Arctic Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing from Observations and their Role in Sea Ice Decline Predicted by the NCAR CCSM3 Model During the 21st Century

2013 ◽  
pp. 47-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina V. Gorodetskaya ◽  
L.-Bruno Tremblay
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Sea Ice Decline

scholarly journals The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1887-1920
Author(s):  
J. J. Day ◽  
J. L. Bamber ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
J. Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) predict a rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice extent in the 21st century. The decline of September sea ice is expected to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free, leading to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers which are extremely sensitive to changes in climate. Records of past accumulation indicate that the surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard is also sensitive to changes in the position of the sea ice edge. To investigate the impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard a high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) was forced with a repeating cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice conditions for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090. By prescribing 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice for one simulation, the impact of sea ice decline is isolated. This study shows that the coupled impact of sea ice decline and SST increase results in a decrease in SMB, whereas the impact of sea ice decline alone causes an increase in SMB of similar magnitude.

Pan-Arctic and regional trends of reflectance, clouds and fluxes: implications for Arctic Amplification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Lelli ◽  
Narges Khosravi ◽  
Marco Vountas ◽  
John Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Simple Assumption ◽  
Spectral Reflectivity ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Regional Trends

<p>It is now well known that the sea ice extent in the Artic has been shrinking in the past three decades in the period known as the Arctic Amplification. A simple assumption would be that if the sea ice extent has been reduced, then the spectral reflectance at the top of the atmosphere - R<sub>TOA</sub> - would have also decreased across the Arctic. On the other hand, Arctic reflectivity also largely depends on the presence of clouds, shielding the underlying surface, and on changes of their optical and physical properties. Thus, the assessment of trends of spectral reflectivity and cloud properties are essential to understand those forcings and feedbacks considered drivers of Arctic Amplification as well as the interactions between the components of the Arctic cryosphere. In the reported study we observationally tackle the stated problem investigating changes of R<sub>TOA</sub> at selected wavelengths making use of spaceborne measurements of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME onboard ERS-2 and MetOp A/B/C) and of the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY onboard Envisat) for the period 1995-2018. We complement this record with cloud properties and fluxes at top of the atmosphere and at the surface, inferred from measurements of the post-meridiem orbits of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR onboard POES). Although the Pan-Arctic reflectivity has decreased, the analysis of regional trends shows distinct areas where the reflectivity trends diverge. While darkening areas can be attributed to seasonal sea ice decline, an increase of Arctic brightness over sea ice free regions can be largely attributed to changes in the optical properties of clouds. While the multiyear mean of the radiative forcing by clouds points to a TOA cooling and a surface warming, its trends exhibit opposite tendencies. In the last two decades, the cloud radiative effect at TOA is expected to warm the lower latitudes (below 75 N) and to cool the circumpolar belt, while an opposite trend at BOA, amounting to 5 W m<sup>-2 </sup>per decade, cools the lower Arctic latitudes and warms the permanent sea ice region, this effect being more pronounced in spring months (April to June) than in summer months (July to September).</p>

scholarly journals Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (18) ◽  
pp. 9720-9728 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Melia ◽  
K. Haines ◽  
E. Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Shipping

scholarly journals Decadal increase in Arctic dimethylsulfide emission

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (39) ◽  
pp. 19311-19317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martí Galí ◽  
Emmanuel Devred ◽  
Marcel Babin ◽  
Maurice Levasseur
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Phytoplankton Productivity ◽  
Physical Forcing ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Dimethylsulfide (DMS), a gas produced by marine microbial food webs, promotes aerosol formation in pristine atmospheres, altering cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. Recent studies suggest that DMS controls aerosol formation in the summertime Arctic atmosphere and call for an assessment of pan-Arctic DMS emission (EDMS) in a context of dramatic ecosystem changes. Using a remote sensing algorithm, we show that summertime EDMS from ice-free waters increased at a mean rate of 13.3 ± 6.7 Gg S decade−1 (∼33% decade−1) north of 70°N between 1998 and 2016. This trend, mostly explained by the reduction in sea-ice extent, is consistent with independent atmospheric measurements showing an increasing trend of methane sulfonic acid, a DMS oxidation product. Extrapolation to an ice-free Arctic summer could imply a 2.4-fold (±1.2) increase in EDMS compared to present emission. However, unexpected regime shifts in Arctic geo- and ecosystems could result in future EDMS departure from the predicted range. Superimposed on the positive trend, EDMS shows substantial interannual changes and nonmonotonic multiyear trends, reflecting the interplay between physical forcing, ice retreat patterns, and phytoplankton productivity. Our results provide key constraints to determine whether increasing marine sulfur emissions, and resulting aerosol–cloud interactions, will moderate or accelerate Arctic warming in the context of sea-ice retreat and increasing low-level cloud cover.

