scholarly journals A statistical comparison of solar wind sources of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms at solar minimum and maximum

2006 ◽  
Vol 111 (A1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jichun Zhang ◽  
Michael W. Liemohn ◽  
Janet U. Kozyra ◽  
Michelle F. Thomsen ◽  
Heather A. Elliott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Statistical Comparison ◽  
Solar Wind Sources

A neural network-based mid-term prognosis of geomagnetic storms that uses pre-storm effects related to current sheets and magnetic islands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Fridman
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Magnetic Islands ◽  
Solar Wind Density ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Storm Effects ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Advance Time

<p>Mid-term prognoses of geomagnetic storms require an improvement since theу are known to have rather low accuracy which does not exceed 40% in solar minimum. We claim that the problem lies in the approach. Current mid-term forecasts are typically built using the same paradigm as short-term ones and suggest an analysis of the solar wind conditions typical for geomagnetic storms. According to this approach, there is a 20-60 minute delay between the arrival of a geoeffective flow/stream to L1 and the arrival of the signal from the spacecraft to Earth, which gives a necessary advance time for a short-term prognosis. For the mid-term forecast with an advance time from 3 hours to 3 days, this is not enough. Therefore, we have suggested finding precursors of geomagnetic storms observed in the solar wind. Such precursors are variations in the solar wind density and the interplanetary magnetic field in the ULF range associated with crossings of magnetic cavities in front of the arriving geoeffective high-speed streams and flows (Khabarova et al., 2015, 2016, 2018; Adhikari et al., 2019). Despite some preliminary studies have shown that this might be a perspective way to create a mid-term prognosis (Khabarova 2007; Khabarova & Yermolaev, 2007), the problem of automatization of the prognosis remained unsolved.</p>

scholarly journals Solar cycle effect on geomagnetic storms caused by interplanetary magnetic clouds

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 3383-3389 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-C. Wu ◽  
R. P. Lepping
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Geomagnetic Storm ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Solar Maximum ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Magnetic Clouds ◽  
Active Period ◽  
Quiet Period ◽  
Solar Wind Parameters

Abstract. We investigated geomagnetic activity which was induced by interplanetary magnetic clouds during the past four solar cycles, 1965–1998. We have found that the intensity of such geomagnetic storms is more severe in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In addition, we affirm that the average solar wind speed of magnetic clouds is faster in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In this study, we find that solar activity level plays a major role on the intensity of geomagnetic storms. In particular, some new statistical results are found and listed as follows. (1) The intensity of a geomagnetic storm in a solar active period is stronger than in a solar quiet period. (2) The magnitude of negative Bzmin is larger in a solar active period than in a quiet period. (3) Solar wind speed in an active period is faster than in a quiet period. (4) VBsmax in an active period is much larger than in a quiet period. (5) Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, Vmax and VBsmax are correlated well with geomagnetic storm intensity, Dstmin during a solar active period. (6) Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, and VBsmax are not correlated well (very poorly for Vmax) with geomagnetic storm intensity during a solar quiet period. (7) The speed of the solar wind plays a key role in the correlation of solar wind parameters vs. the intensity of a geomagnetic storm. (8) More severe storms with Dstmin≤−100 nT caused by MCs occurred in the solar active period than in the solar quiet period.

scholarly journals Fe/O ratio behavior as an indicator of solar plasma state at different solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence

2018 ◽  
pp. 33-58
Author(s):  
Геннадий Минасянц ◽  
Gennady Minasyants ◽  
Тамара Минасянц ◽  
Tamara Minasyants ◽  
Владимир Томозов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Cosmic Rays ◽  
Ionization Potential ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Ion Fluxes ◽  
Ion Energy ◽  
First Ionization Potential

We report the results of the investigation into plasma physical characteristics at various solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence. These results have been obtained from quantitative estimates of the relative abundance of Fe/O ions in different energy ranges. Maximum values of the Fe/O ratio is shown to correspond to particle fluxes from impulsive flares for ions with energies <2 MeV/n (the most significant manifestation of the FIP effect). In particle fluxes from gradual flares, the Fe/O value decreases smoothly with ion energy and is noticeably inferior to values of fluxes in impulsive events. We have established that the properties of flares of solar cosmic rays indicate their belonging to a separate subclass in the total population of gradual events. Relying on variations in the abundance of Fe/O ions, we propose an xplanation of the solar plasma behavior during the development of flares of both classes. Magnetic clouds (a separate type of coronal mass ejections (CME)), which have regions of turbulent compression and are sources of strong geomagnetic storms, exhibit a relative composition of Fe ions comparable to the abundance of Fe in ion fluxes from gradual flares. We have found out that the Fe/O value can be used to detect penetration of energetic flare plasma into the CME body at the initial phase of their joint development and to estimate its relative contribution. During solar minimum with complete absence of sunspots, the Fe/O ratio during periods of “quiet” solar wind show absolutely low values of Fe/O=0.004–0.010 in the energy range from 2–5 to 30 MeV/n. This is associated with the manifestation of the cosmic ray anomalous component, which causes an increase in the intensity of ion fluxes with a high first ionization potential, including oxygen (O), and elements with a low first ionization potential (Fe) demonstrate weakening of the fluxes. As for particles with higher energies (Ek>30 MeV/n), the Fe/O increase is due to the decisive influence of galactic cosmic rays on the composition of impurity elements in the solar wind under solar minimum conditions. The relative content of heavy elements in galactic cosmic rays 30–500 MeV/n is similar to values in fluxes from gradual flares during high solar activity. During solar minimum without sunspots, the behavior of Fe/O for different ion energy ranges in plasma flows from coronal holes (CH) and in the solar wind exhibits only minor deviations. At the same time, plasma flows associated with the disturbed frontal CH region can be sources of moderate geomagnetic storms.

