mm (69 vs 91, p < 0.001), but no difference was found with regard to larger lesions. Conclusions A real-time automatic polyp detection system can increase the PDR, primarily for diminutive polyps. However, a larger sample size is still needed in the follow-up study to further verify this conclusion. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT047126265

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