scholarly journals The effect of Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole mode on hurricanes: Implications for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian Xie
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Hurricane Season

scholarly journals Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous dan Aplikasinya pada Curah Hujan Kota Makassar

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
S. Sukarna ◽  
Wahidah Sanusi ◽  
Serly Diliyanti Restu Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Dipole Mode Index ◽  
Mode Index

Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian terapan yang bertujuan untuk meramalkan curah hujan di Kota Makassar dengan menggunakan model VARX. Model VARX dikembangkan dari model VAR dengan menambahkan faktor eksogen yang mempengaruhi curah hujan seperti Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Nino 3.4, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), dan Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Data curah hujan yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan bulanan di Kota Makassar dari tahun 1987-2016 di tiga stasiun yaitu Panaikang, Paotere, dan Biring Romang sebagai faktor endogen. Data ini diperoleh dari Balai Besar Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BBMKG) Wilayah IV Makassar. Pembentukan model VARX melalui beberapa tahap yaitu: uji stasioneritas, penentuan panjang lag optimal, uji kausalitas, diagnostik model, pembentukan model VARX dan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata puncak curah hujan di Kota Makassar terjadi di bulan Maret kemudian turun secara eksponensial. Pada bulan Mei peluang terjadinya hujan sangat sedikit. Model yang didapat pada penelitian ini layak digunakan untuk meramalkan curah hujan pada periode berikutnya.Kata Kunci: Model VARX, model VAR, curah hujan, peramalan.This type of research is applied research that aims to predict rainfall in Makassar city VARX model using. The model was developed from the VARX model VAR by adding exogenous factors that influence the precipitation like Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Nino 3.4, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Rainfall data used in this researrchis the monthly rainfall data in Makassar city from 1987-2016 year on three stations, namely Panaikang, Paotere, and Biring Romang as endogenous factors. This data is retrieved from the Great Hall the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Region IV Makassar. VARX model formation through several stages, namely : test stasioneritas, the determination of the optimal lag length, test causality, diagnostic models, the establishment of the model of forecasting and VARX. The result showed that the average peak rainfall in Makassar city occurred in March and then come down exponentially. In May the chance of occurrence of very little rain.The model obtained in this study deserves to be used to predict rainfall in the next period.Keywords: Model VARX, model VAR, rainfall, forecasting

scholarly journals KAJIAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) DAN DIPOLE MODE PADA KEGIATAN PENERAPAN TEKNOLOGI MODIFIKASI CUACA DI PROPINSI RIAU DAN SUMATERA BARAT JULI – AGUSTUS 2009

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Djazim Syaifullah
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Cloud Seeding ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Global Condition

Kajian suhu muka laut, SOI dan Dipole Mode Index (DMI) telah dilakukan untuk melihatpengaruh global terhadap kondisi pertumbuhan awan di daerah DAS Kotapanjang danSingkarak pada pelaksanaan Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca (TMC) Juli – Agustus 2009.Data yang dipakai dalam penelitian ini adalah data Sea Surface Temperature (SST)yang diambil dari University Corporation for Athmospheric Research (UCAR). suhumuka laut yang dianalisis adalah daerah Nino dan daerah Sumatera bagian barat. Darihasil analisis terlihat bahwa selama kegiatan TMC nilai anomali SST untuk keempatdaerah Nino (Nino12, Nino3, Nino34 dan Nino4) adalah positif, hal ini menunjukkanbahwa selama kegiatan TMC kondisi global sudah memasuki fase ElNino meskipunbelum begitu kuat. Sedangkan di wilayah Sumatera bagian barat secara umum sejakawal bulan April 2009 nilai suhu muka laut berada di atas rerata dari normalnya (anomali positif). Dilihat dari nilai SOI secara umum berada pada kisaran normal. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa selama kegiatan TMC kondisi atmosfer kedua DAS cukup kering dan sangat sulit untuk mendapatkan awan-awan yang potensial untuk disemai. Study of sea surface temperature, SOI and dipole mode indices (DMI), was held to seeglobal influence conditions of cloud growth in Kotapanjang and Singkarak catchment on the cloud seeding project from July to August 2009. The data used in this study was sea surface temperature (SST), taken from University Corporation Athmospheric research(UCAR). The sea surface temperature was analysed in Nino12 regions and Westernregion of Sumatra. Based on the analysis shows that during cloud seeding period thesea surface temperature anomaly for the four regions of Niño (Niño2 Niño3, Niño34and Niño4) is positive, while in the western of Sumatra in general since the beginning ofApril 2009 the sea temperature was higher than normal. This indicates that during cloudseeding period global condition has entered a stage of Elnino, although not so strong.The soi is generally in the range of normal. The analysis showed that during the cloudseeding period either watershed atmospheric conditions dry enough and very difficult toget a potential cloud for sowing.

scholarly journals ANALYZING THE EFFECT OF INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE PHENOMENON TO THE ANOMALIES DISTRIBUTION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN WEST SUMATERA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 260-270
Author(s):  
Nabila Afifah Azuga ◽  
Musrifin Galib ◽  
Elizal
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
The West ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Data Processing Methods

