scholarly journals Updated estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite observations and comparison against the Hadley Centre climate model

2008 ◽  
Vol 113 (D10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Bellouin ◽  
Andy Jones ◽  
Jim Haywood ◽  
Sundar A. Christopher
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
Hadley Centre

scholarly journals Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiv Priyam Raghuraman ◽  
David Paynter ◽  
V. Ramaswamy
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Solar Spectrum ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Energy Imbalance ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

AbstractThe observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Using climate model simulations, we show that it is exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability) that this trend can be explained by internal variability. Instead, TEEI is achieved only upon accounting for the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing and the associated climate response. TEEI is driven by a large decrease in reflected solar radiation and a small increase in emitted infrared radiation. This is because recent changes in forcing and feedbacks are additive in the solar spectrum, while being nearly offset by each other in the infrared. We conclude that the satellite record provides clear evidence of a human-influenced climate system.

scholarly journals Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 10875-10933 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Cionni ◽  
V. Eyring ◽  
J. F. Lamarque ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
D. S. Stevenson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Column Ozone

Abstract. A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multi-model mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and PUCCINI) and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23 W m−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08 W m−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05 W m−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05 W m−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1 W m−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

Exposing Global Cloud Biases in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) Using Satellite Observations and Their Corresponding Instrument Simulators

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (15) ◽  
pp. 5190-5207 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Kay ◽  
B. R. Hillman ◽  
S. A. Klein ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
B. Medeiros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Realistic Representation ◽  
Model Cloud ◽  
Atmosphere Model

Abstract Satellite observations and their corresponding instrument simulators are used to document global cloud biases in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) versions 4 and 5. The model–observation comparisons show that, despite having nearly identical cloud radiative forcing, CAM5 has a much more realistic representation of cloud properties than CAM4. In particular, CAM5 exhibits substantial improvement in three long-standing climate model cloud biases: 1) the underestimation of total cloud, 2) the overestimation of optically thick cloud, and 3) the underestimation of midlevel cloud. While the increased total cloud and decreased optically thick cloud in CAM5 result from improved physical process representation, the increased midlevel cloud in CAM5 results from the addition of radiatively active snow. Despite these improvements, both CAM versions have cloud deficiencies. Of particular concern, both models exhibit large but differing biases in the subtropical marine boundary layer cloud regimes that are known to explain intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity. More generally, this study demonstrates that simulator-facilitated evaluation of cloud properties, such as amount by vertical level and optical depth, can robustly expose large and at times radiatively compensating climate model cloud biases.

scholarly journals Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4057-4072 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. Bowman ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
H. M. Worden ◽  
J.F. Lamarque ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
High Bias

Abstract. We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5–20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5–10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005–2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120 mW m−2 OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39 ± 41 m Wm−2 relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (R2 = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750–2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100 m Wm−2. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394 ± 42 m Wm−2. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384 ± 60 m Wm−2 derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of smoke aerosols over clouds

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Wilcox
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Layer ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Marine Stratocumulus ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratocumulus Clouds ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Positive Direct

Abstract. Observations from Earth observing satellites indicate that dark carbonaceous aerosols that absorb solar radiation are widespread in the tropics and subtropics. When these aerosols mix with clouds, there is generally a reduction of cloudiness owing to absorption of solar energy in the aerosol layer. Over the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean, where smoke from savannah burning in southern Africa resides above a persistent deck of marine stratocumulus clouds, radiative heating of the smoke layer leads to a thickening of the cloud layer. Here, satellite observations of the albedo of overcast scenes of 25 km2 size or larger are combined with additional satellite observations of clouds and aerosols to estimate the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing attributable to presence of dark aerosol above bright cloud, and the negative semi-direct forcing attributable to the thickening of the cloud layer. The average positive direct radiative forcing by smoke over an overcast scene is 9.2±6.6 W m−2 for cases with an unambiguous signal of absorbing aerosol over cloud in passive ultraviolet remote sensing observations. However, cloud liquid water path is enhanced by 16.3±7.7 g m−2 across the range of values for sea surface temperature for cases of smoke over cloud. The negative radiative forcing associated with this semi-direct effect of smoke over clouds is estimated to be −5.9±3.5 W m−2. Therefore, the cooling associated with the semi-direct cloud thickening effect compensates for greater than 60 % of the direct radiative effect. Accounting for the frequency of occurrence of significant absorbing aerosol above overcast scenes leads to an estimate of the average direct forcing of 1.0±0.7 W m−2 contributed by these scenes averaged over the subtropical southeast Atlantic Ocean during austral winter. The regional average of the negative semi-direct forcing is −0.7±0.4 W m−2. Therefore, smoke aerosols overlaying the decks of overcast marine stratocumulus clouds considered here yield a small net positive radiative forcing, which results from the difference of two larger effects.

