scholarly journals Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Liu ◽  
L. Yang ◽  
J. A. Smith ◽  
G. A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Hurricane Irene ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern United States: Hurricane Irene (2011)

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2883-2904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
James A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Mountainous Terrain ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Rainfall Distribution ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Hurricane Irene ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Hurricane Irene produced catastrophic rainfall and flooding in portions of the eastern United States from 27 to 29 August 2011. Like a number of tropical cyclones that have produced extreme flooding in the northeastern United States, Hurricane Irene was undergoing extratropical transition during the period of most intense rainfall. In this study the rainfall distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones is examined, principally through analyses of radar rainfall fields and high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. In addition to extratropical transition, the changing storm environment at landfall and orographic precipitation mechanisms can be important players in controlling the distribution of extreme rainfall. Rainfall distribution from landfalling tropical cyclones is examined from a Lagrangian perspective, focusing on times of landfall and extratropical transition, as well as interactions of the storm circulation with mountainous terrain. WRF simulations capture important features of rainfall distribution, including the pronounced change in rainfall distribution during extratropical transition. Synoptic-scale analyses show that a deep baroclinic zone developed and strengthened in the left-front quadrant of Irene, controlling rainfall distribution over the regions experiencing most severe flooding. Numerical experiments were performed with WRF to examine the role of mountainous terrain in altering rainfall distribution. Analyses of Hurricane Irene are placed in a larger context through analyses of Hurricane Hannah (2008) and Hurricane Sandy (2012).

scholarly journals Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003)

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 1342-1361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Lin ◽  
James A. Smith ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Timothy P. Marchok ◽  
Mary Lynn Baeck
Keyword(s):  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surge Flooding ◽  
Hurricane Isabel

Abstract Landfalling tropical cyclones present major hazards for the eastern United States. Hurricane Isabel (September 2003) produced more than $3.3 billion in damages from wind, inland riverine flooding, and storm surge flooding, and resulted in 17 fatalities. Case study analyses of Hurricane Isabel are carried out to investigate multiple hazards from landfalling tropical cyclones. The analyses focus on storm evolution following landfall and center on simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). WRF simulations are coupled with the 2D, depth-averaged hydrodynamic Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC), to examine storm surge in the Chesapeake Bay. Analyses of heavy rainfall and flooding include an examination of the structure and evolution of extreme rainfall over land. Intercomparisons of simulated rainfall from WRF with Hydro-NEXRAD rainfall fields and observations from rain gauge networks are presented. A particular focus of these analyses is the evolving distribution of rainfall, relative to the center of circulation, as the storm moves over land. Similar analyses are carried out for the wind field of Hurricane Isabel as it moves over the mid-Atlantic region. Outer rainbands, which are not well captured in WRF simulations, played a major role in urban flooding and wind damage, especially for the Baltimore metropolitan region. Wind maxima in outer rainbands may also have played a role in storm surge flooding in the upper Chesapeake Bay.

Influence of Urbanization on Precipitation and Flooding Caused by Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: The Case of Houston

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
James Smith
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Houston Area

<p>We examine the impact of urbanization on precipitation and flooding caused by tropical cyclones under a dynamical modeling framework, using Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Tropical Storms Allison (2001) and Imelda (2019) as case studies. Hurricane Harvey poured more than a metre of rainfall across the heavily populated Houston area, leading to unprecedented flooding and damage. Although studies have focused on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to this extreme rainfall event, limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of urbanization on the hydrometeorology associated with this hurricane. Here we find that urbanization exacerbated not only the flood response but also the storm total rainfall. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model—a numerical model for simulating weather and climate at regional scales—and statistical models, we quantify the contribution of urbanization to rainfall and flooding. We expand these analyses to examine the impacts of urbanization on Tropical Storms Allison and Imelda, two other storms that affected the Houston area causing widespread heavy rainfall and flooding.</p>

The Response of Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change: Quasi-Idealized Numerical Experiments

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 4361-4381
Author(s):  
Chunyong Jung ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
First Century ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Impact Weather

