Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
B. F. Prahl ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
J. P. Kropp ◽  
O. Burghoff ◽  
H. Held
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Small Scale Damage

scholarly journals What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 1077-1091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuqing Zhang ◽  
Y. Qiang Sun ◽  
Linus Magnusson ◽  
Roberto Buizza ◽  
Shian-Jiann Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Order Of Magnitude

Abstract Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). This predictability limit is studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 9-km operational model) and identical-twin experiments of the U.S. Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS; 3 km). Results suggest that the predictability limit for midlatitude weather may indeed exist and is intrinsic to the underlying dynamical system and instabilities even if the forecast model and the initial conditions are nearly perfect. Currently, a skillful forecast lead time of midlatitude instantaneous weather is around 10 days, which serves as the practical predictability limit. Reducing the current-day initial-condition uncertainty by an order of magnitude extends the deterministic forecast lead times of day-to-day weather by up to 5 days, with much less scope for improving prediction of small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms. Achieving this additional predictability limit can have enormous socioeconomic benefits but requires coordinated efforts by the entire community to design better numerical weather models, to improve observations, and to make better use of observations with advanced data assimilation and computing techniques.

scholarly journals Overview and first results of the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX): a field campaign to observe the formation of gusts using a Doppler lidar

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 91-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Pantillon ◽  
Andreas Wieser ◽  
Bianca Adler ◽  
Ulrich Corsmeier ◽  
Peter Knippertz
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Doppler Lidar ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Layer Structures ◽  
First Results ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Upper Rhine ◽  
Waste Deposit

Abstract. Wind gusts are responsible for most damages in winter storms over central Europe, but capturing their small scale and short duration is a challenge for both models and observations. This motivated the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) dedicated to investigate the formation of gusts during the passage of extratropical cyclones. The field campaign took place during the winter 2016–2017 on a former waste deposit located close to Karlsruhe in the Upper Rhine Valley in southwest Germany. Twelve extratropical cyclones were sampled during WASTEX with a Doppler lidar system performing vertical scans in the mean wind direction and complemented with a Doppler C-band radar and a 200 m instrumented tower. First results are provided here for the three most intense storms and include a potential sting jet, a unique direct observation of a convective gust and coherent boundary-layer structures of strong winds.

scholarly journals Performance of storm damage functions: a sectoral impact model intercomparison

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (9) ◽  
pp. 5835-5887
Author(s):  
B. F. Prahl ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
O. Burghoff ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Skewed Distribution ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Theoretical Considerations ◽  
Local Variability

Abstract. Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties on both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic damage-wind relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two wind data sources, direct observation by the German Weather Service and ERA Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of wind data indicates little impact for the evaluation of German storm loss, local variability exhibits dependence between model and data choices. Based on our analysis, we favour the application of two probabilistic approaches which fare best in terms of the accuracy of their expected value and overall exhibit the lowest amount of variability.

Vibration-Based Detection of Small-Scale Damage on a Bridge Deck

2007 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
pp. 1257-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengjie Zhou ◽  
Leon D. Wegner ◽  
Bruce F. Sparling
Keyword(s):  
Bridge Deck ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Small Scale Damage

Analysis of sprite events during small-scale winter thunderstorms in northern Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Pizzuti ◽  
Serge Soula ◽  
Janusz Mlynarczyk ◽  
Alec Bennett ◽  
Martin Fullekrug
Keyword(s):  
Lower Ionosphere ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Electromagnetic Signal ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Transient Luminous Events ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
The University

<p>Lightning occurrence throughout Europe is at a minimum in winter and mostly confined around the coastlines of the Mediterranean. Limited extent winter thunderstorms at higher latitudes are nevertheless found to produce intense CG strokes that may result in short-lived optical phenomena above thunderstorms in the region between the stratosphere and the lower ionosphere that are collectively referred to as transient luminous events (TLEs). Recent examples of sprite observations have been reported in northern Europe, at latitudes larger than about 49N, during very low flash-rate and small-scale winter storms. This study focuses on the characteristics of the sprite-producing strokes and the context in which they occurred. The sprite parent strokes are identified through the Météorage lightning detection network, providing additional information on the polarity and the peak current. A further characterization of the electromagnetic signal associated with these events is performed combining data from a series of quasi-electrostatic lightning sensors deployed in UK, a wideband ELF-VLF-LF radio receiver at the University of Bath (UK) and an ELF station in Poland, used for the calculations of the related current moment waveform (CMW) and charge moment change (CMC). The characteristics of the thunderstorm, as the cloud top temperature (CTT), the size and the meteorological context, are considered in order to better understand the conditions leading to the observed events. </p>

Strength of silicon containing nanoscale flaws

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 657-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonia Pajares ◽  
Marina Chumakov ◽  
Brian R. Lawn
Keyword(s):  
Silicate Glass ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Local Stress ◽  
Silicon Surfaces ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Stress Concentrations ◽  
Subthreshold Region ◽  
Fundamental Nature ◽  
Glass Surfaces ◽  
Small Scale Damage

Silicon is a principal material in submicrometer-scale devices. Components in such devices are subject to intense local stress concentrations from nanoscale contacts during function. Questions arise as to the fundamental nature and extent of any strength-degrading damage incurred at such contacts on otherwise pristine surfaces. Here, a simple bilayer test procedure is adapted to probe the strengths of selected areas of silicon surfaces after nanoindentation with a Berkovich diamond. Analogous tests on silicate glass surfaces are used as a control. The strengths increase with diminishing contact penetration in both materials, even below thresholds for visible cracking at the impression corners. However, the strength levels in the subthreshold region are much lower in the silicon, indicating exceptionally high brittleness and vulnerability to small-scale damage in this material. The results have important implications in the design of devices with silicon components.

scholarly journals Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 769-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. F. Prahl ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
O. Burghoff ◽  
J. P. Kropp
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Skewed Distribution ◽  
Wind Gust ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation

Abstract. Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind–damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012).

scholarly journals About the influence of elevation model quality and small-scale damage functions on flood damage estimation

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3327-3334 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Boettle ◽  
J. P. Kropp ◽  
L. Reiber ◽  
O. Roithmeier ◽  
D. Rybski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Damage Function ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Elevation Model

Abstract. The assessment of coastal flood risks in a particular region requires the estimation of typical damages caused by storm surges of certain characteristics and annualities. Although the damage depends on a multitude of factors, including flow velocity, duration of flood, precaution, etc., the relationship between flood events and the corresponding average damages is usually described by a stage-damage function, which considers the maximum water level as the only damage influencing factor. Starting with different (microscale) building damage functions we elaborate a macroscopic damage function for the entire case study area Kalundborg (Denmark) on the basis of multiple coarse-graining methods and assumptions of the hydrological connectivity. We find that for small events, the macroscopic damage function mostly depends on the properties of the elevation model, while for large events it strongly depends on the assumed building damage function. In general, the damage in the case study increases exponentially up to a certain level and then less steep.

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