Updating Bayesian(s): A Critical Evaluation of Bayesian Process Tracing

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-74
Author(s):  
Sherry Zaks
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Current State ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
Science Association

Given the increasing quantity and impressive placement of work on Bayesian process tracing, this approach has quickly become a frontier of qualitative research methods. Moreover, it has dominated the process-tracing modules at the Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research (IQMR) and the American Political Science Association (APSA) meetings for over five years, rendering its impact even greater. Proponents of qualitative Bayesianism make a series of strong claims about its contributions and scope of inferential validity. Four claims stand out: (1) it enables causal inference from iterative research, (2) the sequence in which we evaluate evidence is irrelevant to inference, (3) it enables scholars to fully engage rival explanations, and (4) it prevents ad hoc hypothesizing and confirmation bias. Notwithstanding the stakes of these claims and breadth of traction this method has received, no one has systematically evaluated the promises, trade-offs, and limitations that accompany Bayesian process tracing. This article evaluates the extent to which the method lives up to the mission. Despite offering a useful framework for conducting iterative research, the current state of the method introduces more bias than it corrects for on numerous dimensions. The article concludes with an examination of the opportunity costs of learning Bayesian process tracing and a set of recommendations about how to push the field forward.

Making DA-RT a Reality

2013 ◽  
Vol 47 (01) ◽  
pp. 72-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Carsey
Keyword(s):  
National Science Foundation ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Data Access ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
Funding Agencies ◽  
National Science ◽  
Research Transparency ◽  
New Guidelines ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
Science Association

Calls for greater data access and research transparency have emerged on many fronts within professional social science. For example, the American Political Science Association (APSA) recently adopted new guidelines for data access and research transparency. APSA has also appointed the Data Access and Research Transparency (DA-RT) ad hoc committee to continue exploring these issues. DA-RT sponsored this symposium. In addition, funding agencies like the National Institutes for Health (NIH) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) have expanded requirements for data management and data distribution. These pressures present challenges to researchers, but they also present opportunities.

scholarly journals Archiving and Re-using of Qualitative Data as a Path to Development of Public Administration Research

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-160
Author(s):  
Joanna Gajda
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
New Public Management ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
Data Archiving ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
Science Association

 In response to the assumptions of new public management models and public or good governance, practical aspects of research in the area of public admin­istration and the development possibilities of qualitative research methods are presented in the article. Due to the fact that qualitative research has become increasingly popular in the above disciplines, data archiving and trans­parency is discussed (Moravcsik), (Yom et al.) and guidelines and principles are established (American Political Science Association). However, there is a lot of controversy among scholars (Monroe), and some examples are missing. This paper presents the challenge of ‘openness’ in the empirical activities (or empirical practice) of researchers. Its purpose is to present the archiving data potential from in-depth interviews on the example of a small set of qualitative data from research in the field of public administration. Firstly, the basic assumptions of new models of functioning of public administration and related consequences for researchers are described. In the second part, the challenges related to openness in contemporary public administration models are briefly mentioned. Next, the method of creating an archive from existing data, individual stages, documents, and data is outlined; it is based on the au­thor’s best practice on Qualidata (American Political Science Association; Van den Eynden et al.) and DA-RT principles.1 The summary includes examples of probable opportunities and challenges related to usage of data archiving for the research in public administration and political science development.

The 1970 APSA Elections

1971 ◽  
Vol 4 (03) ◽  
pp. 349-358
Author(s):  
Charles L. Taylor ◽  
Gordon Tullock
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Vice President ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
Vice Presidents ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
President Elect ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
New Political Science ◽  
Science Association

The annual election for officers and members of the Council of the American Political Science Association took place between November 2 and 23, 1970, with results reported in the Winter, 1971, issue of this journal. Voting was for one President-elect, three Vice Presidents, one Secretary, one Treasurer and eight members of the Council. There were two candidates each for President-elect, Secretary and Treasurer, five for Vice President and sixteen for Council. These candidates were nominated and supported by a variety of groups and three of these groups—The American Political Science Association nominating committee, the Ad Hoc Committee and the Caucus for a New Political Science—fielded complete or virtually complete slates.This report is an analysis of some of the patterns in the voting. We have worked with constraints, however. Since we received only ballots for the candidates, we were unable to analyze voting on constitutional amendments and resolutions or to look at candidate voting patterns in conjunction with voting patterns on issues. Secondly, there was the limitation inherent in any secret ballot; it was not possible directly to relate voting patterns to attributes of the voters. Thirdly, we did not receive the ballots until early April, 1971. Carding and analyzing them took so much time that we were not able to do all that we had planned. Thus this article is a great deal less comprehensive than we would have liked.

