Seasonal circulation on the western shelf of the Gulf of Mexico using a high-resolution numerical model

Abstract. Determining when and how a Loop Current eddy (LCE) in the Gulf of Mexico will finally separate is a difficult task, since several detachment re-attachment processes can occur during one of these events. Separation is usually defined based on snapshots of Eulerian fields such as sea surface height (SSH) but here we suggest that a Lagrangian view of the LCE separation process is more appropriate and objective. The basic idea is very simple: separation should be defined whenever water particles from the cyclonic side of the Loop Current move swiftly from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Straits instead of penetrating into the NE Gulf of Mexico. The properties of backward-time finite time Lyapunov exponents (FTLE) computed from a numerical model of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are used to estimate the "skeleton" of flow and the structures involved in LCE detachment events. An Eulerian metric is defined, based on the slope of the strain direction of the instantaneous hyperbolic point of the Loop Current anticyclone that provides useful information to forecast final LCE detachments. We highlight cases in which an LCE separation metric based on SSH contours (Leben, 2005) suggests there is a separated LCE that later reattaches, whereas the slope method and FTLE structure indicate the eddy remains dynamically connected to the Loop Current during the process.

Download Full-text

Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

10.5194/nhess-2017-291 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Paul W. Miller ◽

Thomas L. Mote

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

High Resolution ◽

Numerical Model ◽

Model Error ◽

Severe Weather ◽

Forecasting Model ◽

Weather Event ◽

Southeast United States ◽

Accurate Representation ◽

Severe Weather Event

Abstract. Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), short-lived convection forming in synoptically quiescent regimes, are a contemporary forecasting challenge. The convective environments that support severe WFTs are often similar to those that yield only nonsevere WFTs, and additionally, only a small proportion individual WFTs will ultimately produce severe weather. The purpose of this study is to better characterize the relative severe weather potential in these settings as a function of the convective environment. Thirty near-storm convective parameters for > 200 000 WFTs in the Southeast United States are calculated from a high-resolution numerical forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP). For each parameter, the relative likelihood of WFT days with at least one severe weather event is assessed along a moving threshold. Parameters (and the values of them) that reliably separate severe-weather-supporting from nonsevere WFT days are highlighted. Only two convective parameters, vertical totals (VT) and total totals (TT), appreciably differentiate severe-wind-supporting and severe-hail-supporting days from nonsevere WFT days. When VTs exceeded values between 24.6–25.1 °C or TTs between 46.5–47.3 °C, severe-wind days were roughly 5 × more likely. Meanwhile, severe-hail days became roughly 10 × more likely when VTs exceeded 24.4–26.0 °C or TTs exceeded 46.3–49.2 °C. The stronger performance of VT and TT is partly attributed to the more accurate representation of these parameters in the numerical model. Under-reporting of severe weather and model error are posited to exacerbate the forecasting challenge by obscuring the subtle convective environmental differences enhancing storm severity.

Download Full-text