The prescient power of indifference

2019 ◽  
Vol 103 (556) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
Leonard M. Wapner
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate ◽  
Coin Toss ◽  
Mathematical Probability ◽  
Principle Of Indifference ◽  
Mathematical Argument ◽  
Lack Of Information

Many a secret that cannot be pried out by curiosity can be drawn out by indifference.Sidney J. HarrisLack of information is generally considered a hindrance to inquiry. Surprisingly, a simple mathematical argument, relying on the Principle of Indifference, shows there are situations where the opposite holds. Even more surprisingly, this indifference allows one to guess, with a success rate greater than 50%, the outcome of a coin toss or any other experiment having two equiprobable outcomes. The scheme is based on work by American statistician David Blackwell (1919–2010) and a principle of mathematical probability attributed to Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli (1655–1705).

Theories of Probability

1950 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 229-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. Aitken
Keyword(s):  
Relative Frequency ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Symbolic Algebra ◽  
Inverse Probability ◽  
Uncertain Inference ◽  
Mathematical Probability ◽  
Classical Formulation ◽  
Principle Of Indifference ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
Von Mises

SynopsisVarious definitions of mathematical probability are described and commented upon: (i) the classical formulation, based on the ratio of favourable to total “equally likely” aspects of a system; (ii) formulations based on relative frequency in a sequence of trials, or on the limit of relative frequency as the number of trials is increased indefinitely; (iii) von Mises' refinement of this, in which the sequences obey special postulates ensuring “randomness”; (iv) modern revisions of the classical definition, “equally likely” aspects being replaced by an aggregate, and ratio of aspects by relative measure of a sub-aggregate; (v) the approach of Keynes, in which probability is the “logic of uncertain inference,” developed by a symbolic algebra; (vi) the approach of Jeffreys, by axioms and conventions of procedure, based on the principle of indifference and the use of the rule of inverse probability. It is suggested that, whereas in formulations based on relative frequency, frequency cannot be held to afford any explanation of the facts of frequency, in the a priori formulations, on the other hand, any postulates put forward are still very far from explaining to inquiring minds the commonly observed phenomena of so-called chance. It is further suggested that in actuarial applications the nexus between axioms of probability and causes of mortality is especially obscure, with consequent need of caution in adopting and interpreting the more refined modern methods.

The Imaging of Crystal Structures and Crystal Defects

1978 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-217
Author(s):  
J.M. Cowley
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscope ◽  
Crystal Structures ◽  
Phase Contrast ◽  
Crystal Defects ◽  
Atom Density ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Spatial Frequencies

The problem of "understandinq" electron microscope imaqes becomes more acute as the resolution is improved. The naive interpretation of an imaqe as representinq the projection of an atom density becomes less and less appropriate. We are increasinqly forced to face the complexities of coherent imaqinq of what are essentially phase objects. Most electron microscopists are now aware that, for very thin weakly scatterinq objects such as thin unstained bioloqical specimens, hiqh resolution imaqes are best obtained near the optimum defocus, as prescribed by Scherzer, where the phase contrast imaqe qives a qood representation of the projected potential, apart from a lack of information on the lower spatial frequencies. But phase contrast imaqinq is never simple except in idealized limitinq cases.

Toward an alignment of the actin molecule within the actin filament

1983 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 450-451
Author(s):  
P.R. Smith ◽  
W.E. Fowler ◽  
U. Aebi
Keyword(s):  
Actin Filament ◽  
Diffraction Data ◽  
Quantitative Estimate ◽  
Molecular Model ◽  
Quantitative Comparison ◽  
Regulatory Proteins ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Maximum Resolution ◽  
Lack Of Information

An understanding of the specific interactions of actin with regulatory proteins has been limited by the lack of information about the structure of the actin filament. Molecular actin has been studied in actin-DNase I complexes by single crystal X-ray analysis, to a resolution of about 0.6nm, and in the electron microscope where two dimensional actin sheets have been reconstructed to a maximum resolution of 1.5nm. While these studies have shown something of the structure of individual actin molecules, essential information about the orientation of actin in the filament is still unavailable.The work of Egelman & DeRosier has, however, suggested a method which could be used to provide an initial quantitative estimate of the orientation of actin within the filament. This method involves the quantitative comparison of computed diffraction data from single actin filaments with diffraction data derived from synthetic filaments constructed using the molecular model of actin as a building block. Their preliminary work was conducted using a model consisting of two juxtaposed spheres of equal size.

The innervation of toad lymph hearts: An ultrastructural study

1992 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 898-899
Author(s):  
A.M. Pucci ◽  
C. Fruschelli ◽  
A. Rebuffat ◽  
M. Guarna ◽  
C. Alessandrini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ultrastructural Study ◽  
Neuromuscular Junctions ◽  
Nerve Fibers ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Lymph Heart ◽  
Muscular Pump ◽  
Structure And Ultrastructure ◽  
Heart Wall

Amphibians have paired muscular pump organs, called “lymph heart”, which rhythmically pump back the lymph from the large subcutaneous lymph sacs into the veins. The structure and ultrastructure of these organs is well known but to date there is a lack of information about the innervation of lymph hearts. Therefore has been carried out an ultrastructural study in order to study the distribution of the nerve fibers, and the morphology of the neuromuscular junctions in the lymph heart wall.

1335: Is there an Inherent Ceiling on the Success Rate of Slings?

2007 ◽  
Vol 177 (4S) ◽  
pp. 440-440
Author(s):  
Kathleen C. Kobashi ◽  
Fred E. Govier ◽  
Tanya M. Nazemi
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate

24: Endopyelotomy for Ureteropelvic Junction Obstruction: What Success Rate can the Patient Expect?