scholarly journals Fe/O ratio behavior as an indicator of solar plasma state at different solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-50
Author(s):  
Геннадий Минасянц ◽  
Gennady Minasyants ◽  
Тамара Минасянц ◽  
Tamara Minasyants ◽  
Владимир Томозов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Cosmic Rays ◽  
Ionization Potential ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Ion Fluxes ◽  
Ion Energy ◽  
First Ionization Potential

We report the results of the investigation into plasma physical characteristics at various solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence. These results have been obtained from quantitative estimates of the relative abundance of Fe/O ions in different energy ranges. Maximum values of the Fe/O ratio is shown to correspond to particle fluxes from impulsive flares for ions with energies <2 MeV/n (the most significant manifestation of the FIP effect). In particle fluxes from gradual flares, the Fe/O value decreases smoothly with ion energy and is noticeably inferior to values of fluxes in impulsive events. We have established that the properties of flares of solar cosmic rays indicate their belonging to a separate subclass in the total population of gradual events. Relying on variations in the abundance of Fe/O ions, we propose an xplanation of the solar plasma behavior during the development of flares of both classes. Magnetic clouds (a separate type of coronal mass ejections (CME)), which have regions of turbulent compression and are sources of strong geomagnetic storms, exhibit a relative composition of Fe ions comparable to the abundance of Fe in ion fluxes from gradual flares. We have found out that the Fe/O value can be used to detect penetration of energetic flare plasma into the CME body at the initial phase of their joint development and to estimate its relative contribution. During solar minimum with complete absence of sunspots, the Fe/O ratio during periods of “quiet” solar wind show absolutely low values of Fe/O=0.004–0.010 in the energy range from 2–5 to 30 MeV/n. This is associated with the manifestation of the cosmic ray anomalous component, which causes an increase in the intensity of ion fluxes with a high first ionization potential, including oxygen (O), and elements with a low first ionization potential (Fe) demonstrate weakening of the fluxes. As for particles with higher energies (Ek>30 MeV/n), the Fe/O increase is due to the decisive influence of galactic cosmic rays on the composition of impurity elements in the solar wind under solar minimum conditions. The relative content of heavy elements in galactic cosmic rays 30–500 MeV/n is similar to values in fluxes from gradual flares during high solar activity. During solar minimum without sunspots, the behavior of Fe/O for different ion energy ranges in plasma flows from coronal holes (CH) and in the solar wind exhibits only minor deviations. At the same time, plasma flows associated with the disturbed frontal CH region can be sources of moderate geomagnetic storms.

H-Cmes and Ii-Type Radio Bursts Related Intense Geomagnetic Storms in Relation With Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Solar Wind Disturbances

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Praveen Kumar Gupta ◽  
◽  
Puspraj Singh Puspraj Singh ◽  
Puspraj Singh Puspraj Singh ◽  
P. K. Chamadia P. K. Chamadia
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Interplanetary Magnetic Field ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Radio Bursts ◽  
Solar Wind Disturbances

scholarly journals Study of Solar Wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field Features Associated with Geomagnetic Storms: The Cross Wavelet Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujan Prasad Gautam ◽  
Ashok Silwal ◽  
Prakash Poudel ◽  
Monika Karki ◽  
Binod Adhikari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Interplanetary Magnetic Field ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Cross Wavelet

scholarly journals Venus ion outflow estimates at solar minimum: Influence of reference frames and disturbed solar wind conditions

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (6) ◽  
pp. 3592-3601 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Nordström ◽  
G. Stenberg ◽  
H. Nilsson ◽  
S. Barabash ◽  
T. L. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Reference Frames ◽  
Ion Outflow

scholarly journals Data derived NARMAX Dst model

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 965-971 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Boynton ◽  
M. A. Balikhin ◽  
S. A. Billings ◽  
A. S. Sharma ◽  
O. A. Amariutei
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
System Identification ◽  
Nonlinear Systems ◽  
Wide Class ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Output Data ◽  
Dst Index ◽  
Geomagnetic Indices ◽  
Input And Output

Abstract. The NARMAX OLS-ERR methodology is applied to identify a mathematical model for the dynamics of the Dst index. The NARMAX OLS-ERR algorithm, which is widely used in the field of system identification, is able to identify a mathematical model for a wide class of nonlinear systems using input and output data. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions, derived from analytical or data based methods, are employed as the inputs to such models and the outputs are geomagnetic indices. The newly deduced coupling function, p1/2V4/3BTsin6(θ/2), has been implemented as an input to model the Dst dynamics. It was shown that the identified model has a very good forecasting ability, especially with the geomagnetic storms.

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