Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle

2008 ◽  
Vol 113 (G3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chisato Yoshikawa ◽  
Michio Kawamiya ◽  
Tomomichi Kato ◽  
Yasuhiro Yamanaka ◽  
Taroh Matsuno
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

scholarly journals Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (14) ◽  
pp. 3337-3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Friedlingstein ◽  
P. Cox ◽  
R. Betts ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
W. von Bloh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Carbon Cycle ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

scholarly journals Emergent Constraints on Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Cox
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Emergent Constraints

Abstract Purpose of Review Feedbacks between CO2-induced climate change and the carbon cycle are now routinely represented in the Earth System Models (ESMs) that are used to make projections of future climate change. The inconclusion of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections is an important advance, but has added a significant new source of uncertainty. This review assesses the potential for emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties associated with climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Recent Findings The emergent constraint technique involves using the full ensemble of models to find an across-ensemble relationship between an observable feature of the Earth System (such as a trend, interannual variation or change in seasonality) and an uncertain aspect of the future. Examples focussing on reducing uncertainties in future atmospheric CO2 concentration, carbon loss from tropical land under warming and CO2 fertilization of mid- and high-latitude photosynthesis are exemplars of these different types of emergent constraints. Summary The power of emergent constraints is that they use the enduring range in model projections to reduce uncertainty in the future of the real Earth System, but there are also risks that indiscriminate data-mining, and systematic model errors could yield misleading constraints. A hypothesis-driven theory-led approach can overcome these risks and also reveal the true promise of emergent constraints—not just as ways to reduce uncertainty in future climate change but also to catalyse advances in our understanding of the Earth System.

scholarly journals The African contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle feedback of the 21st century

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 4847-4866 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Friedlingstein ◽  
P. Cadule ◽  
S. L. Piao ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
S. Sitch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model

Abstract. Future climate change will have impact on global and regional terrestrial carbon balances. The fate of African tropical forests over the 21st century has been investigated through global coupled climate carbon cycle model simulations. Under the SRES-A2 socio-economic CO2 emission scenario of the IPCC, and using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle and climate model, IPSL-CM4-LOOP, we found that the warming over African ecosystems induces a reduction of net ecosystem productivity, making a 20% contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle positive feedback. However, the African rainforest ecosystem alone makes only a negligible contribution to the overall feedback, much smaller than the one arising from the Amazon forest. This is first because of the two times smaller area of forest in Africa, but also because of the relatively lower local land carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. This beneficial role of African forests in mitigating future climate change should be taken into account when designing forest conservation policy.

scholarly journals Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 373 (2054) ◽  
pp. 20140421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Friedlingstein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Tightly Coupled ◽  
Earth System Models

Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO 2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO 2 and climate change.

scholarly journals Prediction of Cossus Linnaeus suitable growing area in China under Future Climate change based on optimized MaxEnt Model and Geographic detector

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
hua zhang ◽  
ming li ◽  
jinyue song ◽  
wuhong han
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Mean Temperature

CossusLinnaeus is a kind of insect that causes great harm to forest trees in China, which has a great impact on the country’s agriculture and forestry, and seriously affects the stability of the ecosystem, so it is very important to predict its distribution and contain it. Most researchers use the MaxEnt model with default parameters to build models to predict the potential geographical distribution of species. Recent studies have found that in the case of default parameters, the prediction results of MaxEnt model are not only inaccurate, but also sometimes difficult to explain. In this paper, ENMeval packets are used to adjust the optimal feature combination parameters of MaxEnt model, and then the MaxEnt model with optimal parameters is used to predict the potential geographical distribution of CossusLinnaeus under present and future climatic conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is good (the area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.914), Cossus Linnaeus is mainly distributed in Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, Shandong Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi Province, Shanxi Province, Ningxia and Gansu Province, etc., which is consistent with the actual distribution results. Under future climatic conditions, the area of Cossus Linnaeus high suitable growth area will rise up 26.7% to 87.4% compared with the current one. Climate change affects the potential distribution of Cossus Linnaeus, and the top four environmental variables with contribution rate are normalized vegetation index (NDVI,40.3%), annual mean temperature (Bio1,24.1%), coldest monthly minimum temperature (Bio6,12.4%) and diurnal range of mean temperature (Bio2,9%). Under the condition of future climate change, the center of gravity of Cossus Linnaeus will move to high latitudes. This study will provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of Cossus Linnaeus and tree protection in China.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF A CLOUD FOREST INDICATOR TREE SPECIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Neto dos Santos ◽  
Ana Carolina da Silva ◽  
Pedro Higuchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Cloud Forest ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

ABSTRACT The cloud forests are threatened due to the climate change process. Investigations seeking to predict how future climate change will affect species are of great importance as they are fundamental to generating conservation strategies. We aimed to detect how climate change affects the potential geographical distribution of Drimys angustifolia Miers, a tree species that is an indicator of the upper-montane cloud forest in the Brazilian subtropical Atlantic Forest. The areas where D. angustifolia occurs were obtained from geographic coordinates available in scientific publications and the Global Biodiversity Information database. For climate niche modeling, we used the maximum entropy algorithm with 19 climate variables. Two climate change scenarios were considered for 2061-2080: one of low and one of high impact. D. angustifolia predominantly occurs in the upper-montane forests and is absent from dry and warm sites. The variables that best explained the D. angustifolia climatic niche were mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of driest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Both scenarios indicated changes towards a more tropical regional future climate. Under the low impact climate change scenario, D. angustifolia coverage declined by 68.24% (± 7.32%) across its area of potential occurrence; it declined by 79.15% (± 9.65%) under the high impact scenario. In conclusion, the results of the present study showed that D. angustifolia and its associated ecosystem are threatened by the potential impacts of future climate change. Consequently, we highlight climatically stable areas for the occurrence of D. angustifolia, such as those located in the highest parts of the mountain ranges of the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, which should be considered as priority areas for protection and conservation.

scholarly journals Managing the Carbon Cycle Requires Strong Science

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galen McKinley ◽  
Craig Carlson ◽  
Arlyn Andrews ◽  
Daniel Brown ◽  
Paty Romero-Lankao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Mitigation

For future climate change mitigation strategies to be effective, carbon cycle science must receive a major boost.

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