Assessing the effects of different management scenarios on the conservation of small island vulture populations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
MAURO ARESU ◽  
ANDREA ROTTA ◽  
ALBERTO FOZZI ◽  
ALFONSO CAMPUS ◽  
MARCO MUZZEDDU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Human Disturbance ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Supplementary Feeding ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Stochastic Growth ◽  
Griffon Vulture ◽  
Conservation Actions

Summary Although the population of Griffon Vulture Gyps fulvus is significantly increasing in Europe, in Italy the species is still on the Red List as ‘Critically Endangered’, with the last natural population persisting on the island of Sardinia. Several episodes of poisoning hampered the success of conservation actions implemented in the years 1987–1995. In 2005 there were estimated to be only 31–32 territorial pairs, with the population occupying the territories of Alghero and Bosa. We used a long-term dataset of reproductive records from the Sardinian Griffon Vulture populations to run a population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the extinction risk using the Vortex simulation software. The model estimated the probability of extinction over the next five generations (estimated generation time: 11 years, simulation time used: 55 years) as 96.4% for the Alghero population, and near-zero for the Bosa population. We used sensitivity analyses to understand how uncertainty about parameter values affect model outcomes. Population projections were evaluated under different management scenarios tackling the main threats (poisoning and human disturbance) and implementing conservation actions (supplementary feeding and restocking). Our results showed that population size is a critical factor in affecting the projections of population dynamics of Griffon Vultures. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of poisoning events to population persistence and showed that juvenile and adult mortality rates had a secondary impact on population viability. The only conservation measure effective in significantly increasing stochastic growth rates in the Alghero population, whose initial population was set at five individuals, was the complete removal of poisoning events. When targeting the Bosa population (initial population size 94 individuals), supplementary feeding, mitigation of the risk of poisoning episodes, restocking, and mitigation of human disturbance in the reproductive sites significantly increased stochastic growth rate. A cost-effectiveness analysis should be performed to prioritise interventions.

scholarly journals A population viability analysis (PVA) for Cabot's Tragopan (Tragopan caboti) in Wuyanling, south-east China

2007 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyun Zhang ◽  
Guangmei Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
East China ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Bird Conservation ◽  
Viability Analysis

AbstractUnderstanding the status of fragmented populations and predicting their fate is an increasingly important part of bird conservation. Population viability analysis (PVA) can help in this process and is widely used for assessing the extinction risk faced by threatened species and for finding the key factors affecting population status and survival prospects. From 1982 to 2004, 14 scientists studied the population of the globally threatened Cabot's Tragopan Tragopan caboti in Wuyanling National Natural Reserve (WNNR), south-east China and collected life-history data on the population. Using VORTEX, we analysed the viability of the population in the reserve and this predicted that the population size will increase for the next 50 years and will then show a very slight decline for the next 50 years. The loss of heterozygosity is predicted to be 14%, suggesting that the population may not be viable in the long term. Sensitivity analyses showed that nest loss is the most important factor affecting population size and the survival probability of the population, which is supported by field studies. Though the new evidence shows that Cabot's Tragopan can build nests in spruce forest successfully, broad-leaf forest is still necessary for them for foraging, especially at some times of the year. The simulation also shows that the probability of survival and the size of the population will decrease markedly if the extent of suitable habitat is reduced even relatively slowly (such as 0.1% per year). Overall, we conclude that the PVA has provided very informative guidance to future management and research on Cabot's Tragopan at Wuyanling National Nature Reserve.

Linking Conservation Actions with Population Viability Models: Reducing Uncertainty to Better Predict Management Effects on Viability

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Scott ◽  
Edward O. Garton ◽  
Brian Dennis ◽  
Jon S. Horne ◽  
Dale Goble ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Viability ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Management Effects

scholarly journals Can we reestablish a self-sustaining population? A case study on reintroduced Crested Ibis with population viability analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yashuai Zhang ◽  
Fang Wang ◽  
Zhenxia Cui ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Xia Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Wild Population ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Crested Ibis ◽  
Reintroduced Population

Abstract Background One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term viability. The wild population of the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) has recovered to approximately 4400, and several reintroduction programs have been carried out in China, Japan and Korea. Population viability analysis on this endangered species has been limited to the wild population, showing that the long-term population growth is restricted by the carrying capacity and inbreeding. However, gaps in knowledge of the viability of the reintroduced population and its drivers in the release environment impede the identification of the most effective population-level priorities for aiding in species recovery. Methods The field monitoring data were collected from a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Ningshan, China from 2007 to 2018. An individual-based VORTEX model (Version 10.3.5.0) was used to predict the future viability of the reintroduced population by incorporating adaptive patterns of ibis movement in relation to catastrophe frequency, mortality and sex ratio. Results The reintroduced population in Ningshan County is unlikely to go extinct in the next 50 years. The population size was estimated to be 367, and the population genetic diversity was estimated to be 0.97. Sensitivity analysis showed that population size and extinction probability were dependent on the carrying capacity and sex ratio. The carrying capacity is the main factor accounting for the population size and genetic diversity, while the sex ratio is the primary factor responsible for the population growth trend. Conclusions A viable population of the Crested Ibis can be established according to population viability analysis. Based on our results, conservation management should prioritize a balanced sex ratio, high-quality habitat and low mortality.