scholarly journals Robust observational constraint of uncertain aerosol processes and emissions in a climate model and the effect on aerosol radiative forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (15) ◽  
pp. 9491-9524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill S. Johnson ◽  
Leighton A. Regayre ◽  
Masaru Yoshioka ◽  
Kirsty J. Pringle ◽  
Steven T. Turnock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Observational Constraint ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽  
Standard Deviation Range ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract. The effect of observational constraint on the ranges of uncertain physical and chemical process parameters was explored in a global aerosol–climate model. The study uses 1 million variants of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) that sample 26 sources of uncertainty, together with over 9000 monthly aggregated grid-box measurements of aerosol optical depth, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, sulfate and organic mass concentrations. Despite many compensating effects in the model, the procedure constrains the probability distributions of parameters related to secondary organic aerosol, anthropogenic SO2 emissions, residential emissions, sea spray emissions, dry deposition rates of SO2 and aerosols, new particle formation, cloud droplet pH and the diameter of primary combustion particles. Observational constraint rules out nearly 98 % of the model variants. On constraint, the ±1σ (standard deviation) range of global annual mean direct radiative forcing (RFari) is reduced by 33 % to −0.14 to −0.26 W m−2, and the 95 % credible interval (CI) is reduced by 34 % to −0.1 to −0.32 W m−2. For the global annual mean aerosol–cloud radiative forcing, RFaci, the ±1σ range is reduced by 7 % to −1.66 to −2.48 W m−2, and the 95 % CI by 6 % to −1.28 to −2.88 W m−2. The tightness of the constraint is limited by parameter cancellation effects (model equifinality) as well as the large and poorly defined “representativeness error” associated with comparing point measurements with a global model. The constraint could also be narrowed if model structural errors that prevent simultaneous agreement with different measurement types in multiple locations and seasons could be improved. For example, constraints using either sulfate or PM2.5 measurements individually result in RFari±1σ ranges that only just overlap, which shows that emergent constraints based on one measurement type may be overconfident.

scholarly journals Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of smoke aerosols over clouds

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 20947-20972 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Wilcox
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Layer ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Marine Stratocumulus ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratocumulus Clouds ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Positive Direct

Abstract. Observations from Earth observing satellites indicate that dark carbonaceous aerosols that absorb solar radiation are widespread in the tropics and subtropics. When these aerosols mix with clouds, there is generally a reduction of cloudiness owing to absorption of solar energy in the aerosol layer. Over the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean, where smoke from savannah burning in southern Africa resides above a persistent deck of marine stratocumulus clouds, radiative heating of the smoke layer leads to a thickening of the cloud layer. Here, satellite observations of the albedo of overcast scenes of 25 km2 size or larger are combined with additional satellite observations of clouds and aerosols to estimate the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing attributable to presence of dark aerosol above bright cloud, and the negative semi-direct forcing attributable to the thickening of the cloud layer. The average positive direct radiative forcing by smoke over an overcast scene is 9.2±6.6 W m−2 for cases with an unambiguous signal of absorbing aerosol over cloud in passive ultraviolet remote sensing observations. However, cloud liquid water path is enhanced by 16.3±7.7 g m−2 across the range of values for sea surface temperature for cases of smoke over cloud. The negative radiative forcing associated with this semi-direct effect of smoke over clouds is estimated to be −5.9±3.5 W m−2. Therefore, the cooling associated with the semi-direct cloud thickening effect compensates for greater than 60 % of the direct radiative effect. Accounting for the frequency of occurrence of significant absorbing aerosol above overcast scenes leads to an estimate of the average direct forcing of 1.0±0.7 W m−2 contributed by these scenes averaged over the subtropical southeast Atlantic Ocean during austral winter. The regional average of the negative semi-direct forcing is −0.7±0.4 W m−2. Therefore, smoke aerosols overlaying the decks of overcast marine stratocumulus clouds considered here yield a small net positive radiative forcing, which results from the difference of two larger effects.

scholarly journals The role of carbonyl sulphide as a source of stratospheric sulphate aerosol and its impact on climate

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1239-1253 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Brühl ◽  
J. Lelieveld ◽  
P. J. Crutzen ◽  
H. Tost
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Direct Radiative Forcing ◽  
Upward Transport ◽  
Carbonyl Sulphide ◽  
Aerosol Module

Abstract. Globally, carbonyl sulphide (COS) is the most abundant sulphur gas in the atmosphere. Our chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere with aerosol module realistically simulates the background stratospheric sulphur cycle, as observed by satellites in volcanically quiescent periods. The model results indicate that upward transport of COS from the troposphere largely controls the sulphur budget and the aerosol loading of the background stratosphere. This differs from most previous studies which indicated that short-lived sulphur gases are also important. The model realistically simulates the modulation of the particulate and gaseous sulphur abundance in the stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In the lowermost stratosphere organic carbon aerosol contributes significantly to extinction. Further, using a chemical radiative convective model and recent spectra, we compute that the direct radiative forcing efficiency by 1 kg of COS is 724 times that of 1 kg CO2. Considering an anthropogenic fraction of 30% (derived from ice core data), this translates into an overall direct radiative forcing by COS of 0.003 W m−2. The direct global warming potentials of COS over time horizons of 20 and 100 yr are GWP(20 yr) = 97 and GWP(100 yr) = 27, respectively (by mass). Furthermore, stratospheric aerosol particles produced by the photolysis of COS (chemical feedback) contribute to a negative direct solar radiative forcing, which in the CCM amounts to −0.007 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere for the anthropogenic fraction, more than two times the direct warming forcing of COS. Considering that the lifetime of COS is twice that of stratospheric aerosols the warming and cooling tendencies approximately cancel.

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