scholarly journals Predictable winter climate in the North Atlantic sector during the 1997-1999 ENSO cycle

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 985-988 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. -W. Dong ◽  
R. T. Sutton ◽  
S. P. Jewson ◽  
A. O'Neill ◽  
J. M. Slingo
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Evidence for a Rapid Global Climate Shift across the Late 1960s

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 2721-2744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter G. Baines ◽  
Chris K. Folland
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
African Sahel

Abstract It is shown that a number of important characteristics of the global atmospheric circulation and climate changed in a near-monotonic fashion over the decade, or less, centered on the late 1960s. These changes were largest or commonest in tropical regions, the Southern Hemisphere, and the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere. Some, such as the decrease in rainfall in the African Sahel, are well known. Others appear to be new, but their combined extent is global and dynamical linkages between them are evident. The list of affected variables includes patterns of SST; tropical rainfall in the African Sahel and Sudan, the Amazon basin, and northeast Brazil; pressure and SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the west and central Pacific; various branches of the southern Hadley circulation and the southern subtropical jet stream; the summer North Atlantic Oscillation; south Greenland temperature; the Southern Hemisphere storm track; and, quite likely, the Antarctic sea ice boundary. These changes are often strongest in the June–August season; changes are also seen in December–February but are generally smaller. In Greenland, annual mean temperature seems to be affected strongly, reflecting similar changes in SST throughout the year in the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic. Possible causes for these coordinated changes are briefly evaluated. The most likely candidates appear to be a likely reduction in the northward oceanic heat flux associated with the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation in the 1950s to 1970s, which was nearly in phase with a rapid increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions during the 1950s and 1960s, particularly over Europe and North America.

scholarly journals Dynamical analysis of a reduced model for the North Atlantic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Quinn ◽  
Dylan Harries ◽  
Terence J. O’Kane
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Unstable State ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractThe dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed through a data-driven model obtained from atmospheric reanalysis data. We apply a regularized vector autoregressive clustering technique to identify recurrent and persistent states of atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector (110°W-0°E, 20°N-90°N). In order to analyze the dynamics associated with the resulting cluster-based models, we define a time-dependent linear delayed map with a switching sequence set a priori by the cluster affiliations at each time step. Using a method for computing the covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs) over various time windows, we produce sets of mixed singular vectors (for short windows) and approximate the asymptotic CLVs (for longer windows). The growth rates and alignment of the resulting time-dependent vectors are then analyzed. We find that the window chosen to compute the vectors acts as a filter on the dynamics. For short windows, the alignment and changes in growth rates are indicative of individual transitions between persistent states. For long windows, we observe an emergent annual signal manifest in the alignment of the CLVs characteristic of the observed seasonality in the NAO index. Analysis of the average finite-time dimension reveals the NAO− as the most unstable state relative to the NAO+, with persistent AR states largely stable. Our results agree with other recent theoretical and empirical studies that have shown blocking events to have less predictability than periods of enhanced zonal flow.

scholarly journals North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Medhaug ◽  
T. Furevik
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s) and the following colder period (1960s–1980s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

Evaluation of the North Atlantic SST forcing on the European and Northern African winter climate

2006 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca ◽  
Irene Polo ◽  
Encarna Serrano ◽  
Manuel Castro
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
The North Atlantic
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document