scholarly journals Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea Ice Decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 4027-4033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Ir Radiation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract Wintertime Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late twentieth century, particularly over the Atlantic sector that encompasses the Barents–Kara Seas and Baffin Bay. This sea ice decline is attributable to various Arctic environmental changes, such as enhanced downward infrared (IR) radiation, preseason sea ice reduction, enhanced inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean, and sea ice export. However, their relative contributions are uncertain. Utilizing ERA-Interim and satellite-based data, it is shown here that a positive trend of downward IR radiation accounts for nearly half of the sea ice concentration (SIC) decline during the 1979–2011 winter over the Atlantic sector. Furthermore, the study shows that the Arctic downward IR radiation increase is driven by horizontal atmospheric water flux and warm air advection into the Arctic, not by evaporation from the Arctic Ocean. These findings suggest that most of the winter SIC trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations.

Arctic Freshwater in CMIP6: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Zanowski ◽  
Alexandra Jahn ◽  
Marika Holland
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Freshwater Export

<p>Recently, the Arctic has undergone substantial changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in 7 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their agreement over the historical period (1980-2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. In the historical simulation, few models agree closely with observations over 1980-2000. In both future scenarios the models show an increase in liquid (ocean) freshwater storage in conjunction with a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5-8.5 than SSP1-2.6. The liquid fluxes through the gateways exhibit a more complex pattern, with models exhibiting a change in sign of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening and little change in the flux through the Bering Strait in addition to increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. A decomposition of the liquid fluxes into their salinity and volume contributions shows that the Barents Sea flux changes are driven by salinity changes, while the Bering Strait flux changes are driven by compensating salinity and volume changes. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on whether there will be a decrease, increase, or steady liquid freshwater export in the early to mid 21st century, although they mostly show increased liquid freshwater export in the late 21st century. The underlying cause of this is a difference in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux through these straits. Although the models broadly agree on the sign of late 21st century storage and flux changes, substantial differences exist between the magnitude of these changes and the models’ Arctic mean states, which shows no fundamental improvement in the models compared to CMIP5.</p>

Using art to explore children’s perceptions of their Arctic community in a changing climate 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lipson ◽  
Kim Reasor ◽  
Kååre Sikuaq Erickson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Marine Mammals ◽  
School Curriculum ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Bears ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Subsistence Hunting ◽  
Sea Ice Decline

<p>In this project we analyze artwork and recorded statements of 5<sup>th</sup> grade students from the community of Utqiaġvik, Alaska, who participated in a science-art outreach activity. The team consisted of a scientist (Lipson), an artist (Reasor) and an outreach specialist (Erickson) of Inupiat heritage from a village in Alaska. We worked with four 5th grade classes of about 25 students each at Fred Ipalook Elementary. The predominantly Inupiat people of Utqiaġvik are among those who will be most impacted by climate change and the loss of Arctic sea ice in the near future. Subsistence hunting of marine mammals associated with sea ice is central to the Inupiat way of life. Furthermore, their coastal homes and infrastructure are increasingly subject to damage from increased wave action on ice-free Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. While the people of this region are among the most directly vulnerable to climate change, the teachers reported that the subject is not generally covered in the elementary school curriculum.</p><p>The scientist and the local outreach specialist gave a short presentation about sea ice and climate change in the Arctic, with emphasis on local impacts to hunting and infrastructure. We then showed the students a large poster of historical and projected sea ice decline, and asked the students to help us fill in the white space beneath the lines. The artist led the children in making small paintings that represent things that are important to their lives in Utqiaġvik (they were encouraged to paint animals, but they were free to do whatever they wanted). We returned to the class later that week and had each student briefly introduce themselves and their painting, and place it on the large graph of sea ice decline, which included the dire predictions of the RCP8.5 scenario. Then we added the more hopeful RCP2.6 scenario to end on a positive note.</p><p>Common themes expressed in the students’ artwork included subsistence hunting, other aspects of traditional Inupiat culture, nature and family. Modern themes such as sports and Pokémon were also common. The students reacted to the topic of climate change with pictures of whales, polar bears and other animals, and captions such as “Save the world/ice/animals.” There were several paintings showing unsuccessful hunts for whales or seals. Some students displayed an understanding of ecosystem science in their recorded statements. For example, a student who painted the sun and another who painted a krill both succinctly described energy flow in food webs that support the production of whales (for example, “I drew krill because without krill there wouldn’t be whales”). Some of the students described the consequences of sea ice loss to local wildlife with devastating succinctness (sea ice is disappearing and polar bears will go extinct). The overall sense was that the children had a strong grasp of the potential consequences of climate change to their region and way of life.</p>

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