Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America

2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 1515-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ze‧ev Gedalof ◽  
Dan J. Smith
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Interdecadal Climate Variability

Dynamics of Interdecadal Climate Variability: A Historical Perspective*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 1963-1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengyu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Interdecadal Climate Variability

Abstract The emerging interest in decadal climate prediction highlights the importance of understanding the mechanisms of decadal to interdecadal climate variability. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of our understanding of interdecadal climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. In particular, the dynamics of interdecadal variability in both oceans will be discussed in a unified framework and in light of historical development. General mechanisms responsible for interdecadal variability, including the role of ocean dynamics, are reviewed first. A hierarchy of increasingly complex paradigms is used to explain variability. This hierarchy ranges from a simple red noise model to a complex stochastically driven coupled ocean–atmosphere mode. The review suggests that stochastic forcing is the major driving mechanism for almost all interdecadal variability, while ocean–atmosphere feedback plays a relatively minor role. Interdecadal variability can be generated independently in the tropics or extratropics, and in the Pacific or Atlantic. In the Pacific, decadal–interdecadal variability is associated with changes in the wind-driven upper-ocean circulation. In the North Atlantic, some of the multidecadal variability is associated with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In both the Pacific and Atlantic, the time scale of interdecadal variability seems to be determined mainly by Rossby wave propagation in the extratropics; in the Atlantic, the time scale could also be determined by the advection of the returning branch of AMOC in the Atlantic. One significant advancement of the last two decades is the recognition of the stochastic forcing as the dominant generation mechanism for almost all interdecadal variability. Finally, outstanding issues regarding the cause of interdecadal climate variability are discussed. The mechanism that determines the time scale of each interdecadal mode remains one of the key issues not understood. It is suggested that much further understanding can be gained in the future by performing specifically designed sensitivity experiments in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models, by further analysis of observations and cross-model comparisons, and by combining mechanistic studies with decadal prediction studies.

A 200-Year Perspective of Climate Variability and the Response of White Spruce in Interior Alaska

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn Patrick Juday ◽  
Valerie Barber
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
Boreal Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Interior Alaska ◽  
Summer Temperatures

The two most important life functions that organisms carry out to persist in the environment are reproduction and growth. In this chapter we examine the role of climate and climate variability as controlling factors in the growth of one of the most important and productive of the North American boreal forest tree species, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss). Because the relationship between climate and tree growth is so close, tree-ring properties have been used successfully for many years as a proxy to reconstruct past climates. Our recent reconstruction of nineteenth- century summer temperatures at Fairbanks based on white spruce tree-ring characteristics (Barber et al. in press) reveals a fundamental pattern of quasi-decadal climate variability. The values in this reconstruction of nineteenth-century Fairbanks summer temperatures are surprisingly warm compared to values in much of the published paleoclimatic literature for boreal North America. In this chapter we compare our temperature reconstructions with ring-width records in northern and south-central Alaska to see whether tree-growth signals in the nineteenth century in those regions are consistent with tree-ring characteristics in and near Bonanza Creek (BNZ) LTER (25 km southwest of Fairbanks) that suggest warm temperatures during the mid-nineteenth century. We also present a conceptual model of key limiting events in white spruce reproduction and compare it to a 39-year record of seed fall at BNZ. Finally, we derive a radial growth pattern index from white spruce at nine stands across Interior Alaska that matches recent major seed crop events in the BNZ monitoring period, and we identify dates after 1800 when major seed crops of white spruce, which are infrequent, may have been produced. The boreal region is characterized by a broad zone of forest with a continuous distribution across Eurasia and North America, amounting to about 17% of the earth’s land surface area (Bonan et al. 1992). The boreal region is often conceived of as a zone of relatively homogenous climate, but in fact a surprising diversity of climates are present. During the long days of summer, continental interior locations under persistent high-pressure systems experience hot weather that can promote extensive forest fires frequently exceeding 100 kilohectares (K ha). Summer daily maximum temperatures are cooled to a considerable degree in maritime portions of the boreal region affected by air masses that originate over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, or Arctic Oceans.

scholarly journals Multifactor controls on terrestrial N<sub>2</sub>O flux over North America from 1979 through 2010

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1351-1366 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. F. Xu ◽  
H. Q. Tian ◽  
G. S. Chen ◽  
M. L. Liu ◽  
W. Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Fertilizer Application ◽  
N2o Emission ◽  
N Deposition ◽  
N Fertilizer ◽  
Multiple Factors ◽  
Change Factors ◽  
Factor Interaction

