Appropriate initial conditions for asymptotic descriptions of the long term evolution of dynamical systems

A centre manifold or invariant manifold description of the evolution of a dynamical system provides a simplified view of the long term evolution of the system. In this work, I describe a procedure to estimate the appropriate starting position on the manifold which best matches an initial condition off the manifold. I apply the procedure to three examples: a simple dynamical system, a five-equation model of quasi-geostrophic flow, and shear dispersion in a channel. The analysis is also relevant to determining how best to account, within the invariant manifold description, for a small forcing in the full system.