scholarly journals Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Russell Kaufman ◽  
Peter Kraft ◽  
Maya Sen
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
County Level ◽  
Prediction Problem ◽  
Boosted Decision Trees ◽  
Supreme Court Rulings

Though used frequently in machine learning, boosted decision trees are largely unused in political science, despite many useful properties. We explain how to use one variant of boosted decision trees, AdaBoosted decision trees (ADTs), for social science predictions. We illustrate their use by examining a well-known political prediction problem, predicting U.S. Supreme Court rulings. We find that our ADT approach outperforms existing predictive models. We also provide two additional examples of the approach, one predicting the onset of civil wars and the other predicting county-level vote shares in U.S. presidential elections.

scholarly journals On the Computational Intelligibility of Boolean Classifiers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Audemard ◽  
Steve Bellart ◽  
Louenas Bounia ◽  
Frédéric Koriche ◽  
Jean-Marie Lagniez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Trees ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Neural Nets ◽  
The Other ◽  
Multilayer Perceptrons ◽  
Decision Lists ◽  
Boosted Decision Trees ◽  
The One ◽  
Boolean Classifiers

In this paper, we investigate the computational intelligibility of Boolean classifiers, characterized by their ability to answer XAI queries in polynomial time. The classifiers under consideration are decision trees, DNF formulae, decision lists, decision rules, tree ensembles, and Boolean neural nets. Using 9 XAI queries, including both explanation queries and verification queries, we show the existence of large intelligibility gap between the families of classifiers. On the one hand, all the 9 XAI queries are tractable for decision trees. On the other hand, none of them is tractable for DNF formulae, decision lists, random forests, boosted decision trees, Boolean multilayer perceptrons, and binarized neural networks.

Political Advertising and Persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections

2010 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael M. Franz ◽  
Travis N. Ridout
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Public Funding ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Political Advertising ◽  
The Other ◽  
County Level ◽  
Major Party ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
The Impact

The 2008 presidential election was historic in many respects. The campaign included the first African American major-party candidate, and neither candidate was an incumbent president or vice president. In addition, one candidate took public funding and the other candidate did not. This latter disparity resulted in an imbalance of resources across the two campaigns, especially in the purchase of political advertising. But did that imbalance matter for who won? Did advertising move voters, and if so, by how much? This article examines patterns of presidential ad buys in 2008 and compares them with presidential ad buys in 2004. It also examines the impact of advertising on county-level vote returns in both years. The results demonstrate some important differences in advertising patterns across years, especially in terms of ad sponsorship and market-level advertising advantages. We also find significant and strong advertising persuasion effects in 2008.

Supreme Court rulings on sexual harassment disputes

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanan Gwaltney Gibson ◽  
Heather Roberts-Fox
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Harassment ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Supreme Court Rulings

Birlikte Yaşama Kültürü Çerçevesinde Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye Politikaları: Suriyelilere Yönelik Tutumun Sultanbeyli Örneği Üzerinden Değerlendirilmesi

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-61
Author(s):  
Pelin Sönmez ◽  
Abulfaz Süleymanov
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Protection ◽  
Legal Structure ◽  
Turkish People

