Modeling Emissions and Ozone Air Quality Impacts of Future Scenarios for Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain States

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (13) ◽  
pp. 7893-7902
Author(s):  
Rene Nsanzineza ◽  
Shannon L. Capps ◽  
Jana B. Milford
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Future Scenarios

Impacts of power generation on air quality in China—Part II: Future scenarios

2017 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 115-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianlin Hu ◽  
Lin Huang ◽  
Mindong Chen ◽  
Gang He ◽  
Hongliang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Future Scenarios

scholarly journals The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (17) ◽  
pp. 10667-10686
Author(s):  
Martin O. P. Ramacher ◽  
Lin Tang ◽  
Jana Moldanová ◽  
Volker Matthias ◽  
Matthias Karl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Health Effect ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Port Area ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships emit substantial amounts of sulfur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions in emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure, and health effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the Port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population-weighted concentrations, and health effects related to NO2, PM2.5, and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg m−3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios; for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from the year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of onshore electricity implementation for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port of up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of onshore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population-weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

scholarly journals Assessment of bias-adjusted PM<sub>2.5</sub> air quality forecasts over the continental United States during 2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1375-1406 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kang ◽  
R. Mathur ◽  
S. Trivikrama Rao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Recursive Algorithm ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Bias Adjustment ◽  
Air Quality Forecast

Abstract. To develop fine particular matter (PM2.5) air quality forecasts, a National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) system, which linked NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, was deployed in the developmental mode over the continental United States during 2007. This study investigates the operational use of a bias-adjustment technique called the Kalman Filter Predictor approach for improving the accuracy of the PM2.5 forecasts at monitoring locations. The Kalman Filter Predictor bias-adjustment technique is a recursive algorithm designed to optimally estimate bias-adjustment terms using the information extracted from previous measurements and forecasts. The bias-adjustment technique is found to improve PM2.5 forecasts (i.e. reduced errors and increased correlation coefficients) for the entire year at almost all locations. The NAQFC tends to overestimate PM2.5 during the cool season and underestimate during the warm season in the eastern part of the continental US domain, but the opposite is true for the pacific coast. In the Rocky Mountain region, the NAQFC system overestimates PM2.5 for the whole year. The bias-adjustment forecasts can quickly (after 2–3 days' lag) adjust to reflect the transition from one regime to the other. The modest computational requirements and systematical improvements in forecast results across all seasons suggest that this technique can be easily adapted to perform bias-adjustment for real-time PM2.5 air quality forecasts.

scholarly journals The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin O. P. Ramacher ◽  
Lin Tang ◽  
Jana Moldanová ◽  
Volker Matthias ◽  
Matthias Karl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Health Effect ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Port Area ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships are emitting substantial amounts of sulphur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions of emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure and health-effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population weighted concentrations and health-effects related to NO2, PM2.5 and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg/m3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios, for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of wide use of shore-site electricity for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port with up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of on-shore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

scholarly journals Power Plant Fuel Switching and Air Quality in a Tropical Forested Environment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adan S. S. Medeiros ◽  
Gisele Calderaro ◽  
Patricia C. Guimarães ◽  
Mateus R. Magalhaes ◽  
Marcos V. B. Morais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Energy Matrix ◽  
Fuel Switching ◽  
Ozone Concentrations

Abstract. How a changing energy matrix for power production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its fossil fuel power energy matrix from entirely fuel oil and diesel to nearly entirely natural gas across an approximately ten-year period. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for power production, which was the reality in 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for power production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on power generation, refining operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reaching reductions of 73 % (110 to 30 ppb) on the most polluted days. NOx and CO emissions decreased by approximately 89 % and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NOx-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. Thus, policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improve air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.

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