Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Eilola ◽  
S. Mårtensson ◽  
H. E. M. Meier
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. Markus Meier ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Cyril Dutheil ◽  
Florian Börgel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Nutrient Input ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Marine Biogeochemistry ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea including marine biogeochemistry were analyzed and compared with earlier published projections. The Baltic Sea, located in northern Europe, is a semi-enclosed, shallow and tide-less sea with seasonal sea ice cover in its northern sub-basins and a long residence time causing oxygen depletion in the bottom water of the southern sub-basins. With the help of dynamical downscaling using a regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, four global Earth System Models were regionalized. As the regional climate model does not include components for the terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, an additional catchment and coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea were used. In addition to previous scenario simulations, the impact of various water level scenarios was examined as well. The projections suggest higher water temperatures, a shallower mixed layer with sharper thermocline during summer, reduced sea ice cover and intensified mixing in the northern Baltic Sea during winter compared to present climate. Both frequency and duration of marine heat waves would increase significantly, in particular in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic Sea (except in regions with frequent upwelling). Due to the uncertainties in projections of the regional wind, water cycle and global sea level rise, robust and statistically significant salinity changes cannot be identified. The impact of changing climate on biogeochemical cycling is considerable but in any case smaller than the impact of plausible nutrient input changes. Implementing the proposed Baltic Sea Action Plan, a nutrient input abatement plan for the entire catchment area, would result in a significantly improved ecological status of the Baltic Sea and reduced hypoxic area also in future climate, strengthening the resilience of the Baltic Sea against anticipated future climate change. While our findings about changes in variables of the heat cycle mainly confirm earlier scenario simulations, earlier projections for salinity and biogeochemical cycles differ substantially because of different experimental setups and different bioavailable nutrient input scenarios. During the time in which this paper was prepared, shortly before submission, Christian Dieterich passed away (1964–2021). This sad event marked the end of the life of a distinguished oceanographer and climate scientist who made important contributions to the climate modeling of the Baltic Sea, North Sea and North Atlantic regions. 

scholarly journals Assimilating high-resolution sea surface temperature data improves the ocean forecast potential in the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 525-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Liu ◽  
Weiwei Fu
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Dependent Observations ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We assess the impact of assimilating the satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data on the Baltic forecast, particularly on the forecast of ocean variables related to SST. For this purpose, a multivariable data assimilation (DA) system has been developed based on a Nordic version of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO-Nordic). We use Kalman-type filtering to assimilate the observations in the coastal regions. Further, a low-rank approximation of the stationary background error covariance metrics is used at the analysis steps. High-resolution SST from the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF) is assimilated to verify the performance of the DA system. The assimilation run shows very stable improvements of the model simulation as compared with both independent and dependent observations. The SST prediction of NEMO-Nordic is significantly enhanced by the DA forecast. Temperatures are also closer to observations in the DA forecast than the model results in the water above 100 m in the Baltic Sea. In the deeper layers, salinity is also slightly improved. In addition, we find that sea level anomaly (SLA) is improved with the SST assimilation. Comparisons with independent tide gauge data show that the overall root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced by 1.8 % and the overall correlation coefficient is slightly increased. Moreover, the sea-ice concentration forecast is improved considerably in the Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea during the sea-ice formation period, respectively.

