Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two‐way Nesting

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (15) ◽  
pp. 9222-9230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Gao ◽  
Jan‐Huey Chen ◽  
Lucas Harris ◽  
Yongqiang Sun ◽  
Shian‐Jiann Lin
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
The North Atlantic

The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic Hurricane Seasons: A Return of the Tropical-Only Hurricane

1998 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2062-2069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd B. Kimberlain ◽  
James B. Elsner
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Local Factors ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Global And Local

Abstract Hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during 1995 and 1996 is compared to the combined hurricane activity over the previous four years (1991–94). The earlier period produced a total of 15 hurricanes compared to a total of 20 hurricanes over the latter period. Despite this similarity in numbers, the hurricanes of 1995 and 1996 were generally of the tropical-only variety, which marks a substantial departure from activity during the early 1990s. The return of tropical-only hurricanes to the Atlantic basin is likely the result of several global and local factors, including cool SST conditions in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic. The hurricane activity of 1995 and 1996 is more reminiscent of activity of some seasons during the early and mid-1950s.

Skilful predictions of multi-year US hurricane insured losses by decadal prediction systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Lockwood ◽  
Nick Dunstone ◽  
Leon Hermanson ◽  
Adam Scaife ◽  
Doug Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Insured Losses ◽  
Prediction Systems

<p>North Atlantic tropical cyclones are the costliest natural hazard affecting the US, and are capable of causing hundreds of billions of dollars of insured losses in a single season.  Tropical cyclone activity has been observed to show considerable decadal variability, linked with variations in sea surface temperatures in regions of the North Atlantic such as the main hurricane development region (MDR) and sub-polar gyre (SPG).</p><p>In this presentation we show that a multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction systems can skilfully predict north Atlantic hurricane activity and consequent US insured losses on multi-annual timescales, with a correlation coefficient of greater than 0.7 for 5 year mean hurricane activity.  Rather than tracking tropical cyclones directly in the dynamical models, we make predictions using an index based on predicted temperatures over the north Atlantic.  The skill of the dynamical models outperforms persistence, and could aid decision making for the (re)insurance industry over the US.  As part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a publicly available probabilistic forecast of 5 year mean north Atlantic hurricane activity and US insured losses has been produced and will be presented here.</p>

Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1860) ◽  
pp. 2695-2716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greg J Holland ◽  
Peter J Webster
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
The North ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
The North Atlantic

We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7°C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945–1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.

GLOBAL COSMIC RAY INTENSITY CHANGES, SOLAR ACTIVITY VARIATIONS AND GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AS NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE PRECURSORS

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (29) ◽  
pp. 6699-6701 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. P. KAVLAKOV
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽  
Cosmic Ray Intensity ◽  
The North ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Activity Indices

It was shown that specific changes of the sunspots (SS) number, cosmic ray (CR) intensity and geomagnetic activity indices AP and KP were statistically noticeable in the interval of 30 days before the appearance of a cyclonic rotational system over the North Atlantic, developing gradually in a major hurricane.

scholarly journals Seasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Major Hurricane Activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 221-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Davis ◽  
Xubin Zeng
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Active Season ◽  
The North ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Multivariate Enso Index ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Building upon our previous seasonal hurricane prediction model, here we develop two statistical models to predict the number of major hurricanes (MHs) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic basin using monthly data from March to May for an early June forecast. The input data include zonal pseudo–wind stress to the 3/2 power, sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, and, depending on the magnitude of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index, the multivariate ENSO index. From 1968 to 2017, these models have a mean absolute error of 0.96 storms for MHs and 30 units for ACE. When tested over an independent period from 1958 to 1967, the models show a 22% improvement for MHs and 16% for ACE over a no-skill metric based on a 5-yr running average. Both the MH and ACE results show consistent improvements over those produced by three other centers using statistical–dynamical hybrid models and a 5-yr running average prediction over the period 2000–17 for MHs (2003–17 for ACE) in a simulated real-time prediction. These improvements vary from 25% to 37% for MHs and from 15% to 37% for ACE. While most forecasting centers called for a slightly above-average hurricane season in May/June 2017, our models predicted in June 2017 a very active season, in much better agreement with observations.

The Currents of the North Atlantic

1892 ◽  
Vol 34 (872supp) ◽  
pp. 13940-13941
Author(s):  
Richard Beynon
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

NATO adaptation to current challenges and mechanisms of Ukraine’s cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Oleh Poshedin
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Response Force ◽  
Cyber Attack ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Area Of Influence

The purpose of the article is to describe the changes NATO undergoing in response to the challenges of our time. Today NATO, as a key element of European and Euro-Atlantic security, is adapting to changes in the modern security environment by increasing its readiness and ability to respond to any threat. Adaptation measures include the components required to ensure that the Alliance can fully address the security challenges it might face. Responsiveness NATO Response Force enhanced by developing force packages that are able to move rapidly and respond to potential challenges and threats. As part of it, was established a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, a new Allied joint force that deploy within a few days to respond to challenges that arise, particularly at the periphery of NATO’s territory. NATO emphasizes, that cyber defence is part of NATO’s core task of collective defence. A decision as to when a cyber attack would lead to the invocation of Article 5 would be taken by the North Atlantic Council on a case-by-case basis. Cooperation with NATO already contributes to the implementation of national security and defense in state policy. At the same time, taking into account that all decision-making in NATO based on consensus, Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance quite vague perspective. In such circumstances, in Ukraine you often can hear the idea of announcement of a neutral status. It is worth reminding that non-aligned status did not save Ukraine from Russian aggression. Neutral status will not accomplish it either. All talks about neutrality and the impossibility of Ukraine joining NATO are nothing but manipulations, as well as recognition of the Ukrainian territory as Russian Federation area of influence (this country seeks to sabotage the Euro-Atlantic movement of Ukraine). Think about it, Moldova’s Neutrality is enshrined in the country’s Constitution since 1994. However, this did not help Moldova to restore its territorial integrity and to force Russia to withdraw its troops and armaments from Transnistria.

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