Modeling-Related Processes With an Excess of Zeros

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (04) ◽  
pp. 889-902
Author(s):  
David Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Excess Of Zeros ◽  
Party Behavior ◽  
Parameters Of Interest ◽  
Simulation Exercises ◽  
Better Than

Political science research frequently models binary or ordered outcomes involving related processes. However, traditional modeling of these outcomes ignores common data issues and cannot capture nuances. There is often an excess of zeros, the observed outcomes for different actors are inherently related, and competing actors may respond to the same factors differently. This paper extends existing models and develops a zero-inflated multivariate ordered probit to simultaneously address these issues. This model performs better than existing models at capturing the true parameters of interest, estimates the nature of the related processes, and captures the differences in actors’ decision-making. I demonstrate these benefits through simulation exercises and an application to party behavior in Mexico.

The Cognitive Revolution and the Political Psychology of Elite Decision Making

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie M. Hafner-Burton ◽  
D. Alex Hughes ◽  
David G. Victor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Large Shift ◽  
Crisis Bargaining ◽  
Strategic Bargaining ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cognitive Revolution ◽  
Better Than

Experimental evidence in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics is transforming the way political science scholars think about how humans make decisions in areas of high complexity, uncertainty, and risk. Nearly all those studies utilize convenience samples of university students, but in the real world political elites actually make most pivotal political decisions such as threatening war or changing the course of economic policy. Highly experienced elites are more likely to exhibit the attributes of rational decision-making; and over the last fifteen years a wealth of studies suggest that such elites are likely to be more skilled in strategic bargaining than samples with less germane experience. However, elites are also more likely to suffer overconfidence, which degrades decision-making skills. We illustrate implications for political science with a case study of crisis bargaining between the US and North Korea. Variations in the experience of US elite decision-makers between 2002 and 2006 plausibly explain the large shift in US crisis signaling better than other rival hypotheses such as “Iraq fatigue.” Beyond crisis bargaining other major political science theories might benefit from attention to the attributes of individual decision-makers.

Beérkezett könyvek

2008 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 607-608
Author(s):  
Csaba Pléh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Human Mind ◽  
Frankfurt Am Main ◽  
Conscious Decision ◽  
Better Than

ErősFerenc, LénárdKataés BókayAntal(szerk.) Typus Budapestiensis. Tanulmányok a pszichoanalízis budapesti iskolájának történetéről éshatásáról. Thalassa, Budapest, 2008, 447 oldalHargittaiIstván: Doktor DNS. Őszinte beszélgetések James D. Watsonnal. Vince Kiadó, Budapest, 2008, 223 oldalKutrovátzGábor,LángBenedekésZemplénGábor: A tudomány határa. Typotex,Budapest, 2008, 376 oldalEngerl, C. andSinger, W. (eds) Better than conscious? Decision making, the human mind, and implications for institutions . MIT Press, Cambridge, 2008, xiv + 449 oldalKondor, Zsuzsanna: Embedded thinking. Multimedia and the new rationality. Peter Lang, Frankfurt am Main, 2008, xi + 169 oldalSíklakiIstván(szerk.): Szóbeli befolyásolás. I–II. Typotex, Budapest,_n

Wargaming for Political Science Research

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Lin-Greenberg ◽  
Reid Pauly ◽  
Jacquelyn Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Science Research

Design, Development and Comparison of Heuristic Driven Algorithms Based on the Crossed Domain Products’ Reviews for User’s Summarization

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 884-892
Author(s):  
Sartaj Ahmad ◽  
Ashutosh Gupta ◽  
Neeraj Kumar Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Shopping ◽  
Recent Time ◽  
Design Development ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Feature Based ◽  
Use Of Internet ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Better Than

