scholarly journals Vertical structure of anthropogenic zonal-mean atmospheric circulation change

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Woollings
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

scholarly journals Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 064009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris S M Turney ◽  
Richard T Jones ◽  
David Lister ◽  
Phil Jones ◽  
Alan N Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
The South ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

scholarly journals Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Bevacqua ◽  
Giuseppe Zappa ◽  
Theodore G Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Future Direction ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

<p>Wintertime extreme precipitation from cyclone clusters, i.e. consecutive cyclones moving across the same region, can lead to flooding and devastating socio-economic impacts in Europe. Previous studies have suggested that the future direction of the changes in these events are uncertain across climate models. By employing an impact-based metric of accumulated precipitation extremes, we show that projections of cyclone clusters are instead broadly robust, i.e. consistent in sign, across models. A novel physical diagnostic shows that accumulated precipitation extremes are projected to grow by only +1.0 %/K on average across Europe, although the mean precipitation per cyclone increases by +4.7 %/K. This results from a decreased number of clustered cyclones, associated with decreased wintertime storminess, the extent of which varies from northern to southern Europe and depends on the future storyline of atmospheric circulation change. Neglecting the changes in the number of clustered cyclones, i.e. assuming that accumulated precipitation extremes would change as the mean precipitation per cyclone, would lead to overestimating the population affected by increased accumulated wintertime precipitation extremes by 130–490 million across Europe.</p>

scholarly journals Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

Abstract. Since the 2000's, a change in the atmospheric circulation over North Atlantic has favored warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice sheet (GrIS) in summer enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which do not predict any circulation change for the next century over the Atlantic. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of an atmospheric circulation change (as currently observed) in a warmer climate on future projections of the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). We compare GrIS SMB estimates from the regional climate model MAR forced by warmer reanalysis (ERA-Interim with a temperature correction of +1 °C, +1.5 °C and +2 °C at the MAR lateral boundaries) over 1980–2016 to future projections of GrIS SMB from MAR simulations forced with three GCMs over a future period for which a similar temperature increase of +1 °C, +1.5 °C and +2 °C is projected by the GCMs in comparison to 1980–1999. Mean SMB anomalies produced with warmer reanalysis over the climatologically stable period 1980–1999 is similar to those produced with MAR forced with GCMs over future periods characterized by a similar warming over Greenland. However, over the two last decades (2000–2016) when a circulation change has been observed in summer, MAR forced with warmer reanalysis suggests that the SMB decrease could be amplified by a factor of two if such atmospheric conditions will persist compared to future projections forced by GCMs for the same temperature increase but without any circulation change.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3409-3418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

Abstract. Since the 2000s, a change in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic resulting in more frequent blocking events has favoured warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer, enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which do not predict any circulation change for the next century over the North Atlantic. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of an atmospheric circulation change (as currently observed) on projections of the future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). We compare GrIS SMB estimates simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis (ERA-Interim with a temperature correction of +1, +1.5, and +2 ∘C at the MAR lateral boundaries) over 1980–2016 to projections of the future GrIS SMB from MAR simulations forced by three GCMs over selected periods for which a similar temperature increase of +1, +1.5, and +2 ∘C is projected by the GCMs in comparison to 1980–1999. Mean SMB anomalies produced with perturbed reanalysis over the climatologically stable period 1980–1999 are similar to those produced with MAR forced by GCMs over future periods characterised by a similar warming over Greenland. However, over the 2 last decades (2000–2016) when an increase in the frequency of blocking events has been observed in summer, MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis suggests that the SMB decrease could be amplified by a factor of 2 if such atmospheric conditions persist compared to projections forced by GCMs for the same temperature increase but without any circulation change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document