Regular Voters, Marginal Voters and the Electoral Effects of Turnout

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Fowler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Election Timing ◽  
Sources Of Variation ◽  
Exogenous Factors ◽  
Different Dimensions ◽  
Election Results ◽  
States Weather

How do marginal voters differ from regular voters? This article develops a method for comparing the partisan preferences of regular voters to those marginal voters whose turnout decisions are influenced by exogenous factors and applies it to two sources of variation in turnout in the United States—weather and election timing. In both cases, marginal voters are over 20 percentage points more supportive of the Democratic Party than regular voters—a significant divide. The findings suggest that the expansion or contraction of the electorate can have important consequences. Moreover, the findings suggest that election results do not always reflect the preferences of the citizenry, because the marginal citizens who may stay home have systematically different preferences than those who participate. Finally, the methods developed in the article may enable future researchers to compare regular and marginal voters on many different dimensions and in many different electoral settings.

scholarly journals Debt Relief and Debtor Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Consumer Bankruptcy Protection

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 1272-1311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Will Dobbie ◽  
Jae Song
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Consumer Bankruptcy ◽  
Annual Earnings ◽  
The Impact

Consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the United States, but little is known about its impact on debtors. We use 500,000 bankruptcy filings matched to administrative tax and foreclosure data to estimate the impact of Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on subsequent outcomes. Exploiting the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges, we find that Chapter 13 protection increases annual earnings by $5,562, decreases five-year mortality by 1.2 percentage points, and decreases five-year foreclo-sure rates by 19.1 percentage points. These results come primarily from the deterioration of outcomes among dismissed filers, not gains by granted filers. (JEL D14, I12, J22, J31, K35)

The Impact of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions on the Sources of Health Insurance Coverage of Undergraduate Students in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 107755872110158
Author(s):  
Priyanka Anand ◽  
Dora Gicheva
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Affordable Care Act ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Health Insurance Coverage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Affordable Care Act ◽  
Medicaid Expansions

This article examines how the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions affected the sources of health insurance coverage of undergraduate students in the United States. We show that the Affordable Care Act expansions increased the Medicaid coverage of undergraduate students by 5 to 7 percentage points more in expansion states than in nonexpansion states, resulting in 17% of undergraduate students in expansion states being covered by Medicaid postexpansion (up from 9% prior to the expansion). In contrast, the growth in employer and private direct coverage was 1 to 2 percentage points lower postexpansion for students in expansion states compared with nonexpansion states. Our findings demonstrate that policy efforts to expand Medicaid eligibility have been successful in increasing the Medicaid coverage rates for undergraduate students in the United States, but there is evidence of some crowd out after the expansions—that is, some students substituted their private and employer-sponsored coverage for Medicaid.

Logistic problems in the Canadian Arctic

Polar Record ◽  
1961 ◽  
Vol 10 (67) ◽  
pp. 365-371
Author(s):  
T. A. Harwood
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Weather Bureau ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Resolute Bay ◽  
States Weather

In 1946 the United States Weather Bureau and the Canadian Meteorological Service installed the first of the Joint Arctic Weather Stations at Resolute Bay. The network of satellite stations was extended into the Arctic archipelago in the following years on roughly a 275-mile spacing to Mould Bay, Isachsen, Eureka and Alert.

scholarly journals A Test of Racial Bias in Capital Sentencing

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (11) ◽  
pp. 3397-3433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina ◽  
Eliana La Ferrara
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Capital Punishment ◽  
Racial Bias ◽  
The United States ◽  
Type I ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Trial Courts ◽  
Southern States ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
White Defendants

We collect a new dataset on capital punishment in the United States and we propose a test of racial bias based upon patterns of sentence reversals. We model the courts as minimizing type I and II errors. If trial courts were unbiased, conditional on defendant's race the error rate should be independent of the victim's race. Instead we uncover 3 and 9 percentage points higher reversal rates in direct appeal and habeas corpus cases, respectively, against minority defendants who killed whites. The pattern for white defendants is opposite but not statistically significant. This bias is confined to Southern states. (JEL J15, K41, K42)