scholarly journals Numerical modelling of thermodynamics and dynamics of sea ice in the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Herman ◽  
J. Jedrasik ◽  
M. Kowalewski
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. In this paper, a numerical dynamic-thermo-dynamic sea-ice model for the Baltic Sea is used to analyze the variability of ice conditions in three winter seasons. The modelling results are validated with station (water temperature) and satellite data (ice concentration) as well as by qualitative comparisons with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ice charts. Analysis of the results addresses two major questions. One concerns effects of meteorological forcing on the spatio-temporal distribution of ice concentration in the Baltic. Patterns of correlations between air temperature, wind speed, and ice-covered area are demonstrated to be different in larger, more open sub-basins (e.g., the Bothnian Sea) than in the smaller ones (e.g., the Bothnian Bay). Whereas the correlations with the air temperature are positive in both cases, the influence of wind is pronounced only in large basins, leading to increase/decrease of areas with small/large ice concentrations, respectively. The other question concerns the role of ice dynamics in the evolution of the ice cover. By means of simulations with the dynamic model turned on and off, the ice dynamics is shown to play a crucial role in interactions between the ice and the upper layers of the water column, especially during periods with highly varying wind speeds and directions. In particular, due to the fragmentation of the ice cover and the modified surface fluxes, the ice dynamics influences the rate of change of the total ice volume, in some cases by as much as 1 km3 per day. As opposed to most other numerical studies on the sea-ice in the Baltic Sea, this work concentrates on the short-term variability of the ice cover and its response to the synoptic-scale forcing.

scholarly journals Multimodel estimates of the changes in the Baltic Sea ice cover during the present century

2014 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 22617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Luomaranta ◽  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
Kirsti Jylhä ◽  
Hilppa Gregow ◽  
Jari Haapala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic

scholarly journals 100 years of atmospheric and marine observations at the Finnish Utö Island in the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauri Laakso ◽  
Santtu Mikkonen ◽  
Achim Drebs ◽  
Anu Karjalainen ◽  
Pentti Pirinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Seawater Temperature ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Research Station ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Marine Research ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Utö Atmospheric and Marine Research Station introduced in this paper is located on Utö Island (59∘46.84′ N, 21∘22.13′ E) at the outer edge of the Archipelago Sea, by the Baltic Sea towards the Baltic Proper. Meteorological observations at the island started in 1881 and vertical profiling of seawater temperature and salinity in 1900. Since 1980, the number of observations at Utö has rapidly increased, with a large number of new meteorological, air quality, aerosol, optical and greenhouse gas parameters, and recently, a variety of marine observations. In this study, we analyze long-term changes of atmospheric temperature, cloudiness, sea salinity, temperature and ice cover. Our main dataset consists of 248 367 atmospheric temperature observations, 1632 quality-assured vertical seawater temperature and salinity profiles and 8565 ice maps, partly digitized for this project. We also use North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), major Baltic inflow (MBI) and Baltic Sea river runoff data from the literature as reference variables to our data. Our analysis is based on a statistical method utilizing a dynamic linear model. The results show an increase in the atmospheric temperature at Utö, but the increase is significantly smaller than on land areas and has taken place only since the early 1980s, with a rate of 0.4 ∘C decade−1 during the last 35 years. We also see an increase in seawater temperatures, especially on the surface, with an increase of 0.3 ∘C decade−1 for the last 100 years. In deeper water layers, the increase is smaller and influenced by vertical mixing, which is modulated by inflow of saline water from the North Sea and freshwater inflow from rivers and by wind-driven processes influenced by the local bathymetry. The date when air temperature in the spring exceeds +5 ∘C became 5 days earlier from the period 1951–1980 to the period 1981–2010 and the date when sea surface water temperature exceeds +4 ∘C changed to 9 days earlier. Sea ice cover duration at Utö shows a decrease of approximately 50 % during the last 35 years. Based on the combined results, it is possible that the climate at Utö has changed into a new phase, in which the sea ice no longer reduces the local temperature increase caused by the global warming.

scholarly journals Numerical modelling of thermodynamics and dynamics of sea ice in the Baltic Sea