Background: In recent time, people love online shopping but before any shopping feedbacks or reviews always required. These feedbacks help customers in decision making for buying any product or availing any service. In the country like India this trend of online shopping is increasing very rapidly because awareness and the use of internet which is increasing day by day. As result numbers of customers and their feedbacks are also increasing. It is creating a problem that how to read all reviews manually. So there should be some computerized mechanism that provides customers a summary without spending time in reading feedbacks. Besides big number of reviews another problem is that reviews are not structured. Objective: In this paper, we try to design, implement and compare two algorithms with manual approach for the crossed domain Product’s reviews. Methods: Lexicon based model is used and different types of reviews are tested and analyzed to check the performance of these algorithms. Results: Algorithm based on opinions and feature based opinions are designed, implemented, applied and compared with the manual results and it is found that algorithm # 2 is performing better than algorithm # 1 and near to manual results. Conclusion: Algorithm # 2 is found better on the different product’s reviews and still to be applied on other product’s reviews to enhance its scope. Finally, it will be helpful to automate existing manual process.

Status of Women Contribution in Political Research World: A Case Study of the Journal Political Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumeer Gul ◽  
Sangita Gupta ◽  
Sumaira Jan ◽  
Sabha Ali
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Research Productivity ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Political Research ◽  
Female Authors ◽  
Political Analysis ◽  
Number Of Citations ◽  
Status Of Women

The study endeavors to highlight the contribution of women in the field of Political research globally. The study is based on the data gathered from journal, Political Analysis which comprises a list of articles published by authors for the period, 2004-2014. The proportion of the male and female authors listed in the publication was ascertained. There exists a colossal difference among male and female researchers in the field of Political Science research, which is evident from the fact that 88.30% of publications are being contributed by male authors while as just 11.70 % of publications are contributed by female authors. Furthermore, citation analysis reveals that highest number of citations is for the male contributions. In addition, the collaborative pattern indicates that largest share of the collaboration is between male-male authors. This evidently signifies that female researchers are still lagging behind in the field of Political Science research in terms of research productivity (publications)and thus, accordingly, need to excel in that particular field to overcome the gender difference. The study highlights status of women contribution in the Journal of Political Analysis from the period 2004-2014. The study provides a wider perspective of female research-contribution based on select parameters. However, the study can be further be enriched by taking into consideration various other criteria like what obstacles are faced by female researchers impeding their research, what are the effects of age and marital status on the research-productivity of female authors, etc.

Making the most of individual differences in joint decisions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahador Bahrami
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Direct Evidence ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Adaptive Value ◽  
Joint Decisions ◽  
Cultural Data ◽  
Better Than

Evidence for and against the idea that “two heads are better than one” is abundant. This chapter considers the contextual conditions and social norms that predict madness or wisdom of crowds to identify the adaptive value of collective decision-making beyond increased accuracy. Similarity of competence among members of a collective impacts collective accuracy, but interacting individuals often seem to operate under the assumption that they are equally competent even when direct evidence suggest the opposite and dyadic performance suffers. Cross-cultural data from Iran, China, and Denmark support this assumption of similarity (i.e., equality bias) as a sensible heuristic that works most of the time and simplifies social interaction. Crowds often trade off accuracy for other collective benefits such as diffusion of responsibility and reduction of regret. Consequently, two heads are sometimes better than one, but no-one holds the collective accountable, not even for the most disastrous of outcomes.

scholarly journals Briefs

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 426-427
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Graduate School ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Summer Institute ◽  
Science Students ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Program Goal ◽  
Final Project ◽  
Duke University ◽  
Program Funding

The 2013 APSA RBSI Program has received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to continue the RBSI for 2013. Additional program funding is provided by Duke University and APSA. Each summer, the Institute gives 20 students a look at the world of graduate study with a program of two transferable credit courses, one in quantitative analysis and one in race and American politics, to introduce the intellectual demands of graduate school and political science research methods. For a final project for both courses, students prepare original, empirical research papers, and top students are given the opportunity to present their research at APSA's Annual Meeting. Named in honor of the 1950 Nobel Peace Prize winner and former APSA President, Ralph J. Bunche, the Ralph Bunche Summer Institute (RBSI) program goal is to encourage students to pursue academic careers in political science. Students were notified of their acceptance into this year's program in mid-March. For more information about the program, visitwww.apsanet.org/rbsi.

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