Warm-season rainfall variability over the U.S. Great Plains and its correlation with evapotranspiration in a climate simulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanru Wu ◽  
Robert E. Dickinson
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
The U.S

Dryness over the U.S. Southwest, a Springboard for Cold Season Pacific SST to Influence Warm Season Drought over the U.S. Great Plains

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-76
Author(s):  
Yizhou Zhuang ◽  
Amir Erfanian ◽  
Rong Fu
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Moisture Condition ◽  
Moisture Advection ◽  
The U.S

AbstractAlthough the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing and large-scale teleconnection on summer droughts over the U.S. Great Plains has been suggested for decades, the underlying mechanisms are still not fully understood. Here we show a significant correlation between low-level moisture condition over the U.S. Southwest in spring and rainfall variability over the Great Plains in summer. Such a connection is due to the strong influence of the Southwest dryness on the zonal moisture advection to the Great Plains from spring to summer. This advection is an important contributor for the moisture deficit during spring to early summer, and so can initiate warm season drought over the Great Plains. In other words, the well-documented influence of cold season Pacific SST on the Southwest rainfall in spring, and the influence of the latter on the zonal moisture advection to the Great Plains from spring to summer, allows the Pacific climate variability in winter and spring to explain over 35% of the variance of the summer precipitation over the Great Plains, more than that can be explained by the previous documented west Pacific–North America (WPNA) teleconnection forced by tropical Pacific SST in early summer. Thus, this remote land surface feedback due to the Southwest dryness can potentially improve the predictability of summer precipitation and drought onsets over the Great Plains.

scholarly journals On the Link between Summer Dry Bias over the U.S. Great Plains and Seasonal Temperature Prediction Skill in a Dynamical Forecast System

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 1161-1172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantin Ardilouze ◽  
Lauriane Batté ◽  
Bertrand Decharme ◽  
Michel Déqué
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract Soil moisture anomalies are expected to be a driver of summer predictability for the U.S. Great Plains since this region is prone to intense and year-to-year varying water and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. However, dynamical seasonal forecast systems struggle to deliver skillful summer temperature forecasts over that region, otherwise subject to a consistent warm-season dry bias in many climate models. This study proposes two techniques to mitigate the impact of this precipitation deficit on the modeled soil water content in a forecast system based on the CNRM-CM6-1 model. Both techniques lead to increased evapotranspiration during summer and reduced temperature and precipitation bias. However, only the technique based on a correction of the precipitation feeding the land surface throughout the forecast integration enables skillful summer prediction. Although this result cannot be generalized for other parts of the globe, it confirms the link between bias and skill over the U.S. Great Plains and pleads for continued efforts of the modeling community to tackle the summer bias affecting that region.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Morning Convective Systems over the U.S. Great Plains during the Warm Season. Part I: The Forecast Problem

2003 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1286-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl E. Hane ◽  
Jill D. Watts ◽  
David L. Andra ◽  
John A. Haynes ◽  
Edward Berry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Forecast Problem ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Warm Season Rainfall Variability over the U.S. Great Plains in Observations, NCEP and ERA-40 Reanalyses, and NCAR and NASA Atmospheric Model Simulations

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 1808-1830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Ncep Reanalysis ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Abstract Interannual variability of Great Plains precipitation in the warm season months is analyzed using gridded observations, satellite-based precipitation estimates, NCEP reanalysis data and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data, and the half-century-long NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.0, version 3.0) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Seasonal-to-Intraseasonal Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric model simulations. Regional hydroclimate is the focus because of its immense societal impact and because the involved variability mechanisms are not well understood. The Great Plains precipitation variability is represented rather differently, and only quasi realistically, in the reanalyses. NCEP has larger amplitude but less traction with observations in comparison with ERA-40. Model simulations exhibit more realistic amplitudes, which are between those of NCEP and ERA-40. The simulated variability is however uncorrelated with observations in both models, with monthly correlations smaller than 0.10 in all cases. An assessment of the regional atmosphere water balance is revealing: Stationary moisture flux convergence accounts for most of the Great Plains variability in ERA-40, but not in the NCEP reanalysis and model simulations; convergent fluxes generate less than half of the precipitation in the latter, while local evaporation does the rest in models. Phenomenal evaporation in the models—up to 4 times larger than the highest observationally constrained estimate (NCEP’s)—provides the bulk of the moisture for Great Plains precipitation variability; thus, precipitation recycling is very efficient in both models, perhaps too efficient. Remote water sources contribute substantially to Great Plains hydroclimate variability in nature via fluxes. Getting the interaction pathways right is presently challenging for the models.