AbstractThis study uses small ensembles of convection-allowing, quasi-idealized simulations to examine the response of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) to climate change. Using HURDAT2 and ERA5 data over a 40-yr period from 1979 to 2018, we developed storm-relative composite fields for past North Atlantic recurving, oceanic ET events. The quasi-idealized present-day simulations are initialized from these composites and run in an aquaplanet domain. A pseudo–global warming approach is used for future simulations: Thermodynamic changes between late twenty-first century and twentieth century, derived from an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are added to the present-day initial and lateral boundary conditions. The composite-initialized present-day simulations exhibit realistic ET characteristics. Future simulations show greater intensity, heavier precipitation, and stronger downstream midlatitude wave train development relative to the present-day case. Specifically, the future ET event is substantially stronger before ET completion, though the system undergoes less reintensification after ET completion. Reductions in lower-tropospheric baroclinicity associated with Arctic amplification could contribute to this result. The future simulation exhibits 3-hourly ensemble-mean precipitation rate increases ranging from ~23% to ~50%, depending on ET phase and averaging radius. In addition, larger eddy kinetic energy accompanies the future storm, partly created by increased baroclinic conversion, resulting in stronger amplification of downstream energy maxima via intensified ageostrophic geopotential flux convergence and divergence. These results suggest that future TCs undergoing ET could have greater potential to cause high-impact weather in western Europe through both direct and remote processes.

scholarly journals Mixture Distributions and the Hydroclimatology of Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in the Eastern United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Smith ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Mary Lynn Baeck
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Storm Evolution ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Flooding in the eastern United States reflects a mixture of flood-generating mechanisms, with landfalling tropical cyclones and extratropical systems playing central roles. The authors examine the climatology of heavy rainfall and flood magnitudes for the eastern United States through analyses of long-duration records of flood peaks and maximum daily rainfall series. Spatial heterogeneities in flood peak distributions due to orographic precipitation mechanisms in mountainous terrain, coastal circulations near land–ocean boundaries, and urbanization impacts on regional climate are central elements of flood peak distributions. Lagrangian analyses of rainfall distribution and storm evolution are presented for flood events in the eastern United States and used to motivate new directions for stochastic modeling of rainfall. Tropical cyclones are an important element of the upper tail of flood peak distributions throughout the eastern United States, but their relative importance varies widely, and abruptly, in space over the region. Nonstationarities and long-term persistence of flood peak and rainfall distributions are examined from the perspective of the impacts of human-induced climate change on flood-generating mechanisms. Analyses of flood frequency for the eastern United States, which are based on observations from a dense network of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging stations, provide insights into emerging problems in flood science.

scholarly journals Monsoon Surges Enhance Extreme Rainfall by Maintaining the Circulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones and Slowing Down Their Movement

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dajun Zhao ◽  
Lianshou Chen ◽  
Yubin Yu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Significant Feature ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Advection Term ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Extreme rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones (ERLTCs) in China can cause flash floods and other disastrous impacts, so investigating their genesis and mechanism of enhancement has been attracting considerable attention. This study demonstrates that the extreme rainfall of landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) possesses two key properties—namely, maintenance of the LTC circulation and a lagging (slowing down or looping) of its movement, and the monsoon surge can provide a positive contribution to these properties. Specifically, diagnostics show that the low-level cyclonic vorticity and upper-level divergence of ERLTCs are significantly stronger than those of NERLTCs (non-extreme-rainfall-producing LTCs). The continuous intensification of the cyclonic rotation in the lower troposphere before the occurrence of extreme rainfall is a significant feature that distinguishes ERLTCs from NERLTCs. Vorticity budget analysis further shows that the relative vorticity advection term contributes the most to the local increase and maintenance of vorticity in the middle and lower troposphere of ERLTCs under the influence of the southwest monsoonal surge, thus demonstrating that the monsoonal surge favors the maintenance of LTC circulation. On the other hand, the activity of the southwest monsoonal surge is mainly manifested in the zonal wind anomaly, and the corresponding strong westerly transport can significantly reduce the zonal component of the steering flow. As a result, the total steering flow can be weakened, which decreases the northwestward translation speed of ERLTCs, and thus the monsoonal surge favors a lagging (slowing down or looping) of LTC movement. These results reveal the mechanism of influence through which the monsoonal surge affects ERLTCs via its direct impacts on the maintenance of their circulation and lagging of their movement—two distinct evolutionary characteristics.

scholarly journals Extreme rainfall and its impacts in the Brazilian Minas Gerais state in January 2020: Can we blame climate change?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Dalagnol ◽  
Carolina B. Gramcianinov ◽  
Natália Machado Crespo ◽  
Rafael Luiz ◽  
Julio Barboza Chiquetto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Minas Gerais State

scholarly journals A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0)

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 1791-1802
Author(s):  
Peiyan Chen ◽  
Hui Yu ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jiajie Xin ◽  
Yi Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Current Version ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Chinese Mainland ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractA dataset entitled “A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland” (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TCinduced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration’s tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts.

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