Türkiye, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en yoğun zorunlu göç dalgasını 2011 yılından bu yana süren Suriye Savaşı ile yaşamaktadır. Suriye vatandaşlarının geçici koruma statüsü altında Türkiye toplumuna her açıdan entegrasyonları günümüzün ve geleceğin politika öncelikleri arasında düşünülmelidir. Öte yandan ülkeye kabul edilen sığınmacıların kendi kültürel kimliğini kaybetmeden içinde yaşadığı ev sahibi topluma uyumu, ortak yaşam kültürünün gelişmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu makalede, "misafir" olarak kabul edilen Suriyeli vatandaşların Türk toplumunca kabul edilmeleri ve dışlanma risklerinin azaltılmasına yönelik devlet politikaları ortaya konularak, üye ve aday ülkelere göçmenlerin dışlanmasını önlemek için Avrupa Birliği (AB) tarafından sunulan hukuki yapı ve kamu hizmeti inisiyatifleri incelenmekte, birlikte yaşam kültürü çerçevesinde Suriyeli vatandaşlara yönelik  toplumsal kabul düzeyleri ele alınmaktadır. Çalışma iki ana bölümden oluşmaktadır: göçmen ve sığınmacılara karşı toplumsal dışlanmayı engellemek için benimsenen yasa ve uygulamaların etkisi ve İstanbul-Sultanbeyli bölgesinde Suriyeli sığınmacılarla ilgili toplumsal algı çalışmasının sonuçları. Bölgede ikamet eden Suriyelilere yönelik toplumsal kabul düzeyinin yüksek olduğu görülürken, halkın Suriyelileri kendilerine  kültürel ve dini olarak yakın hissetmesi toplumsal kabul düzeyini olumlu etkilemektedir. ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHAn evaluation of the European Union and Turkish policies regarding the culture of living togetherThis article aims to determine the level of social acceptance towards Syrians within the context of cohabitation culture by evaluating EU’s legal structure and public service initiatives in order to prevent Syrian refugees from being excluded in member and candidate countries and by revealing government policies on acceptance of Syrians as “guest” by Turkish society and minimizing the exclusion risks of them. This article consists of two main parts, one of which is based on the effects of law and practices preventing refugees and asylum seekers from social exclusion, and the other is on the results of social perception on Syrians in Sultanbeyli district of Istanbul. At the end of 5-years taking in Syrian War, it is obvious that most of more than 3 million Syrian with unregistered ones in Turkey are “here to stay”. From this point of view, the primary scope of policies should be specified in order to remove side effects of refugee phenomenon seen as weighty matter by bottoming out the exclusion towards those people. To avoid possible large-scale conflicts or civil wars in the future, the struggle with exclusion phenomenon plays a crucial role regarding Turkey’s sociological situation and developing policies. In the meaning of forming a model for Turkey, a subtitle in this article is about public services for European-wide legal acquis and practices carried out since 1970s in order to prevent any exclusion from the society. On the other hand, other subtitles are about legal infrastructure and practices like Common European Asylum and Immigration Policies presented in 2005, and Law on Foreigners and International Protection introduced in 2013. In the last part of the article, the results of a field survey carried out in a district of Istanbul were used to analyze the exclusion towards refugees in Turkey. A face-to-face survey was randomly conducted with 200 settled refugees in Sultanbeyli district of Istanbul, and their perceptions towards Syrian people under temporary protection were evaluated. According to the results, the level of acceptance for Syrians living in this district seems relatively high. The fact that Turkish people living in the same district feel close to Syrian refugees culturally and religiously affect their perception in a positive way: however, it is strikingly seen and understood that local residents cop an attitude on the refugees’ becoming Turkish citizens.

ASAS TERBUKA UNTUK UMUM DAN KEHADIRAN FISIK PARA PIHAK DALAM SIDANG DI PENGADILAN NEGERI PASCA PERATURAN MAHKAMAH AGUNG NOMOR 1 TAHUN 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 237-250
Author(s):  
Bernadette M Waluyo
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Basic Principle ◽  
Civil Law ◽  
The Other ◽  
District Court ◽  
Procedural Law ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Administration Of Justice ◽  
Law Courts ◽  
Court Proceedings

The Indonesian Supreme Court, in response to the information era, modernizes the civil procedural rules at the district court level.  This is done by issuing Supreme Court Regulation no. 1 of 2019 re. Administration of Justice at Civil Law Courts and Electronic-Court Proceedings. Undoubtedly, modernization of existing rules on the administration of justice is much needed.  On the other hand, these changes may violate a number of procedural civil law principles.  The author argues, from a civil procedural law perspective, that the above Supreme Court regulation violates the basic principle of transparency of court proceedings and physical attendance at court proceedings. 

A Note on Mandela v Executors, Estate Nelson Mandela 2018 (4) SA 86 (SCA) and the Conundrum around the Customary Marriage between Nelson and Winnie Mandela

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sipho Stephen Nkosi
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
The State ◽  
The Other ◽  
Customary Law ◽  
Eastern Cape ◽  
High Court ◽  
Nelson Mandela ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Court Of Appeal

