A New Approach to Estimating Electoral Instability in Parties

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dani M. Marinova
Keyword(s):  
Construct Validity ◽  
Comparative Research ◽  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
New Parties ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Mass Behavior ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
Different Sources

Recent scholarship has identified problems in the measurement of party system instability. To limit the conflation of different sources of instability in party systems (e.g., electoral shifts between stable parties and instability in parties, such as mergers, splinters or new parties), this article introduces a new indicator of electoral instability in parties, tests its robustness and construct validity and demonstrates its usefulness empirically. The indicators of party instability and the accompanying data of 27 European democracies, 1987–2011, will be valuable resources in comparative research on the interplay between elite and mass behavior, party and electoral systems, and democratic consolidation.

Conclusion

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Kenny
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Research ◽  
Party System ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
System Change ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Political Authority ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Institutional Reforms

This final chapter draws out the two main conclusions from the book. First, it discusses the policy implications of its findings. It suggests caution in the decentralization of political authority as a remedy for democratic underperformance in patronage-based democracies. Rather than making government more accountable, it may instead exacerbate principal–agent conflicts between center and periphery. More important than decentralization in the short term may be institutional reforms at the center that make parties more programmatic and responsive to citizens. Second, it sets out some of the implications of the book’s findings for the study of populism and party-system change more generally. It shows that the varied ways in which voters and parties are linked creates different pathways to the decline of establishment parties and the success of populist alternatives. Further comparative research across party systems might contribute positively to institutional reform and political change.

6. Electoral Systems and Direct Democracy

2021 ◽  
pp. 89-111
Author(s):  
Catherine E. De Vries ◽  
Sara B. Hobolt ◽  
Sven-Oliver Proksch ◽  
Jonathan B. Slapin
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The European Union ◽  
View Point ◽  
Institutional Differences ◽  
Over Time

This chapter starts off with an overview of the institutions that decide how citizens cast ballots, firstly, in elections, and secondly, directly for policy. The former is related to electoral systems and the latter to direct democracy. The chapter considers the implications of these institutions for party systems and political representation from the view point of the principal–agent framework. There is a large variety of electoral systems used in Europe. Most elections are held using the system of proportional representation. However, there are important institutional differences that need to be remembered. The chapter then goes on to examine the effects of electoral systems on the party system. This is carried out with electoral change over time in mind. Finally, the chapter turns to direct democracy and analyses the use of referendums, specifically with regard to the question of the European Union (EU).

The Electoral System, the Party System and Accountability in Parliamentary Government

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 744-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTOPHER KAM ◽  
ANTHONY M. BERTELLI ◽  
ALEXANDER HELD
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Party System ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Parliamentary Government

Electoral accountability requires that voters have the ability to constrain the incumbent government’s policy-making power. We express the necessary conditions for this claim as an accountability identity in which the electoral system and the party system interact to shape the accountability of parliamentary governments. Data from 400 parliamentary elections between 1948 and 2012 show that electoral accountability is contingent on the party system’s bipolarity, for example, with parties arrayed in two distinct blocs. Proportional electoral systems achieve accountability as well as majoritarian ones when bipolarity is strong but not when it is weak. This is because bipolarity decreases the number of connected coalitions that incumbent parties can join to preserve their policy-making power. Our results underscore the limitations that party systems place on electoral reform and the benefits that bipolarity offers for clarifying voters’ choices and intensifying electoral competition.

Predicting Party Systems from Electoral Systems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rein Taagepera ◽  
Matthew Shugart
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Product Model ◽  
District Magnitude ◽  
Upper Limits ◽  
Predictive Relationships ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Quantities Of Interest

