scholarly journals Climate response and radiative forcing from mineral aerosols during the last glacial maximum, pre-industrial, current and doubled-carbon dioxide climates

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie M. Mahowald ◽  
Masaru Yoshioka ◽  
William D. Collins ◽  
Andrew J. Conley ◽  
David W. Fillmore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Mineral Aerosols ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Simulated influence of carbon dioxide, orbital forcing and ice sheets on the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum

Nature ◽  
10.1038/29695 ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 394 (6696) ◽  
pp. 847-853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Weaver ◽  
Michael Eby ◽  
Augustus F. Fanning ◽  
Edward C. Wiebe
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Orbital Forcing ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

scholarly journals Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid Holocene

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 3481-3511 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Hargreaves ◽  
J. D. Annan ◽  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
A. Paul ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011) analysed the reliability of the PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011), and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land-sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed regional scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One likely cause of this problem may be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at regional scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representation error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

scholarly journals Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 811-823 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Hargreaves ◽  
J. D. Annan ◽  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
A. Paul ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011) analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP). Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011), and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

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