The 50 American States in Space and Time: Applying Conditionally Autoregressive Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 543-557
Author(s):  
Joshua L. Jackson ◽  
James E. Monogan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Data Structures ◽  
State Politics ◽  
Social Welfare Policy ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Car Model ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
American States ◽  
Conditionally Autoregressive

AbstractSpatial conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models in a hierarchical Bayesian framework can be informative for understanding state politics, or any similar population of border-defined observations. This article explains how a hierarchical CAR model is specified and estimated and then uses Monte Carlo analyses to show when the CAR model offers efficiency gains. We apply this model to data structures common to state politics: A cross-sectional example replicates Erikson, Wright and McIver’s (1993) Statehouse Democracy model and a multilevel panel model example replicates Margalit’s (2013) study of social welfare policy preferences. The CAR model fits better in each case and some inferences differ from models that ignore geographic correlation.

It could happen to you: how perceptions of personal risk shape support for social welfare policy in the American States

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 535-552
Author(s):  
Kerri Milita ◽  
Jaclyn Bunch ◽  
Sara Yeganeh
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Social Welfare Policy ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Welfare Programs ◽  
Welfare Spending ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Social Welfare Programs ◽  
American States ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIs public support for social welfare programs’ contingent on an individual’s exposure to risk? Prior work has examined whether tough economic times lead people to “reach out” (i.e. become more accepting of government expansion of social welfare programs) or “pull back” (i.e. become less supportive of welfare). However, these studies do not account for the conditional relationship between an individual’s exposure to risk and his or her risk orientation. Using new survey data, we find that an individual’s risk orientation moderates the relationship between risk exposure and public support for welfare spending. When individuals perceive exposure to economic risk, those who are risk averse are highly supportive of welfare expansion; those who are risk acceptant become less supportive. Broadly, these findings suggest that public support for welfare spending is contingent on whether an individual perceives exposure to risk and, if so, the individual’s propensity to tolerate that risk.

Social Welfare Policy in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Horman Chitonge ◽  
Ntombifikile Mazibuko
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Welfare Policy ◽  
Social Welfare Policy

Don’t You be My Neighbor: Support for Racial-Exclusion Constitutional Provisions in Mid-19th Century Indiana and Illinois

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110153
Author(s):  
Jac C. Heckelman ◽  
John Dinan
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Welfare Policy ◽  
Social Welfare Policy ◽  
Racial Threat ◽  
Southern State ◽  
State Constitutions ◽  
Racial Exclusion ◽  
Constitutional Conventions ◽  
Levels Of Support

Racially discriminatory provisions in the U.S. Constitution and southern state constitutions have been extensively analyzed, but insufficient attention has been brought to these provisions when included in northern state constitutions. We examine constitutional provisions excluding blacks from entering the state that were adopted by various northern states in the mid-19th Century. Previous scholarship has focused on the statements and votes of the convention delegates who framed these provisions. However, positions taken by delegates need not have aligned with the views of their constituents. Delegates to state constitutional conventions held in Illinois in 1847, Indiana in 1850 and 1851, and Oregon in 1857 opted to submit to voters racial-exclusion provisions separate from the vote to approve the rest of the constitution. We exploit this institutional feature by using county-level election returns in Illinois and Indiana to test claims about the importance of partisan affiliation, religious denomination, social-welfare policy concerns, labor competition, and racial-threat theory in motivating popular support for entrenching racially discriminatory policies in constitutions. We find greater levels of support for racial exclusion in areas where Democratic candidates polled better and in areas closer to slave-holding states where social-welfare policy concerns would be heightened. We find lower levels of support for racial exclusion in areas (in Indiana) with greater concentrations of Quakers. Our findings are not consistent with labor competition or racial-threat theories.

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