scholarly journals Inferring change points and nonlinear trends in multivariate time series: Application to West African monsoon onset timings estimation

2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (D5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Gazeaux ◽  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Philippe Naveau ◽  
Alexis Hannart
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
West African ◽  
Change Points ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Nonlinear Trends

scholarly journals Characterization of the Diurnal Cycle of the West African Monsoon around the Monsoon Onset

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (15) ◽  
pp. 4014-4032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Serge Janicot ◽  
Philippe Drobinski
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
West African ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Nocturnal Jet ◽  
Heat Low

Abstract This study investigates the diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon and its seasonal modulation with particular focus on the monsoon onset period. A composite analysis around the monsoon onset date is applied to the 1979–2000 NCEP–DOE reanalysis and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. This study points out two independent modes describing the space–time variability of the diurnal cycle of low-level wind and temperature. While the first mode appears to belong to a gradual and seasonal pattern linked with the northward migration of the whole monsoon system, the second mode is characterized by more rapid time variations with a peak of both temperature and wind anomalies around the monsoon onset date. This latter mode is connected with the time pattern of a nocturnal jet reaching its highest values around the onset date. The diurnal cycle of dry and deep convection is also investigated through the same method. A distinct diurnal cycle of deep convection in the ITCZ is evidenced with a peak at 1200 UTC before the monsoon onset, and at 1800 UTC after the monsoon onset. Strong ascending motions associated with deep convection may generate a gravity wave that propagates northward and reaches the Saharan heat low region 12 h later. The diurnal cycle of the dry convection in the Saharan heat low is similar during the preonset and the postonset periods with a peak at night (0000 UTC) consistent with the nocturnal jet intensification. This convection is localized at 15° and 20°N before and after the monsoon onset, respectively. Both during the first rainy season in spring and the monsoon season in summer, the nocturnal jet brings moisture in the boundary layer north of the ITCZ favoring humidification and initiation of new convective cells, helping the northward progression of the ITCZ. At the end of the summer the southward return of the ITCZ is associated with the disappearance of the core of the monsoon jet. Despite a lot of similarities between the results obtained using NCEP–DOE and ERA-40 reanalyses, giving confidence in the significance of these results, some differences are identified, especially in the diurnal cycle of deep convection, which limit the interpretation of some of these results and highlight discrepancies in the reanalyses.

The role of the Indian monsoon onset in the West African monsoon onset: observations and AGCM nudged simulations

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 965-983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Serge Janicot ◽  
Sophie Bastin ◽  
Rémy Roca ◽  
Elsa Mohino
Keyword(s):  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

scholarly journals Definition and predictability of an OLR-based West African monsoon onset

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1787-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Fontaine ◽  
Samuel Louvet ◽  
Pascal Roucou
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
West African ◽  
African Monsoon

scholarly journals The West African Monsoon Onset: A Concise Comparison of Definitions

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8673-8694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Caroline L. Bain ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
West African ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Multiple Datasets ◽  
Monsoon Winds ◽  
Work Done ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract The onset of the West African monsoon (WAM) marks a vital time for local and regional stakeholders. While the seasonal progression of monsoon winds and the related migration of precipitation from the Guinea Coast toward the Sudan/Sahel is apparent, there exist contrasting man-made definitions of what the WAM onset means. Broadly speaking, onset can be analyzed regionally, locally, or over a designated intermediate scale. There are at least 18 distinct definitions of the WAM onset in publication, with little work done on comparing observed onset from different definitions or comparing onset realizations across different datasets and resolutions. Here, nine definitions have been calculated using multiple datasets of different metrics at different resolutions. It is found that mean regional onset dates are consistent across multiple datasets and different definitions. There is low interannual variability in regional onset, suggesting that regional seasonal forecasting of the onset provides few benefits over climatology. In contrast, local onsets show high spatial, interannual, and interdefinition variability. Furthermore, it is found that there is little correlation between local onset dates and regional onset dates across West Africa, implying a disharmony between regional measures of onset and the experience on a local scale. The results of this study show that evaluation of seasonal monsoon onset forecasts is far from straightforward. Given a seasonal forecasting model, it is possible to simultaneously have a good and a bad prediction of monsoon onset simply through selection of the onset definition and observational dataset used for comparison.

scholarly journals Model Simulations of Complex Dust Emissions over the Sahara during the West African Monsoon Onset

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Cavazos-Guerra ◽  
Martin C. Todd
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
3D Structure ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
West African ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Dynamical Structure ◽  
The West ◽  
Strong Basis ◽  
African Monsoon

The existing limitations in ground-based observations in remote areas in West Africa determine the dependence on numerical models to represent the atmospheric mechanisms that contribute to dust outbreaks at different space-time scales. In this work, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model using the GOCART dust scheme is evaluated. The period comprises the West African Monsoon onset phase (the 7th to 12th of June, 2006) coinciding with the AMMA Special Observing Period (SOP). Different features in the horizontal and vertical dynamical structure of the Saharan atmosphere are analyzed with a combination of satellite and ground-based observations and model experimentation at 10 and 30 km model resolution. The main features of key Saharan dust processes during summer are identifiable, and WRF-CHEM replicates these adequately. Observations and model analyses have shown that cold pools (haboobs) contributed a substantial proportion of total dust during the study period. The comparative analysis between observations and WRF-Chem simulations demonstrates the model efficiency to simulate the spatial and 3D structure of dust transport over the Sahara and Sahel. There is, therefore, a strong basis for accurate forecasting of dust events associated with synoptic scale events when model dust emission parameterization is suitably calibrated.

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