Analysis of the duration, seasonal timing, and location of North Atlantic tropical cyclones: 1950-2002

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. Balling ◽  
Randall S. Cerveny
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Seasonal Timing

scholarly journals Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (12) ◽  
pp. 4646-4657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Kozar ◽  
Vasubandhu Misra
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Normal Regression ◽  
Spike Model ◽  
Training Interval ◽  
Training Exercises

Abstract Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a useful quantity that measures the size and strength of a tropical cyclone wind field. As a result, it is inherently related to the destructive potential of these powerful storms. In most current operational settings, there are limited resources designed to assess the IKE of a tropical cyclone because storm track and maximum intensity are typically prioritized. Therefore, to complement existing forecasting tools, a statistical scheme is created to project fluctuations of IKE in North Atlantic tropical cyclones for several forecast intervals out to 72 h. The resulting scheme, named Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy (SPIKE), utilizes multivariate normal regression models trained on environmental and storm-related predictors from all North Atlantic tropical cyclones occurring from 1990 to 2011. During this training interval, SPIKE outperforms persistence and is capable of explaining more than 80% of observed variance in total IKE values at a forecast interval of 12 h, trailing down to just below 60% explained variance at an interval of 72 h. The skill of the SPIKE model is evaluated further using bootstrapping exercises in order to gauge the predictive abilities of the statistical scheme. In addition, the performance of the SPIKE model is also evaluated for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, which notably falls outside of the training interval. Ultimately, the validation exercises return shared variance scores similar to those found in the training exercises, serving as a proof of concept that the SPIKE model can be used to project IKE values when given accurate predictor data.

scholarly journals A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8674-8685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chenoweth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
News Reports ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
First Time

Abstract A comprehensive new compilation of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the years 1851–98 is presented and compared with the second-generation North Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) for the same years. This new analysis is based on the retrieval of 9072 newspaper marine shipping news reports, 1260 original logbook records, 271 Maury abstract logs, 147 U.S. marine meteorological journals, and 34 Met Office (UKMO) logbooks. Records from throughout North America and the Caribbean region were used along with other primary and secondary references holding unique land and marine data. For the first time, North Atlantic daily weather maps for 1864/65, 1873, and 1881–98 were used in historical tropical cyclone research. Results for the years 1851–98 include the omission of 62 of the 361 HURDAT2 storms, and the further reduction resulting from the merging of storms to a total of 288 unique HURDAT2 tropical cyclones. The new compilation gave a total of 497 tropical cyclones in the 48-yr record, or an average of 10.4 storms per year compared to 6.0 per year in HURDAT2 less the author’s omissions. Of this total, 209 storms are completely new. A total of 90 hurricanes made landfall in the United States during this time. Seven new U.S. landfalling hurricanes are present in the new dataset but not in HURDAT2. Eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in HURDAT2 are now considered to have only tropical storm impact or were actually extratropical at landfall. Across the North Atlantic, the number of category-4 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, compared with HURDAT2, increased from 11 to 25, 6 of which made U.S. landfall at category-4 level.

Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 3063-3075 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woosuk Choi ◽  
Chang-Hoi Ho ◽  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Jinwon Kim ◽  
Song Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

A Eulerian Explosive Cyclogenesis climatology from the ERA5 reanalysis, 1979-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Cropper ◽  
Stephanie Allen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Avalon Peninsula ◽  
Resolution Data ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

<p>Using the criterion of one Bergeron (24 hPa change over 24 h at 60°), we present the creation of a Eulerian explosive cyclogenesis climatology using hourly-temporal resolution data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting’s ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2018). This approach differs to the typically used Lagrangian methodologies adopted by many studies. The climatology created by this approach results in similar patterns to previous studies.</p><p>Assessments on the dataset are undertaken to analyse the influence of seasonality, teleconnections, climate change and individual events (the method picks up tropical cyclones as well as mid-latitude storms). The location experiencing the most consistent explosive cyclongenesis conditions (15% of the time during the Northern Hemisphere winter) is to the east of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. The preferred location of explosive cyclogenesis is shown to change in relation to patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Potential applications of the dataset are suggested.</p><p>                                                </p>

Modulation of North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones by tropical trans-basin variability and ENSO during May-October

2020 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Shaohua Chen ◽  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Graciela B. Raga ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Scale Factors ◽  
Frequency Changes ◽  
Dipole Modulation

AbstractThis study highlights the distinct modulation of May-October tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP) and North Atlantic (NATL) basins by tropical trans-basin variability (TBV) and ENSO. The pure TBV significantly modulates total TC counts in all three basins, with more TCs in the WNP and ENP and fewer TCs in the NATL during warm TBV years and fewer TCs in the WNP and ENP and more TCs in the NATL during cold TBV years. By contrast, the pure ENSO signal shows no impact on total TC count over any of the three basins. These results are consistent with changes in large scale factors associated with TBV and ENSO. Low-level relative vorticity (VOR) is an important driver of WNP TC genesis frequency, with broad agreement between the observed spatial distribution of TC genesis and TBV/ENSO-associated VOR anomalies. TBV significantly affects ENP TC frequency due to changes in basin wide vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures, while the modulation in TC frequency by ENSO is primarily caused by a north-south dipole modulation of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic factors. The pure TBV-related low-level VOR changes appear to be the most important factor modulating NATL TC frequency. Changes in large-scale factors compare well with the budget of synoptic-scale eddy kinetic energy. Possible physical processes associated with pure TBV and pure ENSO that modulate TC frequency are further discussed. This study contributes to the understanding of TC inter-annual variability and could thus be helpful for seasonal TC forecasting.

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