scholarly journals Dynamically dimensioned search algorithm for computationally efficient watershed model calibration

2007 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan A. Tolson ◽  
Christine A. Shoemaker
Author(s):  
Carl Ehrett ◽  
D. Andrew Brown ◽  
Christopher Kitchens ◽  
Xinyue Xu ◽  
Roland Platz ◽  
...  

Abstract Calibration of computer models and the use of those models for design are two activities traditionally carried out separately. This paper generalizes existing Bayesian inverse analysis approaches for computer model calibration to present a methodology combining calibration and design in a unified Bayesian framework. This provides a computationally efficient means to undertake both tasks while quantifying all relevant sources of uncertainty. Specifically, compared with the traditional approach of design using parameter estimates from previously completed model calibration, this generalized framework inherently includes uncertainty from the calibration process in the design procedure. We demonstrate our approach on the design of a vibration isolation system. We also demonstrate how, when adaptive sampling of the phenomenon of interest is possible, the proposed framework may select new sampling locations using both available real observations and the computer model. This is especially useful when a misspecified model fails to reflect that the calibration parameter is functionally dependent upon the design inputs to be optimized.


Author(s):  
Patrícia Porta Nova da Cruz ◽  
Timothy R. Green ◽  
Ricardo De Oliveira Figueiredo ◽  
Anderson Soares Pereira ◽  
Holm Kipka ◽  
...  

Southeastern Brazil has recently experienced drought conditions that have impacted watershed conservation and the management of water quality and quantity for agricultural and urban demands. The Ribeirão das Posses watershed is being monitored as a headwater of the Jaguarí River, which is one of the contributing rivers of the Cantareira Reservoir Complex in the state of São Paulo. The landscape has changed over the last century from native forests to more homogeneous vegetation for pastures, crops and some forest plantations of eucalyptus, which have cumulative impacts on water yield and quality. Currently, the Projeto Conservador das Águas (Water Conservationist Project) has planted small areas with native species vegetation in order to recover degraded areas. The objective of this study was to evaluate the quantity of water in the Ribeirão das Posses Basin by both measurements and by simulating hydrological responses. The Agricultural Ecosystem Services (AgES) watershed model was applied to simulate water movement and storage among land areas. The simulation period was from 2009 to 2014, because the daily streamflow and meteorological data were available for model calibration and testing. We discuss data input requirements, model calibration to fit measured streamflow, and sensitivity to spatially variable rainfall inputs. The calibrated model may be used to estimate streamflow during periods of missing data, and in the future to estimate impacts of land use changes on stream water quantity and quality. Such information can be used in programs of payments for ecosystem services.


2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Price ◽  
S. Thomas Purucker ◽  
Stephen R. Kraemer ◽  
Justin E. Babendreier

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