scholarly journals Regional distribution of sea level changes resulting from enhanced greenhouse warming in the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuo Suzuki ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii
2000 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 197-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Wild ◽  
Atsumu Ohmura

AbstractFor projecting future sea level, the mass-balance changes on Greenland and Antarctica are considered to be crucial. Promising tools for such estimates are general circulation models (GCM). Until recently, a major impediment was their coarse grid resolution (3°-6°) causing substantial uncertainties in the mass-balance calculations of the poorly resolved ice sheets. The present study is based on a new climate-change experiment of the highest resolution currently feasible (1.1 °) performed with the ECHAM4 T106 GCM, thereby increasing confidence in the projected mass-balance and sea-level changes. This new experiment, with doubled CO2 concentration, suggests that the mass gain in Antarctica due to increased accumulation exceeds the melt-induced mass loss in Greenland by a factor of three. The resulting mass-balance change on both ice sheets is equivalent to a net sea-level decrease of 0.6 mm a"1 under doubled CO2 conditions. This may compensate for a significant portion of the melt-induced sea-level rise from the smaller glaciers and ice caps, thus leaving thermal expansion as the dominant factor for sea-level rise over the next decades. This compensating effect, however, no longer applies should atmospheric CO2 concentration reach levels well above "doubled the present value". On the contrary, under these conditions, the greenhouse warming would become large enough to induce substantial melting also on the Antarctic ice sheet, thereby significantly accelerating global sea-level rise.


2011 ◽  
Vol 76 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 206-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Francesc M. Calafat ◽  
William Llovel ◽  
Damià Gomis ◽  
Benoit Meyssignac

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Alexandra Toimil ◽  
Benoit Meyssignac ◽  
Iñigo Losada

<p>Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major concern for coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion in the decades to come. Lately, the value of high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs) to inform stakeholders with low-uncertainty tolerance has been increasingly recognized. Here, we provide high-end projections of SLR-induced sandy shoreline retreats for Europe by the end of the 21st century based on the conservative Bruun rule. Our HESs rely on the upper bound of the RCP8.5 scenario “likely-range” and on high-end estimates of the different components of sea-level projections provided in recent literature. For both HESs, SLR is projected to be higher than 1 m by 2100 for most European coasts. For the strongest HES, the maximum coastal sea-level change of 1.9 m is projected in the North Sea and Mediterranean areas. This translates into a median pan-European coastline retreat of 140 m for the moderate HES and into more than 200 m for the strongest HES. The magnitude and regional distribution of SLR-induced shoreline change projections, however, utterly depend on the local nearshore slope characteristics and the regional distribution of sea-level changes. For some countries, especially in Northern Europe, the impacts of high-end sea-level scenarios are disproportionally high compared to those of likely scenarios.</p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 824-834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Piecuch ◽  
Rui M. Ponte

Abstract Global-mean sea level change partly reflects volumetric expansion of the oceans because of density change, otherwise known as global-mean steric sea level change. Owing to nonlinearities in the equation of state of seawater, the nature of processes contributing to recent observed global-mean steric sea level changes has not been well understood. Using a data-constrained ocean state estimate, global-mean steric sea level change over 1993–2003 is revisited, and contributions from ocean transports and surface exchanges are quantified using closed potential temperature and salinity budgets. Analyses demonstrate that estimated decadal global-mean steric sea level change results mainly from a slight, time-mean imbalance between atmospheric forcing and ocean transports over the integration period: surface heat and freshwater exchanges produce a trend in global-mean steric sea level that is mainly offset by the redistribution of potential temperature and salinity through small-scale diffusion and large-scale advection. A set of numerical experiments demonstrates that global-mean steric sea level changes simulated by ocean general circulation models are sensitive to the regional distribution of ocean heat and freshwater content changes.


Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Alexandra Toimil ◽  
Benoit Meyssignac ◽  
Iñigo J. Losada

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major concern for coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion in the decades to come. Lately, the value of high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs) to inform stakeholders with low-uncertainty tolerance has been increasingly recognized. Here, we provide high-end projections of SLR-induced sandy shoreline retreats for Europe by the end of the 21st century based on the conservative Bruun rule. Our HESs rely on the upper bound of the RCP8.5 scenario “likely-range” and on high-end estimates of the different components of sea-level projections provided in recent literature. For both HESs, SLR is projected to be higher than 1 m by 2100 for most European coasts. For the strongest HES, the maximum coastal sea-level change of 1.9 m is projected in the North Sea and Mediterranean areas. This translates into a median pan-European coastline retreat of 140 m for the moderate HES and into more than 200 m for the strongest HES. The magnitude and regional distribution of SLR-induced shoreline change projections, however, utterly depend on the local nearshore slope characteristics and the regional distribution of sea-level changes. For some countries, especially in Northern Europe, the impacts of high-end sea-level scenarios are disproportionally high compared to those of likely scenarios.


10.1029/ft354 ◽  
1989 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Dennison ◽  
Edwin J. Anderson ◽  
Jack D. Beuthin ◽  
Edward Cotter ◽  
Richard J. Diecchio ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Nikolay Esin ◽  
Nikolay Esin ◽  
Vladimir Ocherednik ◽  
Vladimir Ocherednik

A mathematical model describing the change in the Black Sea level depending on the Aegean Sea level changes is presented in the article. Calculations have shown that the level of the Black Sea has been repeating the course of the Aegean Sea level for the last at least 6,000 years. And the level of the Black Sea above the Aegean Sea level in the tens of centimeters for this period of time.


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