scholarly journals Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew F. Bell ◽  
Mark Naylor ◽  
Michael J. Heap ◽  
Ian G. Main
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Material Failure ◽  
Forecast Method

Spectral and dynamical hints on the time scale of preparation of the 5 April 2003 explosion at Stromboli volcano

2006 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Carniel ◽  
Ramon Ortiz ◽  
Mauro Di Cecca
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Data ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Material Failure ◽  
Stromboli Volcano ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Sector Collapse ◽  
Strombolian Activity ◽  
Dynamical Phase ◽  
Paroxysmal Event ◽  
Sciara Del Fuoco

Stromboli volcano is well known for its continuous strombolian activity. Moreover, the volcano occasionally shows effusive phases, the latest in 1985–1986. On 28 December 2002 Stromboli entered a new effusive phase, accompanied by different paroxysmal events that led to considerable hazards for inhabitants and tourists on the island of Stromboli. On 30 December 2002 a major sector collapse affected the Sciara del Fuoco slope and initiated a tsunami. On 5 April 2003 a powerful explosion, which can be compared in size with the most recent explosion in 1930, covered a large part of the normally tourist accessible summit area with bombs. As this explosion was not forecasted, although the island was by then effectively monitored by a dense deployment of instruments, in this paper, we tackle the problem of highlighting the time scale of preparation of this event and conduct a search for possible precursors. For this purpose, we analyze the seismic data preceding the paroxysm with spectral and dynamical methods, highlighting that this paroxysmal event can be seen as the final result of a dynamical phase that started at least 2.5 h before the event. Therefore, this is the time scale during which the search can and should be made for possible precursors. Moreover, the application of the "material failure forecast" method suggests that this final dynamical phase may be just the final acceleration of a process that was building up for at least several days prior to the event.

scholarly journals Real-time eruption forecasting using the material Failure Forecast Method with a Bayesian approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (4) ◽  
pp. 2143-2161 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Boué ◽  
P. Lesage ◽  
G. Cortés ◽  
B. Valette ◽  
G. Reyes-Dávila
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Material Failure ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Eruption Forecasting

Reconstruction of maximum temperature on Zhegu Mountain, western Sichuan Plateau (China)

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
M Keyimu ◽  
Z Li ◽  
Y Zhao ◽  
Y Dong ◽  
B Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Growth ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Southwestern China ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Western Sichuan ◽  
Relationship Analysis ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Thermal Variability

Historical temperature reconstructions at high altitudes are still insufficient in southwestern China, which is considered one of the most sensitive areas to climate change in the world. Here we developed a tree ring-width chronology of Faxon fir Abies fargesii var. faxoniana at the upper timber line on Zhegu Mountain, Miyaluo Scenic Area, western Sichuan, China. The climate-tree growth relationship analysis indicated temperature as the dominant regulator on radial tree growth in this region. The reconstruction of aggregated maximum temperature (TMX) of autumn and winter for the period 1856-2016 was achieved with a linear regression model that accounted for 43.6% of the actual variability in the common time series (1954-2016). The reconstruction identified 4 warm periods and 3 cold periods. Similarities of warm and cold periods with previously published reconstructions from nearby sites indicated the reliability of our reconstruction. The significant positive correlation between TMX reconstruction and the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index suggested a linkage between large-scale climate circulations and the thermal variability at a multi-decadal scale on the western Sichuan Plateau. We also found that solar activity exerted a strong influence on decadal temperature variability in this region. The cold periods were matched well with historical large volcanic eruptions. Our results strengthen the historical climatic information in southwestern China and contribute to further understanding the regional thermal variability as well as its driving mechanism.

Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

Tellus B ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Stephan J. Lorenz ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Thomas Raddatz ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Soil Chemical Pollution and Aggressive Pathologies

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (8) ◽  
pp. 2278-2282
Author(s):  
Stelian Ioan Morariu ◽  
Letitia Doina Duceac ◽  
Alina Costina Luca ◽  
Florina Popescu ◽  
Liliana Pavel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Scientific Progress ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
Optimal Parameters ◽  
Chemical Pollutants ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Health Physician ◽  
Solid Liquid

Maintaining the soil in optimal parameters is vital for mankind, given its essential role in providing the alimentary base, as well as its extremely slow formation and regeneration (hundreds or thousands of years). The direct and indirect pollution of the soil and especially its chemical pollution represent a corollary of other types of pollution, given that it is produced by solid, liquid and gaseous residues. It may be involved in a wide range of diseases (respiratory, cardiovascular, digestive, renal, haematological, osteoarticular, neurological) of allergic, infectious, degenerative or neoplastic nature, from infancy to the old age. Although there are natural causes of soil pollution (e.g. volcanic eruptions), most pollutants come from human activities, which are the most incriminated in its pollution, degradation and erosion at an accelerated pace. The growing concern of all nations for the adoption of measures to limit the chemical pollution of the soil is partially found so far in viable and effective solutions intended to combat soil contamination and degradation and ensure its restoration. Chemical industrialization leads to technical and scientific progress, but at the same time it can develop related pathologies, which means that the role of the occupational health physician is essential in ensuring prophylaxis and the early detection of occupational diseases. Besides that, the role of the pediatrician is equally precious for the detection of specific diseases caused by chemical pollutants to children, because they will develop into adults with pathological stigma.The chemical pollution of the soil is a major challenge for ecologists, given that it is an important risk factor for many types of afflictions. It requires maximum attention from civil society, health care professionals and government institutions. The specialist in occupational medicine, as well as the pediatrician bear an essential responsibility in both, prevention and treatment.

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