scholarly journals Understanding High-Latitude Methane in a Warming Climate

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scot Miller ◽  
Meghan Taylor ◽  
Jennifer Watts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Release ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Existing Data

Climate change could spur greenhouse gas release from the Arctic. A new project will synthesize existing data to improve uncertain predictions.

scholarly journals Observed and predicted effects of climate change on Arctic caribou and reindeer

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conor D. Mallory ◽  
Mark S. Boyce
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Many ◽  
Rapid Environmental Change ◽  
Full Consideration ◽  
Strong Concern

The ability of many species to adapt to the shifting environmental conditions associated with climate change will be a key determinant of their persistence in the coming decades. This is a challenge already faced by species in the Arctic, where rapid environmental change is well underway. Caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) play a key role in Arctic ecosystems and provide irreplaceable socioeconomic value to many northern peoples. Recent decades have seen declines in many Rangifer populations, and there is strong concern that climate change is threatening the viability of this iconic Arctic species. We examine the literature to provide a thorough and full consideration of the many environmental factors that limit caribou and reindeer populations, and how these might be affected by a warming climate. Our review suggests that the response of Rangifer populations to climate change is, and will continue to be, varied in large part to their broad circumpolar distribution. While caribou and reindeer could have some resilience to climate change, current global trends in abundance undermine all but the most precautionary outlooks. Ultimately, the conservation of Rangifer populations will require careful management that considers the local and regional manifestations of climate change.

scholarly journals Tropopause height at 78° N 16° E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
C. M. Hall ◽  
G. Hansen ◽  
F. Sigernes ◽  
K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Column Density ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Vhf Radar ◽  
Ozone Column

Abstract. We present a seasonal climatology of tropopause altitude for 78° N 16° E derived from observations 2007–2010 by the SOUSY VHF radar on Svalbard. The spring minimum occurs one month later than that of surface air temperature and instead coincides with the maximum in ozone column density. This confirms similar studies based on radiosonde measurements in the arctic and demonstrates downward control by the stratosphere. If one is to exploit the potential of tropopause height as a metric for climate change at high latitude and elsewhere, it is imperative to observe and understand the processes which establish the tropopause – an understanding to which this study contributes.

scholarly journals The EU and its Arctic spirit: Solving Arctic climate change from home?

European View ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-162
Author(s):  
Romain Chuffart ◽  
Andreas Raspotnik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Climate Change ◽  
Global Heating ◽  
The Eu

Dealing with climate change and developing the Arctic sustainably are often seen as both binary and contradictory sets of challenges. The EU is in a unique position in Arctic affairs: unlike non-Arctic states, it is part of and linked to the region. However, the EU is at risk of missing the opportunity to be a leader in setting standards for a coherent and sustainable approach for the region. The Arctic is often used as a symbol for global climate change and, conversely, climate change is also used as a reason for more Arctic engagement. Yet, the roots of global heating—greenhouse gas emissions—mostly originate from outside the region. This article asks whether the path towards more EU–Arctic involvement should start closer to home.

scholarly journals Tropopause height at 78° N 16° E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5485-5490 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Hall ◽  
G. Hansen ◽  
F. Sigernes ◽  
K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Column Density ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Vhf Radar ◽  
Ozone Column

Abstract. We present a seasonal climatology of tropopause altitude for 78° N 16° E derived from observations 2007–2010 by the SOUSY VHF radar on Svalbard. The spring minimum occurs one month later than that of surface air temperature and instead coincides with the maximum in ozone column density. This confirms similar studies based on radiosonde measurements in the arctic and demonstrates downward control by the stratosphere. If one is to exploit the potential of tropopause height as a metric for climate change at high latitude and elsewhere, it is imperative to observe and understand the processes which establish the tropopause – an understanding to which this study contributes.

scholarly journals Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 3155-3174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor J. Burke ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Gerhard Krinner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Soil Profile ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Northern High Latitude ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10 %–40 %∘C-1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.

Narrating Global Warming

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Real World ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Binary Oppositions

This article examines global warming using the narrative genre model of risk evaluation. The narrative genre model of risk evaluation offers a systematic and comparative way of looking at the form and structure of storytelling and its consequences for human action. It is based on a number of claims, for example: uncertain events and real world facts are “clues”; we can see things as low mimetic, romantic, tragic, or apocalyptic; binary oppositions play a role as building blocks for wider storytelling activity. The article first provides a background on the issues of global warming, climate change, and greenhouse gas emissions before discussing the rise and growing acceptance of the apocalyptic genre as part of the discourse on global warming. It then considers the critique of apocalypticism, arguing that it is not only a bad genre guess that can be mocked, but also a hegemonic and anti-democratic force. It concludes with a commentary on how the narration of global warming is taking place at two levels.

scholarly journals What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew P. Couldrey ◽  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
Fabio Boeira Dias ◽  
Peter Dobrohotoff ◽  
Catia M. Domingues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Flux Change ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Dynamic Sea Level

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

scholarly journals Evaluating permafrost physics in the CMIP6 models and their sensitivity to climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor J. Burke ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Gerhard Krinner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Model Estimate ◽  
Model Soil ◽  
Northern High Latitude

Abstract. Permafrost is an important component of the Arctic system and its future fate is likely to control changes in northern high latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main difference is that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 which improves their representation of the permafrost extent. The simulation of maximum summer thaw depth does not improve between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that models should include a better resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models suggest this is projected to increase by 20–30 %/°C of global mean temperature increase. Under climate change and in equilibrium this may result in an additional 80–120 Gt C/°C of permafrost carbon becoming vulnerable to decomposition.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document