Abstract. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas which also contributes to the depletion of stratospheric ozone (O3). However, the magnitude and underlying mechanisms for the spatiotemporal variations in the terrestrial sources of N2O are still far from certain. Using a process-based ecosystem model (DLEM – the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model) driven by multiple global change factors, including climate variability, nitrogen (N) deposition, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), tropospheric O3 pollution, N fertilizer application, and land conversion, this study examined the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial N2O flux over North America and further attributed these variations to various driving factors. From 1979 to 2010, the North America cumulatively emitted 53.9 ± 0.9 Tg N2O-N (1 Tg = 1012 g), of which global change factors contributed 2.4 ± 0.9 Tg N2O-N, and baseline emission contributed 51.5 ± 0.6 Tg N2O-N. Climate variability, N deposition, O3 pollution, N fertilizer application, and land conversion increased N2O emission while the elevated atmospheric CO2 posed opposite effect at continental level; the interactive effect among multiple factors enhanced N2O emission over the past 32 yr. N input, including N fertilizer application in cropland and N deposition, and multi-factor interaction dominated the increases in N2O emission at continental level. At country level, N fertilizer application and multi-factor interaction made large contribution to N2O emission increase in the United States of America (USA). The climate variability dominated the increase in N2O emission from Canada. N inputs and multiple factors interaction made large contribution to the increases in N2O emission from Mexico. Central and southeastern parts of the North America – including central Canada, central USA, southeastern USA, and all of Mexico – experienced increases in N2O emission from 1979 to 2010. The fact that climate variability and multi-factor interaction largely controlled the inter-annual variations in terrestrial N2O emission at both continental and country levels indicate that projected changes in the global climate system may substantially alter the regime of N2O emission from terrestrial ecosystems during the 21st century. Our study also showed that the interactive effect among global change factors may significantly affect N2O flux, and more field experiments involving multiple factors are urgently needed.

scholarly journals The Influence of Large-Scale Climate Variability on Winter Maximum Daily Precipitation over North America

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 2902-2915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Jiafeng Wang ◽  
Francis W. Zwiers ◽  
Pavel Ya Groisman
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
The North

Abstract The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to winter season daily maximum precipitation over North America, with indices representing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as predictors. It was found that ENSO and PDO have spatially consistent and statistically significant influences on extreme precipitation, while the influence of NAO is regional and is not field significant. The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation response to large-scale climate variability is similar to that of total precipitation but somewhat weaker in terms of statistical significance. An El Niño condition or high phase of PDO corresponds to a substantially increased likelihood of extreme precipitation over a vast region of southern North America but a decreased likelihood of extreme precipitation in the north, especially in the Great Plains and Canadian prairies and the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley.

scholarly journals Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Temperature Extremes

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 3872-3889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Kenyon ◽  
Gabriele C. Hegerl
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Modes Of Climate Variability

Abstract The influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on worldwide summer and winter temperature extremes has been analyzed, namely, that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific interdecadal climate variability. Monthly indexes for temperature extremes from worldwide land areas are used describe moderate extremes, such as the number of exceedences of the 90th and 10th climatological percentiles, and more extreme events such as the annual, most extreme temperature. This study examines which extremes show a statistically significant (5%) difference between the positive and negative phases of a circulation regime. Results show that temperature extremes are substantially affected by large-scale circulation patterns, and they show distinct regional patterns of response to modes of climate variability. The effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are seen throughout the world but most clearly around the Pacific Rim and throughout all of North America. Likewise, the influence of Pacific interdecadal variability is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere, especially around the Pacific region and North America, but it extends to the Southern Hemisphere. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong continent-wide effect for Eurasia, with a clear but weaker effect over North America. Modes of variability influence the shape of the daily temperature distribution beyond a simple shift, often affecting cold and warm extremes and sometimes daytime and nighttime temperatures differently. Therefore, for reliable attribution of changes in extremes as well as prediction of future changes, changes in modes of variability need to be accounted for.

Climate variability and the timing of spring raptor migration in eastern North America

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis R. Sullivan ◽  
David J. Flaspohler ◽  
Robert E. Froese ◽  
Daena Ford
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Eastern North America

scholarly journals What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America? A systematic map protocol

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine C. Malpeli ◽  
Sarah R. Weiskopf ◽  
Laura Thompson ◽  
Amanda R. Hardy
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
North America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Systematic Map ◽  
And Migration

Abstract Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and disease have the potential to directly or indirectly affect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to describe the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America. This map will help to identify knowledge gaps and clusters of evidence, and can be used to inform future research directions and adaptive management strategies. Methods We will catalogue evidence on how climate variability and change affect the life-histories, population dynamics, and migration patterns of the fifteen ungulate species native to North America. We will search both academic and grey literature, using academic journal databases and specialist websites. Articles will be screened for inclusion at the title/abstract and full-text levels, and data will be extracted from articles that pass the full-text review. These data will be summarized quantitatively, visually, and with a narrative review to describe the distribution and abundance of evidence on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulates in North America.

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