scholarly journals Subseasonal Week 3–5 Surface Air Temperature Prediction During Boreal Wintertime in a GFDL Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 416-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoqiang Xiang ◽  
Shian‐Jiann Lin ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Nathaniel C. Johnson ◽  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Prediction ◽  
Gfdl Model ◽  
Air Temperature Prediction

Impact of Land Initial States Uncertainty on Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Prediction in CFSv2 Reforecasts

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 2101-2121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chul-Su Shin ◽  
Paul A. Dirmeyer ◽  
Bohua Huang ◽  
Subhadeep Halder ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Temperature Prediction ◽  
Initial States ◽  
Air Temperature Prediction

AbstractThe NCEP CFSv2 ensemble reforecasts initialized with different land surface analyses for the period of 1979–2010 have been conducted to assess the effect of uncertainty in land initial states on surface air temperature prediction. The two observation-based land initial states are adapted from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) and the NASA GLDAS-2 analysis; atmosphere, ocean, and ice initial states are identical for both reforecasts. This identical-twin experiment confirms that the prediction skill of surface air temperature is sensitive to the uncertainty of land initial states, especially in soil moisture and snow cover. There is no distinct characteristic that determines which set of the reforecasts performs better. Rather, the better performer varies with the lead week and location for each season. Estimates of soil moisture between the two land initial states are significantly different with an apparent north–south contrast for almost all seasons, causing predicted surface air temperature discrepancies between the two sets of reforecasts, particularly in regions where the magnitude of initial soil moisture difference lies in the top quintile. In boreal spring, inconsistency of snow cover between the two land initial states also plays a critical role in enhancing the discrepancy of predicted surface air temperature from week 5 to week 8. Our results suggest that a reduction of the uncertainty in land surface properties among the current land surface analyses will be beneficial to improving the prediction skill of surface air temperature on subseasonal time scales. Implications of a multiple land surface analysis ensemble are also discussed.

scholarly journals Novel approaches for air temperature prediction: A comparison of four hybrid evolutionary fuzzy models

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Armin Azad ◽  
Hamed Kashi ◽  
Saeed Farzin ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Prediction ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
Novel Approaches ◽  
Air Temperature Prediction

scholarly journals Effects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on 2-m air temperature prediction over China during boreal winter in the S2S database

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (11) ◽  
pp. 6671-6689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Ben Yang ◽  
Haishan Chen ◽  
Yaocun Zhang ◽  
Anning Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Prediction ◽  
Air Temperature Prediction
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document