The waters of West Sumatera that face directly into Indian Ocean is strongly influenced by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon which caused an anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) and affect rainfall intensity in the West Sumatera Province. This research was aimed to know the effect of IOD on the distribution and anomaly of SST and rainfall intensity in West Sumatera. Data processing methods in this research is using statistical and descriptive. The data used in this research are NOAA OI-SST, Dipole Mode Index (DMI), and rainfall data from BKMG. The results showed that IOD positive occured in October 2018 and the IOD negative occured in July 2016. During the positive IOD, SST distribution values were 28 ˚C – 28,8 ˚C and SST anomaly values were ​​-1,2 to -0,4, in the negative phase the distribution of SST values were 29,8 ˚C – 30,35 ˚C and the SST anomaly values were 0,15 to 0,7. The rainfall intensity during positive IOD phase is 157 mm/month and during negative IOD phase is 525 mm/month.

scholarly journals The Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on Production of Tembang Fishing (Sardinella fimbriata) at Sunda Strait Indonesia

2020 ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
Delima Mentari Amara ◽  
Yuniar Mulyani ◽  
Alexander M. A. Khan ◽  
Herman Hamdani
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Pelagic Fish ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Dipole Mode Index ◽  
Mode Index ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Tembang is a pelagic fish which is important in Indonesia and the development on the Sunda Strait. The Indian Ocean Dipole could affect oceanography and at the same time will affect the population of fishes. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of IOD and oceanographic factors on the catch of Tembang fish. This research was conducted in the Sunda Strait waters by looking at the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and oceanographic ocean conditions such as sea surface temperature and chlorophyll as well as the production of fish catches for 11 years from 2008-2018. IOD affects the catch of Tembang fish by 35.8%. Temperature influences the catch of Tembang fish in the Sunda Strait by 9.48%. Klorofil-a influences the catch of Tembang fish in Sunda Strait by 38.6%. DMI, Temperature, and Chlorophyll affect fish catches by 26.9%.

scholarly journals Local climate impacts of dipole-like sea surface temperature oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeseung Oh ◽  
Yong Jung
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis

Abstract Dipole phenomena in ocean-atmospheric variability such as the Indian Ocean Dipole have been recognized as important factors that greatly affect local climates. This study presents evidence of two dipole modes in sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over high latitude Southern Hemisphere (one in South Pacific and one in South Indian Ocean), identified using empirical orthogonal functions and cross-correlation analysis. These dipole modes have interannual periodicity, which is also explored for their seasonal variability and modes. Herein, a dipole mode is defined as a quasi-periodic oscillation between positive and negative phases in the various climate proxies, though predominantly in SST, which is supported by the signal's synchronized relationship with atmospheric variability (as recorded by pressure and wind records). In addition, the dipole modes have a clear synchronization relationship to local precipitation records, which is described in this paper. For this purpose, an index to represent the time-dependent evolution of each dipole mode and to better define and understand the teleconnections of the dipole modes with other climate variables was defined. The findings described here provide a more precise and unique understanding of the globally distributed SSTA teleconnections and climate's synchronized dynamics than that has currently been studied.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Anomali Iklim (Enso Dan Iod) Terhadap Sebaran Ikan Pedang (Xiphias Gladius) Di Samudera Hindia Bagian Timur

Jurnal Segara ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bram Setyadji ◽  
Khairul Amri
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Unit Effort ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Resolution Imaging ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
By Catch

Anomali iklim seperti ENSO dan Dipole Mode mempengaruhi dinamika massa air di bagian timur Samudera Hindia serta berdampak terhadap pola sebaran dan hasil tangkapan ikan. Ikan pedang yang tertangkap di bagian timur Samudera Hindia merupakan hasil tangkap sampingan (by catch) rawai tuna. Meskipun mempunyai nilai ekonomis yang tinggi, penelitian mengenai keterkaitan faktor lingkungan dengan hasil tangkapan dan sebaran ikan pedang, masih belum banyak dilakukan. Tulisan ini membahas pengaruh anomali iklim (ENSO dan Dipole Mode) terhadap sebaran hasil tangkapan dan sebaran spasial-temporal ikan pedang di bagian timur Samudera Hindia. Data paremeter lingkungan yang digunakan berupa sebaran suhu permukaan laut (SPL) atau Sea Surface Temperature(SST) dan klorfil-a permukaan (SSC=Sea Surface Chlorophyll) hasil pengukuran sensor Satelit Aqua MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) L-2 dengan format bulanan. Data ikan pedang merupakan data kombinasi hasil pendaratan di Pelabuhan Benoa 2002–2014 dan data pemantauan ilmiah Loka Penelitian Perikanan Tuna  2005–2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada anomali iklim yang mempengaruhi hasil tangkapan per upaya (Catch per Unit Effort/CPUE) dan diduga juga mempengaruhi recruitment ikan pedang. Nilai CPUE tahunan tertinggi (0,16 ikan/100 pancing) terjadi pada event El-Nino moderate (2009) dimana terjadi peningkatan produktivitas primer, sebaliknya CPUE tahunan terendah (0,08 ikan/100 pancing) pada event IOD negatif moderate (2005) yang dampaknya sama dengan La-Nina, yakni penurunan produktivitas primer. Indikasi ini diperkuat dengan hasil pengamatan bulanan dimana nilai CPUE tertinggi pada Juni (periode berlangsungnya upwelling di selatan Jawa), sebaliknya pada bulan Desember CPUE rendah (ketika kesuburan perairan menurun). Dominansi hasil tangkapan ikan muda periode 2007-2011, diduga merupakan generasi baru recruitment dari keberhasilan pemijahan sebelumnya, saat terjadi event consecutive IOD positif (tiga tahun berturut-turut: 2006-2007-2008) meningkatkan produktivitas primer secara signifikan akibat intensitas upwelling yang tinggi.

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