AbstractThis study investigates the interannual modes of the tropical Pacific using salinity from observations, ocean reanalysis output and CMIP6 products. Here we propose two indices of sea surface salinity (SSS), a monopole mode and a dipole mode, to identify the El Niño—South Oscillation (ENSO) and its diversity, respectively. The monopole mode is primarily controlled by atmospheric forcing, namely, the enhanced precipitation that induces negative SSS anomalies across nearly the entire tropical Pacific. The dipole mode is mainly forced by oceanic dynamics, with zonal current transporting fresh water from the western fresh pool into the western-central and salty water from the subtropics into the eastern tropical Pacific. Under a global warming condition, an increase in the monopole and dipole mode variance indicates an increase in both the central and eastern Pacific El Niño variability. The increase in central Pacific El Niño variability is largely due to enhanced vertical stratification during global warming in the upper layer, with intensified zonal advection. An eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern contributes to the increase in eastern Pacific El Niño, with enhanced precipitation over the central-eastern tropical Pacific.
Intensification of El Niño Rainfall Variability Over the Tropical Pacific in the Slow Oceanic Response to Global Warming