Legal basis of «democracy»

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Polischuk
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bill Of Rights ◽  
Legal Basis ◽  
Founding Fathers ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Capitol Hill ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Constitution ◽  
Election Results

The article examines the main political events that took place in the United States from the controversial election results to the tragic events on Capitol Hill for Trump supporters, which led to human casualties, finally untied the hands of the Democrats and allowed them to bury all the democratic values that America has taught the whole world since the adoption of the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights by the founding fathers of the state.

scholarly journals Freedom Fries

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Michaels ◽  
Xiaojia Zhi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us

Do firms always choose the cheapest suitable inputs, or can group attitudes affect their choices? To investigate this question, we examine the deterioration of relations between the United States and France from 2002–2003, when France's favorability rating in the US fell by 48 percentage points. We estimate that the worsening attitudes reduced bilateral trade by about 9 percent and that trade in inputs probably declined similarly, by about 8 percent. We use these estimates to calculate the average decrease in firms' willingness to pay for French (or US) commodities when attitudes worsened. (JEL D24, F13, F14, L14, L21)

The 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign: Changing Discourse on Palestine

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-49
Author(s):  
Phyllis Bennis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Antiwar Movement ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Policy Analyst ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Impact

This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public's “ignorance” on Israel/Palestine.

scholarly journals Effects of Side-Effect Risk Framing Strategies on COVID-19 Vaccine Intentions in the United States and the United Kingdom: A Randomized Controlled Trial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikkil Sudharsanan ◽  
Caterina Favaretti ◽  
Violetta Hachaturyan ◽  
Till Baernighausen ◽  
Alain Vandormael
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Randomized Controlled Trial ◽  
Side Effect ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
The United States ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Framing Strategies

Vaccination rates have stagnated in the United States and the United Kingdom leading to the continuing spread of COVID-19. Fear and concern over vaccine side-effects is one of the main drivers of hesitancy. Drawing from behavioral science and health communication theory, we conducted a randomized controlled trial among 8998 adults to determine whether the way COVID-19 vaccine side-effects are framed and presented to individuals can influence their willingness to take a vaccine. We presented participants information on a hypothetical future COVID-19 vaccine -- including information on its side-effect rate -- and then examined the effect of three side-effect framing strategies on individuals stated willingness to take this vaccine: adding a qualitative risk label next to the numerical risk, adding comparison risks, and for those presented with comparisons, framing the comparison in relative rather than absolute terms. Based on a pre-registered and published analysis plan, we found that adding a simple descriptive risk label (very low risk) next to the numerical side-effect increased participants' willingness to take the COVID-19 vaccine by 3.0 percentage points (p = 0.003). Providing a comparison to motor vehicle mortality increased COVID-19 vaccine willingness by 2.4 percentage points (p = 0.051). These effects were independent and additive: participants that received both a qualitative risk label and comparison to motor-vehicle mortality were 6.1 percentage points (p < 0.001) more likely to report willingness to take a vaccine compared to those who did not receive a label or comparison. Taken together, our results reveal that despite increasingly strong vaccination hesitancy and exposure to large amounts of vaccine misinformation, low-cost side-effect framing strategies can meaningfully affect vaccination intentions at a population level.

A History of the United States Weather Bureau

1969 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Donald R. Whitnah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Weather Bureau ◽  
History Of ◽  
States Weather

The Politics of Contentment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Self ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Small Minority ◽  
Modern Politics

This chapter focuses on the politics of contentment. In the past, the contented and the self-approving were a small minority in any national entity, with the majority of the citizenry being relegated outside. In the United States, the favored are now numerous, greatly influential of voice and a majority of those who vote. This, and not the division of voters as between political parties, is what defines modern American political behavior and shapes modern politics. The chapter first considers the commitment of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to the policies of contentment before discussing the effects of money and media on the politics of contentment. It also examines American electoral politics, social exclusion, and international relations in the context of the politics of contentment. Finally, it tackles the question of whether, and to what extent, the politics of contentment in the United States extends to other industrial countries.

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