2004 ◽  
Vol 171 (4S) ◽  
pp. 7-7
Author(s):  
Hansjoerg Danuser ◽  
Eduard Dobry ◽  
Fiona C. Burkhard ◽  
Werner W. Hochreiter ◽  
Urs E. Studer
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate ◽  
Ureteropelvic Junction Obstruction ◽  
Ureteropelvic Junction

Klinische Langzeitergebnisse der perkutanen transluminalen Angioplastie bei Patienten mit peripherer arterieller Verschlusskrankheit

VASA ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
. Bucek ◽  
Hudak ◽  
Schnürer ◽  
Ahmadi ◽  
Wolfram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Success Rate ◽  
Clinical Stage ◽  
Ankle Brachial Index ◽  
Clinical Situation ◽  
Clinical Results ◽  
Transluminal Angioplasty ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome

Background: We investigated the long-term clinical results of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) in patients with peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) and the influence of different parameters on the primary success rate, the rate of complications and the long-term outcome. Patients and methods: We reviewed clinical and hemodynamic follow-up data of 166 consecutive patients treated with PTA in 1987 in our department. Results: PTA improved the clinical situation in 79.4% of patients with iliac lesions and in 88.3% of patients with femoro-popliteal lesions. The clinical stage and ankle brachial index (ABI) post-interventional could be improved significantly (each P < 0,001), the same results were observed at the end of follow-up (each P < 0,001). Major complications occurred in 11 patients (6.6%). The rate of primary clinical long-term success for suprainguinal lesions was 55% and 38% after 5 and 10 years (femoro-popliteal 44% and 33%), respectively, the corresponding data for secondary clinical long-term success were 63% and 56% (60% and 55%). Older age (P = 0,017) and lower ABI pre-interventional (P = 0,019) significantly deteriorated primary clinical long-term success for suprainguinal lesions, while no factor could be identified influencing the outcome of femoro-popliteal lesions significantly. Conclusion: Besides an acceptable success rate with a low rate of severe complications, our results demonstrate favourable long-term clinical results of PTA in patients with PAOD.

Bipolar radiofrequency induced thermotherapy and 1064 nm Nd:Yag laser in endovenous occlusion of insufficient veins: short term follow up results

VASA ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krnic ◽  
Sucic
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Nd:Yag Laser ◽  
Main Stem ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Main Trunk ◽  
Bipolar Radiofrequency ◽  
Saphenous Veins ◽  
Skin Redness ◽  
Complete Failure

Background: The aim of this study is to report our results in main stem vein closure using the bipolar radiofrequency induced thermotherapy (RFITT) system and the 1064nm Nd:Yag laser. Patients and methods: 44 incompetent main stem veins (37 great saphenous veins, one lesser saphenous vein, and 6 anterior accessory saphenous veins) in 29 patients were treated using RFITT. 53 incompetent main stem veins (45 great saphenous veins, 4 lesser saphenous veins, and 4 anterior accessory saphenous veins) in 43 patients were treated endovenously with 1064 nm Nd:Yag laser. All patients underwent postoperative duplex scanning within a month after procedure, as well as a short interview regarding postoperative discomfort. Results: In main stem veins treated with RFITT, the success rate within the first month was 86,4 % (38 out of 44 veins). Complete failure rate was 13,6 % (6 out of 44 veins). In 53 main stem veins treated by 1064 nm Nd:Yag laser, the success rate was 100 %, consisting of 98,1 % complete success (52/53 veins), and 1,9 % partial success (1/53 veins). None of the patients treated with RFITT experienced postoperative adverse effects, whereas 13/43 (30,2 %) patients treated with laser had to use oral analgesics after the treatment, and 21/43 (48,8 %) patients reported transient skin changes, such as bruising or skin redness. Conclusions: RFITT system was fairly efficient in the short term for closure of main trunk veins, whereas longer term results are still scarce. Postoperative side effects of RFITT were minimal. 1064nm Nd:Yag laser, according to short term results, proved to be very effective for main stem vein closure. Postoperative side effects related to 1064 nm Nd:Yag endovenous laser treatment proved to be minor, transient, and acceptable.

Early Identification of Youth at Risk for Suicidal Behavior

Crisis ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 326-332
Author(s):  
Ivonne Andrea Florez ◽  
Devon LoParo ◽  
Nakia Valentine ◽  
Dorian A. Lamis
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Early Identification ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Psychiatric Symptoms ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Health Centers ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Youth At Risk ◽  
Logistic Regressions ◽  
Lethal Means

Abstract. Background: Early identification and appropriate referral services are priorities to prevent suicide. Aims: The aim of this study was to describe patterns of identification and referrals among three behavioral health centers and determine whether youth demographic factors and type of training received by providers were associated with identification and referral patterns. Method: The Early Identification Referral Forms were used to gather the data of interest among 820 youth aged 10–24 years who were screened for suicide risk (females = 53.8%). Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regressions were conducted to examine significant associations. Results: Significant associations between gender, race, and age and screening positive for suicide were found. Age and race were significantly associated with different patterns of referrals and/or services received by youths. For providers, being trained in Counseling on Access to Lethal Means was positively associated with number of referrals to inpatient services. Limitations: The correlational nature of the study and lack of information about suicide risk and comorbidity of psychiatric symptoms limit the implications of the findings. Conclusion: The results highlight the importance of considering demographic factors when identifying and referring youth at risk to ensure standard yet culturally appropriate procedures to prevent suicide.

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