The note is about the appeal lodged by the late Mrs Winnie Madikizela-Mandela to the SCA against the decision of the Eastern Cape High Court, Mthatha, dismissing her application for review in 2014. In that application, she sought to have reviewed the decision of the Minister of Land Affairs, to transfer the now extended and renovated Qunu property to Mr Mandela and to register it in his name. Because her application was out of time, she also applied for condonation of her delay in making the application. The court a quo dismissed both applications with costs, holding that there had been an undue delay on her part. Mrs Mandela then approached the Supreme Court of Appeal, for special leave to appeal the decision of the court a quo. Two questions fell for decision by the SCA: whether there was an unreasonable and undue delay on Mrs Mandela’s part in instituting review proceedings; and whether the order for costs was appropriate in the circumstances of the case. The SCA held that there was indeed an unreasonable delay (of seventeen years). Shongwe AP (with Swain, Mathopo JJA, Mokgothloa and Rodgers AJJA concurring) held that the fact that there had been an undue delay does not necessarily mean that an order for costs should, of necessity, particularly where, as in this case, the other litigant is the state. It is the writer’s view that two other ancillary points needed to be raised by counsel and pronounced on by the Court: (a) the lawfulness and regularity of the transfer of the Qunu property to Mr Mandela; and (b) Mrs Mandela’s status as a customary-law widow—in relation to Mr Mandela.

O ENSINO RELIGIOSO EM QUESTÃO

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
pp. 459
Author(s):  
Mauro Rocha Baptista
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Religious Education ◽  
Common Core ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
National Curriculum ◽  
The Other ◽  
Federal Constitution ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Common

Neste artigo analisamos a relação do Ensino Religioso com a sua evolução ao longo do contexto recente do Brasil para compreender a posição do Supremo Tribunal Federal ao considerar a possibilidade do Ensino Religioso confessional. Inicialmente apresentaremos a perspectiva legislativa criada com a constituição de 1988 e seus desdobramentos nas indicações curriculares. Neste contexto é frisado a intenção de incluir o Ensino Religioso na Base Nacional Curricular Comum, o que acabou não acontecendo. A tendência manifesta nas duas primeiras versões da BNCC era de um Ensino Religioso não-confessional. Uma tendência que demarcava a função do Ensino Religioso em debater a religião, mas que não permitia o direcionamento por uma vertente religioso qualquer. Esta posição se mostrava uma evolução da primeira perspectiva histórica mais associada à catequese confessional. Assim como também ultrapassava a interpretação posterior de um ecumenismo interconfessional, que mantinha a superioridade do cristianismo ante as demais religiões. Sendo assim, neste artigo, adotaremos o argumento de que a decisão do STF, de seis votos contra cinco, acaba retrocedendo ante o que nos parecia um caminho muito mais frutífero.Palavras-chave: Ensino Religioso. Supremo Tribunal Federal. Confessional. Interconfessional. Não-confessional.Abstract: On this article, we analyze the relation between Religious education and its evolution along the currently Brazilian context in order to understand the position of the Supreme Court in considering the possibility of a confessional Religious education. Firstly, we are going to present the legislative perspective created with the 1988 Federal Constitution and its impacts in the curricular lines. On this context it was highlighted the intention to include the Religious Education on the Common Core National Curriculum (CCNC), which did not really happened. The tendency manifested in the first two versions of the CCNC was of a non-confessional Religious Education. A tendency that delineated the function of the Religious Education as debating religion, but not giving direction on any religious side. This position was an evolution of the first historical perspective more associated to the confessional catechesis. It also went beyond the former interpretation of an inter-confessional ecumenism, which kept the superiority of the Christianity over the other religions. As such, in this paper we adopt the argument that the decision of the Supreme Court, of six votes against five, is a reversal of what seemed to be a much more productive path on the Religious Education.Keywords: Religious Education. Brazilian Supreme Court. Confessional. Inter-confessional. Non- confessional.Enviado: 23-01-2018 - Aprovado e publicado: 12-2018

The Abbatial Election at Citeaux in 1625

1970 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-35
Author(s):  
Louis J. Lekai
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The Other ◽  
Total Destruction ◽  
General Decline ◽  
History Of

The sixteenth century was a crucial period in the history of French monasticism. In addition to the causes of a general decline throughout Europe, in France two peculiar developments precipitated a nearly fatal collapse of monastic establishments. One was the commendatory system that spread over the whole country following the Concordat of Bologna in 1516. Royally appointed commendatory abbots, whose only concern was the collection of their share of monastic income, contributed much to the moral and material decline of the institutions supposedly under their care. The other and even more devastating calamity was the series of religious and civil wars during the second half of the century that resulted in the pillage and partial or total destruction of hundreds of monasteries.

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