The Seat Product Model matters to electoral and party systems specialists in what it is able to predict, and to all political scientists as one example of how to predict. The seat product (MS) is the product of assembly size (S) and electoral district magnitude (M, number of seats allocated). Without any data input, thinking about conceptual lower and upper limits leads to a sequence of logically grounded models that apply to simple electoral systems. The resulting formulas allow for precise predictions about likely party system outputs, such as the number of parties, the size of the largest party, and other quantities of interest. The predictions are based entirely on institutional inputs. And when tested on real-world electoral data, these predictions are found to explain over 60% of the variance. This means that they provide a baseline expectation, against which actual countries and specific elections can be compared. To the broader political science audience, this research sends the following message: Interconnected quantitatively predictive relationships are a hallmark of developed science, but they are still rare in social sciences. These relationships can exist with regard to political phenomena if one is on the lookout for them. Logically founded predictions are stronger than merely empirical relationships or predictions of the direction of effects. Finally, isolated equations that connect various factors are nice, but equations that interconnect pack even more predictive punch. Political scientists should strive for connections among connections. This would lead to a more scientific political science.

scholarly journals Active and passive: two ways party systems influence electoral outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-467
Author(s):  
Miroslav Nemčok
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Set Size ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Chapel Hill ◽  
Ideological Polarization ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Choice Set

AbstractParties can not only actively adjust the electoral rules to reach more favourable outcomes, as is most often recognized in political science, but they also passively create an environment that systematically influences electoral competition. This link is theorized and included in the wider framework capturing the mutual dependence of electoral systems and party systems. The impact of passive influence is successfully tested on one out of two factors closely related to party systems: choice set size (i.e., number of options provided to voters) and degree of ideological polarization. The research utilizes established datasets (i.e., Constituency-Level Elections Archive, Party System Polarization Index, Chapel Hill Expert Survey, and Manifesto Project Database) and via regression analysis with clustered robust standard errors concludes that the choice set size constitutes an attribute with passive influence over electoral systems. Thus, it must be reflected when outcomes of electoral systems are estimated or compared across various contexts.

The post-crisis Irish voter

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
New Parties ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
University Courses ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
History Of ◽  
Established Democracies ◽  
Unique Dataset ◽  
Cross National

This is the definitive study of the Irish general election of 2016 – the most dramatic election in a generation, which among other things resulted in the worst electoral outcome for Ireland’s established parties, the most fractionalized party system in the history of the state, and the emergence of new parties and groups, some of these of a ‘populist’ hue. This was one of the most volatile elections in Ireland (and among one of the most volatile elections in Europe), with among the lowest of election turnouts in the state’s history. These outcomes follow a pattern seen across a number of Western Europe’s established democracies in which the ‘deep crisis’ of the Great Recession has wreaked havoc on party systems. The objective of this book is to assess this most extraordinary of Irish elections both in its Irish and wider cross-national context. With contributions from leading scholars on Irish elections and parties, and using a unique dataset – the Irish National Election Study (INES) 2016 – this volume explores voting patterns at Ireland’s first post crisis election and it considers the implications for the electoral landscape and politics in Ireland. This book will be of interest to scholars of parties and elections. It should provide important supplementary reading to any university courses on Irish politics. And it should also be of interest to general readers interested in contemporary Irish affairs.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Regional and National Level of Electoral Competition and Parameters of Party System Structuring in the Countries of the Visegrad Group

2019 ◽  
pp. 132-139
Author(s):  
Oleksandra Cholovska
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Political Process ◽  
National Level ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Visegrad Group

The vast majority of party and electoral researches, including the countries of the Visegrad Group,  focuses on the impact of elections and electoral systems on the institutionalization of parties and party systems, predominantly at the national level. However, the proposed article broadened this analysis mainly at the national level, in particular by analyzing regional elections and regional party systems. This is due to the fact that party-electoral interconnection is not one-tier, but instead is determined territorially, including territorial or administrative heterogeneity during elections. In other words, the study aims to show how region and regional elections (in the format of party system regionalization) affect the national political process, and, conversely, how national elections (in the format of party system nationalization) influence the regional political process in the context of the countries of the Visegrad Group. In this regard, the indicators of voter turnout, electoral volatility, influence of regional parties and coalitions, peculiarities and consequences of electoral blocsʼ and coalitionsʼ formation, parameters of territorial and socio-political cleavages and constructions of electoral systems and formulas were the directories of this relationship, both at national and regional levels, in the proposed study. Their use at the example of the Visegrad countries has made it possible to argue that the relationship between regional and national level of electoral competition and the parameters of the structuring of party systems in the analyzed region is largely reflected in nationalization processes at both national and regional level. Although it is theoretically found that such a relationship is bilateral and counter-dependent on the processes of regionalization of national elections and national electoral systems, or instead on nationalization of regional elections and regional party systems. Keywords: national elections, regional elections, party systems, nationalization and regionalization of party systems, the countries of the Visegrad Group.