scholarly journals Agglomeration economies, congestion diseconomies, and fertility dynamics in a two-region economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madoka Muroishi ◽  
Akira Yakita
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Stability Condition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Interregional Migration ◽  
Stable Path ◽  
Regional Population ◽  
Initial Population Size

AbstractUsing a small, open, two-region economy model populated by two-period-lived overlapping generations, we analyze long-term agglomeration economy and congestion diseconomy effects of young worker concentration on migration and the overall fertility rate. When the migration-stability condition is satisfied, the distribution of young workers between regions is obtainable in each period for a predetermined population size. Results show that migration stability does not guarantee dynamic stability of the economy. The stationary population size stability depends on the model parameters and the initial population size. On a stable trajectory converging to the stationary equilibrium, the overall fertility rate might change non-monotonically with the population size of the economy because of interregional migration. In each period, interregional migration mitigates regional population changes caused by fertility differences on the stable path. Results show that the inter-regional migration-stability condition does not guarantee stability of the population dynamics of the economy.

scholarly journals Stochasticity in Colonial Growth Dynamics of Individual Bacterial Cells

2013 ◽  
Vol 79 (7) ◽  
pp. 2294-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos P. Koutsoumanis ◽  
Alexandra Lianou
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Parameters ◽  
Single Cells ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Bacterial Cells ◽  
Stochastic Growth ◽  
Bacterial Populations ◽  
Content Type

ABSTRACTConventional bacterial growth studies rely on large bacterial populations without considering the individual cells. Individual cells, however, can exhibit marked behavioral heterogeneity. Here, we present experimental observations on the colonial growth of 220 individual cells ofSalmonella entericaserotype Typhimurium using time-lapse microscopy videos. We found a highly heterogeneous behavior. Some cells did not grow, showing filamentation or lysis before division. Cells that were able to grow and form microcolonies showed highly diverse growth dynamics. The quality of the videos allowed for counting the cells over time and estimating the kinetic parameters lag time (λ) and maximum specific growth rate (μmax) for each microcolony originating from a single cell. To interpret the observations, the variability of the kinetic parameters was characterized using appropriate probability distributions and introduced to a stochastic model that allows for taking into account heterogeneity using Monte Carlo simulation. The model provides stochastic growth curves demonstrating that growth of single cells or small microbial populations is a pool of events each one of which has its own probability to occur. Simulations of the model illustrated how the apparent variability in population growth gradually decreases with increasing initial population size (N0). For bacterial populations withN0of >100 cells, the variability is almost eliminated and the system seems to behave deterministically, even though the underlying law is stochastic. We also used the model to demonstrate the effect of the presence and extent of a nongrowing population fraction on the stochastic growth of bacterial populations.

scholarly journals Density and population viability of coastal marten: a rare and geographically isolated small carnivore

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A Linnell ◽  
Katie Moriarty ◽  
David S Green ◽  
Taal Levi
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Coastal Forests ◽  
Private Lands ◽  
Geographically Isolated

Pacific martens (Martes caurina) in coastal forests of Oregon and northern California in the United States are rare and geographically isolated, prompting a petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act. If listed, regulations have the potential to substantially influence land-use decisions and forestry on public and private lands, but no estimates of population size, density, and viability of remnant marten populations are available for evaluating their conservation status. We used GPS telemetry, territory mapping, and spatial mark-recapture to estimate population size and density within the current extent of Pacific martens in central Oregon, within coastal forest in the Oregon dunes national recreational area. We then estimated population viability at differing levels of human-caused mortality (e.g. roadkill). We estimated 63 adult martens (95% Credible Interval: 58-73) and 73 (range: 46-91) potential territories across two subpopulations separated by a large barrier (Umpqua River). Marten density was 1.02 per km2, the highest reported in North America. Using population viability analysis, extinction risk for a subpopulation of 30 martens ranged from 34% to 100% with two or more annual human-caused mortalities. Absent broad-scale restoration of forest to conditions which support marten populations, limiting human-caused mortalities would likely have the greatest conservation impact.

scholarly journals A Revisit of Infinite Population Models for Evolutionary Algorithms on Continuous Optimization Problems

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-85
Author(s):  
Bo Song ◽  
Victor O.K. Li
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Continuous Optimization ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Population Models ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Infinite Population ◽  
Continuous Optimization Problems

Infinite population models are important tools for studying population dynamics of evolutionary algorithms. They describe how the distributions of populations change between consecutive generations. In general, infinite population models are derived from Markov chains by exploiting symmetries between individuals in the population and analyzing the limit as the population size goes to infinity. In this article, we study the theoretical foundations of infinite population models of evolutionary algorithms on continuous optimization problems. First, we show that the convergence proofs in a widely cited study were in fact problematic and incomplete. We further show that the modeling assumption of exchangeability of individuals cannot yield the transition equation. Then, in order to analyze infinite population models, we build an analytical framework based on convergence in distribution of random elements which take values in the metric space of infinite sequences. The framework is concise and mathematically rigorous. It also provides an infrastructure for studying the convergence of the stacking of operators and of iterating the algorithm which previous studies failed to address. Finally, we use the framework to prove the convergence of infinite population models for the mutation operator and the [Formula: see text]-ary recombination operator. We show that these operators can provide accurate predictions for real population dynamics as the population size goes to infinity, provided that the initial population is identically and independently distributed.

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