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-157
Author(s):  
A. Herman ◽  
J. Jedrasik ◽  
M. Kowalewski
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. In this paper, a numerical dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model for the Baltic Sea is used to analyze the variability of ice conditions in three winter seasons. The modelling results are validated with station (water temperature) and satellite data (ice concentration) as well as by qualitative comparisons with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ice charts. Analysis of the results addresses two major questions. One concerns effects of meteorological forcing on the spatio-temporal distribution of ice concentration in the Baltic. Patterns of correlations between air temperature, wind speed, and ice-covered area are demonstrated to be different in larger, more open sub-basins (e.g., the Bothnian Sea) than in the smaller ones (e.g., the Bothnian Bay). Whereas the correlations with the air temperature are positive in both cases, the influence of wind is pronounced only in large basins, leading to increase/decrease of areas with small/large ice concentrations, respectively. The other question concerns the role of ice dynamics in the evolution of the ice cover. By means of simulations with the dynamic model turned on and off, the ice dynamics is shown to play a crucial role in interactions between the ice and the upper layers of the water column, especially during periods with highly varying wind speeds and directions. In particular, due to the fragmentation of the ice cover and the modified surface fluxes, the ice dynamics influences the rate of change of the total ice volume, in some cases by as much as 1 km3 per day. As opposed to most other numerical studies on the sea-ice in the Baltic Sea, this work concentrates on the short-term variability of the ice cover and its response to the synoptic-scale forcing.

Behavioural responses of voles to simulated risk of predation by a native and an alien mustelid: an odour manipulation experiment

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Fey ◽  
Peter B. Banks ◽  
Hannu Ylönen ◽  
Erkki Korpimäki
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Predation Risk ◽  
Myodes Glareolus ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Behavioural Responses ◽  
Alien Predator ◽  
Risk Of Predation ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

Context. Potential mammalian prey commonly use the odours of their co-evolved predators to manage their risks of predation. But when the risk comes from an unknown source of predation, odours might not be perceived as dangerous, and anti-predator responses may fail, except possibly if the alien predator is of the same archetype as a native predator. Aims. In the present study we examined anti-predator behavioural responses of voles from the outer archipelagos of the Baltic Sea, south-western Finland, where they have had no resident mammalian predators in recent history. Methods. We investigated responses of field voles (Microtus agrestis) to odours of native least weasels (Mustela nivalis) and a recently invading alien predator, the American mink (Mustela vison), in laboratory. We also studied the short-term responses of free-ranging field voles and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) to simulated predation risk by alien mink on small islands in the outer archipelago of the Baltic Sea. Key results. In the laboratory, voles avoided odour cues of native weasel but not of alien mink. It is possible that the response to mink is a context dependent learned response which could not be induced in the laboratory, whereas the response to weasel is innate. In the field, however, voles reduced activity during their normal peak-activity times at night as a response to simulated alien-mink predation risk. No other shifts in space use or activity in safer microhabitats or denser vegetation were apparent. Conclusions. Voles appeared to recognise alien minks as predators from their odours in the wild. However, reduction in activity is likely to be only a short-term immediate response to mink presence, which is augmented by longer-term strategies of habitat shift. Because alien mink still strongly suppresses vole dynamics despite these anti-predator responses, we suggest that behavioural naiveté may be the primary factor in the impact of an alien predator on native prey. Implications. Prey naiveté has long been considered as the root cause of the devastating impacts of alien predators, whereby native prey simply fail to recognise and respond to the novel predation risk. Our results reveal a more complex form of naiveté whereby native prey appeared to recognise alien predators as a threat but their response is ultimately inadequate. Thus, recognition alone is unlikely to afford protection for native prey from alien-predator impacts. Thus, management strategies that, for example, train prey in recognition of novel threats must induce effective responses if they are expected to succeed.

scholarly journals Operational SAR-based sea ice drift monitoring over the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Karvonen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Vector Fields ◽  
Phase Correlation ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Sar Images ◽  
Envisat Asar ◽  
Ice Drift ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. An algorithm for computing ice drift from pairs of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images covering a common area has been developed at FMI. The algorithm has been developed based on the C-band SAR data over the Baltic Sea. It is based on phase correlation in two scales (coarse and fine) with some additional constraints. The algorithm has been running operationally in the Baltic Sea from the beginning of 2011, using Radarsat-1 ScanSAR wide mode and Envisat ASAR wide swath mode data. The resulting ice drift fields are publicly available as part of the MyOcean EC project. The SAR-based ice drift vectors have been compared to the drift vectors from drifter buoys in the Baltic Sea during the first operational season, and also these validation results are shown in this paper. Also some navigationally useful sea ice quantities, which can be derived from ice drift vector fields, are presented.

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