scholarly journals Electoral Systems and Party Systems in East Asia

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Reilly
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The Past ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
The Way

Over the past two decades, numerous East Asian states have undergone transitions to democracy. One of the most distinctive aspects of democratization has been the way East Asian democracies have sought to manage political change by institutional innovations that aim to influence the development of the region's party systems. These reforms have typically tried to promote more centrist and stable politics by encouraging fewer, and hence larger, political parties. The result is an increasing evolution of the region's electoral and party system constellations toward more majoritarian elections and, in some cases, nascent two-party systems.

Towards turbulent times: measuring and explaining party system (de-)institutionalization in Western Europe (1945–2015)

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Chiaramonte ◽  
Vincenzo Emanuele
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cleavage Structure

Over the last decades, Western European party systems have experienced growing levels of electoral volatility and the recurring emergence of successful new parties. This evidence calls into question the issue of party system institutionalization (PSI), a topic taken for granted so far in Western Europe, following the conventional wisdom that party systems are highly institutionalized in this region. This article tackles this issue and provides some contributions: it offers a theoretical clarification of PSI and develops an index allowing for cross-country and cross-time comparability; it looks for an explanation, by testing the impact of various potential determinants and their changes over time. Covering 324 elections in 19 countries since 1945, the analysis shows that, since the 1970s, a process of de-institutionalization is going on and that PSI is mainly a function of the cleavage structure and the number of parties, with economic performance becoming relevant only in the last period.

scholarly journals Spain’s party system development trends in the context of the electoral cycle 2019

2019 ◽  
pp. 36-42
Author(s):  
A. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
System Development ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Autonomous Communities ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Electoral Cycle

The topicality of the article is that the party system of Spain is undergoing serious transformations, the positioning of political forces and their ideologies, the organizational structure are changing significantly. National parliamentary elections are held for the fourth time in 4 years, which is unique to the countries of consolidated democracy. Trends in the development of Spain are relevant for cross- national comparisons of party systems. Methods – systems approach, synchronous comparative analysis, a secondary analysis of the results of opinion polls, mapping of party support in the elections. Materials: regulations; statements by party leaders; pre-election programs; results of sociological surveys; statistics on the results of elections. Results: The crisis of the party system in Spain is peculiar to the transition from a bipartisan model to a model of moderate pluralism, increased fragmentation, significant volatility, and the dependence of the main national parties on the support of regional parties. In the electoral cycle of 2019, the party system of Spain is a system of moderate pluralism (5 leading actors) with the growing role of regional parties, pragmatic coalitions are inevitable for creating a government. The economic recovery of 2014–2019 influenced the decline in the influence of “Unidos Podemos”, their electorate partially returned to the PSOE. In European and subnational elections, these trends are even more pronounced due to the format of electoral systems and the isolation of regional party systems. The threefold structure of the Spanish electorate, distributed mainly among left-leaning centers, center-right and regional nationalists, is preserved. An analysis of the statistical results of the elections and questionnaires proves an inversely correlated relationship between the level of support for the PSOE and “Unidos Podemos” in the center-left segment, and the level of support for the People’s Party, “Citizens” and “Vox” in the center-right camp. The influence of parties is extremely uneven across autonomous communities, and unevenness is increasing. The increase in the instability of the party system in Spain is predicted due to the growing influence of new parties and the underdeveloped culture of parliamentary coalitions. This process increases the chances of Catalan nationalists. A radical reform of the political system of Spain is brewing; the electorate of the left parties expresses the greatest demand for reform.

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