Rainfall Occurrence in the U.S. Warm Season: The Diurnal Cycle*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (16) ◽  
pp. 4132-4146 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. E. Carbone ◽  
J. D. Tuttle
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Continental Divide ◽  
Central United States ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The diurnal occurrence of warm-season rainfall over the U.S. mainland is examined, particularly in light of forcings at multiple scales. The analysis is based on a radar dataset of 12-seasons duration covering the U.S. mainland from the Continental Divide eastward. The dataset resolves 2-km features at 15-min intervals, thus providing a detailed view of both large- and regional-scale diurnal patterns, as well as the statistics of events underlying these patterns. The results confirm recent findings with respect to the role of propagating rainfall systems and the high frequency at which these are excited by sensible heating over elevated terrain. Between the Rockies and the Appalachians, ∼60% of midsummer rainfall occurs in this manner. Most rainfall in the central United States is nocturnal and may be attributed to the following three main forcings: 1) the passage of eastward-propagating rainfall systems with origins near the Continental Divide at 105°W; 2) a nocturnal reversal of the mountain–plains solenoid, which is associated with widespread ascent over the plains; and 3) the transport of energetic air and moisture convergence by the Great Plains low-level jet. Other features of interest include effects of the Appalachians, semidiurnal signals of regional significance, and the impact of breezes along the Gulf of Mexico. A modest effort was put forth to discern signals associated with El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. While tendencies in precipitation patterns are observed, the record is too short to draw conclusions of general significance.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity in Warm-Season Land-Atmosphere Coupling Over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (15) ◽  
pp. 7867-7882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Tang ◽  
Shaocheng Xie ◽  
Yunyan Zhang ◽  
Thomas J. Phillips ◽  
Joseph A. Santanello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
The U.S

Seasonal and interannual variability in13C composition of ecosystem carbon fluxes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Tellus B ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret S. Torn ◽  
Sebastien C. Biraud ◽  
Christopher J. Still ◽  
William J. Riley ◽  
Joe A. Berry
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Seasonal And Interannual Variability ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Vulnerability of crops and native grasses to summer drying in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

2015 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 209-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naama Raz-Yaseef ◽  
Dave P. Billesbach ◽  
Marc L. Fischer ◽  
Sebastien C. Biraud ◽  
Stacey A. Gunter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Native Grasses ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals The Role of Mesoscale Convective Complexes in Southern Africa Summer Rainfall

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1654-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Blamey ◽  
C. J. C. Reason
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract A combination of numerous factors, including geographic position, regional orography, and local sea surface temperatures, means that subtropical southern Africa experiences considerable spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and is prone to both frequent flooding and drought events. One system that may contribute to rainfall variability in the region is the mesoscale convective complex (MCC). In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data is used to document the precipitation produced by MCCs over southern Africa for the 1998–2006 period. Most of the rainfall associated with MCCs is found to occur over central Mozambique, extending southward to eastern South Africa. High precipitation totals associated with these systems also occur over the neighboring southwest Indian Ocean, particularly off the northeast coast of South Africa. MCCs are found to contribute up to 20% of the total summer rainfall (November–March) in parts of the eastern region of southern Africa. If the month of March is excluded from the analysis, then the contribution increases up to 24%. In general, the MCC summer rainfall contribution for most of the eastern region is approximately between 8% and 16%. Over the western interior and Botswana and Namibia, the MCC contribution is much less (<6%). It is also evident that there is considerable interannual variability associated with the contribution that these systems make to the total warm season rainfall.

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