Projected impact of climate change on the freshwater and salt budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a global climate model

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1183-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. Miller ◽  
Gary L. Russell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone over three centuries

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 6805-6843 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
A. Gross ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
W. May ◽  
H. Skov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic

Abstract. The ozone chemistry over three centuries has been simulated based on climate prediction from a global climate model and constant anthropogenic emissions in order to separate out the effects on air pollution from climate change. Four decades in different centuries has been simulated using the chemistry version of the atmospheric long-range transport model; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) forced with meteorology predicted by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. The largest changes in both meteorology, ozone and its precursors is found in the 21st century, however, also significant changes are found in the 22nd century. At surface level the ozone concentration is predicted to increase due to climate change in the areas where substantial amounts of ozone precursors are emitted. Elsewhere a significant decrease is predicted at the surface. In the free troposphere a general increase is found in the entire Northern Hemisphere except in the tropics, where the ozone concentration is decreasing. In the Arctic the ozone concentration will increase in the entire air column, which most likely is due to changes in transport. The change in temperature, humidity and the naturally emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are governing with respect to changes in ozone both in the past, present and future century.

scholarly journals Biodiversity of the Arctic Ocean in the Face of Climate Change

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-91
Author(s):  
Jan Węsławski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Face

Biodiversity of the Arctic Ocean in the Face of Climate Change Global climate changes which has been observed over the recent years affects organisms occurring in the Arctic seas and the functioning of the whole maritime ecosystems there. The research note presents and briefly analyses the biological diversity of the Arctic Ocean and the most important factors which change the relations between organisms and the environment in the Arctic.

scholarly journals On the role of sea-ice transport in modifying arctic responses to global climate change

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 102-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Maslanik ◽  
Jeremy Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Ice Pack

The role of dynamics in modifying the response of the Arctic ice pack to inter-annually varying forcings and to climate perturbations is investigated using simulations from a two-dimensional ice model and a global climate model (GCM). Inter-annual variability in ice-covered area for 1985-93 is dominated by ice transport, and different transport regimes affect substantially the response of the ice pack to climate perturbations. The thermodynamic-only simulations are more sensitive to initial ice conditions, and respond less than the dynamk-thermodynamic model to small perturbations, but with a greater response to larger perturbations. Comparisons of GCM simulations that use different ice treatments highlights the importance of considering the distribution of ice thickness and extent in assessing climate-change responses.

scholarly journals Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5863-5874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Asadieh ◽  
Nir Y. Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Streamflow Extremes

Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

scholarly journals On the role of sea-ice transport in modifying Arctic responses to global climate change

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 102-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Maslanik ◽  
Jeremy Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Ice Pack

The role of dynamics in modifying the response of the Arctic ice pack to inter-annually varying forcings and to climate perturbations is investigated using simulations from a two-dimensional ice model and a global climate model (GCM). Inter-annual variability in ice-covered area for 1985-93 is dominated by ice transport, and different transport regimes affect substantially the response of the ice pack to climate perturbations. The thermodynamic-only simulations are more sensitive to initial ice conditions, and respond less than the dynamk-thermodynamic model to small perturbations, but with a greater response to larger perturbations. Comparisons of GCM simulations that use different ice treatments highlights the importance of considering the distribution of ice thickness and extent in assessing climate-change responses.

scholarly journals Regional variability of acidification in the Arctic: a sea of contrasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. E. Popova ◽  
A. Yool ◽  
Y. Aksenov ◽  
A. C. Coward ◽  
T. R. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Canadian Arctic Archipelago ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is a region that is particularly vulnerable to the impact of ocean acidification driven by rising atmospheric CO2, with potentially negative consequences for calcifying organisms such as coccolithophorids and foraminiferans. In this study, we use an ocean-only general circulation model, with embedded biogeochemistry and a comprehensive description of the ocean carbon cycle, to study the response of pH and saturation states of calcite and aragonite to rising atmospheric pCO2 and changing climate in the Arctic Ocean. Particular attention is paid to the strong regional variability within the Arctic, and, for comparison, simulation results are contrasted with those for the global ocean. Simulations were run to year 2099 using the RCP8.5 (an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenario with the highest concentrations of atmospheric CO2). The separate impacts of the direct increase in atmospheric CO2 and indirect effects via impact of climate change (changing temperature, stratification, primary production and freshwater fluxes) were examined by undertaking two simulations, one with the full system and the other in which atmospheric CO2 was prevented from increasing beyond its preindustrial level (year 1860). Results indicate that the impact of climate change, and spatial heterogeneity thereof, plays a strong role in the declines in pH and carbonate saturation (Ω) seen in the Arctic. The central Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay show greatest rates of acidification and Ω decline as a result of melting sea ice. In contrast, areas affected by Atlantic inflow including the Greenland Sea and outer shelves of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas, had minimal decreases in pH and Ω because diminishing ice cover led to greater vertical mixing and primary production. As a consequence, the projected onset of undersaturation in respect to aragonite is highly variable regionally within the Arctic, occurring during the decade of 2000–2010 in the Siberian shelves and Canadian Arctic Archipelago, but as late as the 2080s in the Barents and Norwegian seas. We conclude that, for future projections of acidification and carbonate saturation state in the Arctic, regional variability is significant and needs to be adequately resolved, with particular emphasis on reliable projections of the rates of retreat of the sea ice, which are a major source of uncertainty.

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