The 1971 APSA Elections

1972 ◽  
Vol 5 (03) ◽  
pp. 278-291
Author(s):  
Bernard Grofman
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
The Third ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
New Political Science ◽  
Science Association

For the third consecutive year there was a contest for offices of the American Political Science Association. The 1971 APSA election saw two groups fielding complete slates: the APSA nominating committee, and the Caucus for a New Political Science (overlapping in one Council nominee, Christian Bay) and two groups nominating or endorsing candidates, the Ad Hoc Committee and the Women's Caucus. The Ad Hoc Committee endorsements coincided with the nominations of the APSA nominating committee, while the ten Women's Caucus endorsements went to seven nominees endorsed by the New Caucus (three of whom were women) and four nominees of the APSA Nominating Committee (two of whom were women), the overlap being Christian Bay. (See Table 1).The 1971 Election had much in common with its predecessors. The principal differences shown in Table 2 are a continuing decline in voter turnout, a slow but continuing increase in the number of women candidates, and the entry of the Women's Caucus into the electoral lists.

Report on a Survey of the Membership of the American Political Science Association

1974 ◽  
Vol 7 (04) ◽  
pp. 382-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Mann
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Executive Director ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
Full Time ◽  
National Office ◽  
Final Questionnaire ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Science Association

In conjunction with a discussion of the FY 1974–75 Budget at its April, 1974, meeting, the Council of the American Political Science Association instructed the Executive Director to survey the membership of the Association as to their attitudes toward the usefulness ofPSin form and content. In order to take full advantage of the resources needed to conduct this survey, the National Office conceived a broader study of membership attitudes toward Association activities. The final questionnaire was approved by the Council.On June 7, 1974, the questionnaire was mailed to 1,000 individuals selected randomly from the membership files of the Association. A second mailing was sent to those who had not responded on July 9. A total of 530 completed questionnaires were received for a response rate of 53 percent.The demographic characteristics of the membership, as reflected in the sample, are portrayed in Table 1.The small number of students in the sample is surprising, given the fact that a third of all Association members pay student dues. This discrepancy cannot be attributed to differential response rates; a check of our numbering system confirms the fact that “student” members returned their questionnaires at the same rate as “annual” members. Clearly, a substantial number of individuals paying student dues are employed full-time.

The Political Scientist Decides: An Examination of the 1969 APSA Ballot

1970 ◽  
Vol 3 (03) ◽  
pp. 311-320
Author(s):  
John E. Mueller
Keyword(s):  
Annual Meeting ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
American Political Science Association ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Scientist ◽  
Alphabetical Order ◽  
American Political Science ◽  
First Time ◽  
Vote Result ◽  
Science Association

I always vote for the man, not the party.–Trad.In its election for offices in 1969, the American Political Science Association, apparently for the first time in its rarely turbulent history, found the nominees of its Official Nominating Committee challenged by an insurgent group. In order to handle this unprecedented situation, it was decided at the annual meeting to carry out the election by mail ballot and the American Arbitration Association was engaged to administer the operation.Ballots were mailed to the 13,061 members of the Association in October, 1969. Accompanying them were materials containing statements of belief and biographies for each of the candidates. The response rate was 64 percent.The ballots carried the contestants indicated in Table 1. For each office the candidates are listed in the Table in the order of their vote result (they were listed in alphabetical order on the ballot) and for each candidate the group endorsements, as they were presented on the ballot, are indicated. Except for the group endorsements, no identifying information accompanied the names of the candidates on the ballots.

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