scholarly journals Probabilistic predictions of climate change for Australia and southern Africa using the reliability ensemble average of IPCC CMIP3 model simulations

2008 ◽  
Vol 113 (D15) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Moise ◽  
D. A. Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Ensemble Average ◽  
Cmip3 Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Reliability Ensemble Average

ON REGIONAL MODEL SIMULATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER NEW ZEALAND

1999 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renwick ◽  
Katzfey ◽  
McGregor ◽  
Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Model Simulations

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on wind erosion in southern Africa during 1991–2015

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaonan Zhao ◽  
Hanbing Zhang ◽  
Man Wang ◽  
Hong Jiang ◽  
Jian Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Wind Erosion ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 556-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Fant ◽  
C. Adam Schlosser ◽  
Kenneth Strzepek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Nature-based tourism operators’ perceptions and adaptation to climate change in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (42) ◽  
pp. 115-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Mushawemhuka ◽  
Jayne M. Rogerson ◽  
Jarkko Saarinen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
National Park ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Economic Role ◽  
Change Perceptions ◽  
Hwange National Park ◽  
Adaptation Practices

Abstract Climate and weather are important resources for tourism. In particular, nature-based tourism activities and operations are largely dependent on and affected by environmental conditions and changes. Due to the significant socio-economic role of the nature-based tourism and the tourism industry, in general, in the region of southern Africa it is important to understand the dynamics between the industry and climate change. A key aspect of this understanding are perceptions and adaptation preparedness of tourism operators towards the estimated impact of climate change. There is a dearth of empirical studies on climate change perceptions and adaptation in nature-based tourism operations across southern Africa and specifically from Zimbabwe. This research gap is addressed in this article which provides an exploratory analysis of the nature of climate change adaptation practices occurring in southern Africa using evidence from Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

scholarly journals Feed biomass production may not be sufficient to support emerging livestock demand: Model projections to 2050 in Southern Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dolapo Enahoro ◽  
Jason Sircely ◽  
Randall B. Boone ◽  
Stephen Oloo ◽  
Adam M. Komarek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biomass Production ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Biomass Productivity ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Livestock Feed ◽  
By Products

The demand for livestock-derived foods has steadily grown over the past decades and rising incomes and human populations are expected to see demand further increase. It is unclear if current livestock feed resources are adequately prepared to meet future demand especially given the looming challenges of climate change. Many feeds such as grasses, crop by-products, and other biomass may not be widely grown commercially or sold in formal markets but are critical sources of livestock feed in many low-resource settings in which ruminant livestock production is important. The availability of these feed types can determine the extent to which the livestock sector can expand to meet growing, and sometimes critical, demand for animal-source foods. In this paper, we compare country-level projections of livestock demand from a global economic model to simulated data on feed biomass production. Our comparisons account separately for beef, lamb, and dairy demand. The data allow us to assess the future sufficiency of key sources of feed biomass, and hence aspects of the expansion capacity of livestock production in selected countries in Southern Africa. Our simulation results project that given the interacting effects of projected climate change and changes in income and population in the region, there will not be enough feed biomass produced domestically to meet growing demand for livestock products. For three types of feed biomass (feed crops including grains, grasses, and crop by-products) for which future livestock feed sufficiency was examined, our results showed feed sufficiency declines for all three feed types in Malawi and Mozambique, for two out of three in South Africa and for one of three in Zambia, under intermediate and extreme scenarios of climate change in 2050. Our results suggest an urgent need to improve feed biomass productivity to support future supply of animal protein in the study countries.

scholarly journals Precipitation over southern Africa: Is there consensus among GCMs, RCMs and observational data?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Chara Karypidou ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Direct Contrast ◽  
Improved Performance

Abstract. The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Ensuring that our modelling tools are fit for the purpose of assessing these changes is critical. In this work we compare a range of satellite products along with gauge-based datasets. Additionally, we investigate the behaviour of regional climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) – Africa domain, along with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6). We identify considerable variability in the standard deviation of precipitation between satellite products that merge with rain gauges and satellite products that do not, during the rainy season (Oct–Mar), indicating high observational uncertainty for specific regions over SAF. Good agreement both in spatial pattern and the strength of the calculated trends is found between satellite and gauge-based products, however. Both CORDEX-Africa and CMIP5 ensembles underestimate the observed trends during the analysis period. The CMIP6 ensemble displayed persistent drying trends, in direct contrast to the observations. The regional ensemble exhibited improved performance compared to its forcing (CMIP5), when the annual cycle and the extreme precipitation indices were examined, confirming the added value of the higher resolution regional climate simulations. The CMIP6 ensemble displayed a similar behaviour to CMIP5, however reducing slightly the ensemble spread. However, we show that reproduction of some key SAF phenomena, like the Angolan Low (which exerts a strong influence on regional precipitation), still poses a challenge for the global and regional models. This is likely a result of the complex climatic process that take place. Improvements in observational networks (both in-situ and satellite), as well as continued advancements in high-resolution modelling will be critical, in order to develop a robust assessment of climate change for southern Africa.

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