scholarly journals Can We Predict the Future of Ocean Carbon Dioxide Uptake?

Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon Hall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Uptake ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ocean Carbon

A new understanding of uncertainties in climate change models allows scientists to decide which source to tackle first in order to better forecast our planet's changing climate.

scholarly journals Methane, Climate Change, and Our Uncertain Future

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Dean
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uncertain Future

Methane is generally considered secondary to carbon dioxide in its importance to climate change, but what role might methane play in the future if global temperatures continue to rise?

scholarly journals A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

scholarly journals The future of carbon dioxide removal must be transdisciplinary

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 20200038
Author(s):  
Tamara Jane Zelikova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Holistic Research

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) represents a suite of pathways to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and mitigate climate change. The importance of CDR has expanded in recent years as emission reductions are not at pace to meet climate goals. This CDR-themed issue brings together diverse perspectives in order to identify opportunities to integrate across CDR disciplines, create a more holistic research agenda and inform how CDR is deployed. The individual papers within the issue discuss engineered and nature-based CDR approaches as well as the broader social and behavioural dimensions of CDR development and deployment. Here, I summarize the main take-aways from these individual papers and present a path for integrating key lessons across disciplines to ensure CDR is scaled equitably and sustainably to deliver on its climate mitigation promise.

Dragonfly assemblages in four Mediterranean wetlands of Samos Island, Greece (Odonata)

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-385
Author(s):  
Mathias Kalfayan ◽  
Jan R. E. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Brackish Lake ◽  
Mediterranean Wetlands ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Number Of Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
Variable Hydrology ◽  
Main Factor

Dragonflies (Odonata) are considered to be valuable indicators of hydroecosystems. This study reports the composition of the dragonfly assemblages in four wetlands of Samos Island, Greece, in a geographic area especially vulnerable to climate change where a trend towards a drier climate has been observed in the last decades. Dragonfly assemblages have not yet been studied on Samos. The analysis based on the number of different species and their autochthony revealed clear differences among the wetlands. The eutrophic Glyfada Lake, despite its variable hydrology resulting from drought – the seasonal decrease in water availability – harboured the largest diversity of dragonflies, larger than the oligotrophic Mesokampos Lake. The assemblage of the spring and rivulet at Mytilini, although also influenced by drought, had its own set of species of high autochthony. The seasonal brackish lake and marsh of Psili Ammos had the lowest number of species and was dominated by one very abundant breeding species. Drought was the main factor affecting the number and composition of species. The collected data create a reference for the future monitoring of trends in the composition of odonatofauna under the changing climate of Samos Island.

scholarly journals Reservoir operation based on evolutionary algorithms and multi-criteria decision-making under climate change and uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 332-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Ehteram ◽  
Sayed Farhad Mousavi ◽  
Hojat Karami ◽  
Saeed Farzin ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Particle Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Change Models ◽  
The Future

Abstract This study investigated reservoir operation under climate change for a base period (1981–2000) and future period (2011–2030). Different climate change models, based on A2 scenario, were used and the HAD-CM3 model, considering uncertainty, among other climate change models was found to be the best model. For the Dez basin in Iran, considered as a case study, the climate change models predicted increasing temperature from 1.16 to 2.5°C and decreasing precipitation for the future period. Also, runoff volume for the basin would decrease and irrigation demand for the downstream consumption would increase for the future period. A hybrid framework (optimization-climate change) was used for reservoir operation and the bat algorithm was used for minimization of irrigation deficit. A genetic algorithm and a particle swarm algorithm were selected for comparison with the bat algorithm. The reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability indices, based on a multi-criteria model, were used to select the base method for reservoir operation. Results showed the volume of water to be released for the future period, based on all evolutionary algorithms used, was less than for the base period, and the bat algorithm with high-reliability index and low vulnerability index performed better among other evolutionary algorithms.

Climate change effects on UK shelf sea’s connectivity and hydrographic properties

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Gabriela Mayorga Adame ◽  
James Harle ◽  
Jason Holt ◽  
Artioli Yuri ◽  
Sarah Wakelin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Change Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
Shelf Sea ◽  
The Uk

<p>Climate change is expected to cause important changes in ocean physics, which will in turn have important effects on the marine ecosystems. The ReCICLE project (<strong>Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL seas Ecosystems</strong>) aims to identify and quantify the envelope of response to climate change of lower trophic level shelf-sea ecosystems and their functional interactions, in order to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem goods and services in the UK shelf seas. The central tool for this work is an ensemble of coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical ecosystem models NEMO-ERSEM Atlantic Margin Model configuration at 7 km horizontal resolution (AMM7), forced by different CIMP5 global climate change models to generate downscaled scenarios for future decades.</p><p>Changes in connectivity patterns are expected to affect coastal populations of marine organisms in shelf seas. Holt et al 2018 (GRL https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078878) showed the potential for radical reorganization of the North Sea circulation in earlier simulations. To assess this particular issue particle tracking experiments are carried out during two 10 year time slices, in the recent past (2000-2010) and in the future (2040-2050) in ensemble members of the ReCICLE AMM7 regional downscaling showing contrasting circulation patterns. Surface particles were uniformly seeded in the UK shelf seas every month and tracked for 30 days. The resulting particle trajectories are analysed with cluster analysis technics aiming to determine if persistent oceanographic boundaries re-arrange in the future climate scenarios. The ecological effects of circulation and water masses changes in the future ocean are discussed from a Lagrangian perspective.</p><p> </p>

Shifting tourism flows in a changing climate: policy implications for the Caribbean

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwame Emmanuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Tourism Flows

Purpose – Population growth, climate change, shortages of oil and other resources will have dramatic implication on where, when and how tourists travel in the future. This will also reshape the tourism industry for the future. Knowing what will happen in the future has always fascinated mankind from time immemorial. However, forecasting and predictions require not only a systematic approach to development but also an imagination and the ability to think and see beyond the ordinary. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to underscore the projected northward shift in tourism demand due to the global impacts of climate change and the lack of policy attention. Design/methodology/approach – A rapid assessment of the literature was conducted to explore tourism flows to the Caribbean in a changing climate and recommendations for adaptation. Findings – Tourism demand from major markets such as Europe and North America may be reduced significantly as tourists travel to other destinations, which are closer to home and have a more favourable climate. Regulation of carbon emissions from long haul flights will also influence demand substitution. Despite this projection, current policies in the Caribbean promote further development of the climate sensitive 3S model without anticipating a possible decrease in demand in the future. Research limitations/implications – Research implications include a recalibration of tourism policy and diversification of Caribbean tourism and economies. Originality/value – Recommendations are outlined for a critical issue that is not on the policy agenda.

scholarly journals Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Oryx ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Shaun W. Molloy ◽  
Allan H. Burbidge ◽  
Sarah Comer ◽  
Robert A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
The Future

AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

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