The probable and the nonarbitrary: evidential foundations for a finding of guilt

Legal Studies ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Liat Levanon
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Moral Judgement ◽  
Criminal Trials ◽  
Criminal Conviction ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
Statistical Assumptions ◽  
Factual Proposition

Abstract The paper explores the use of statistical data and statistical assumptions as evidence in criminal trials. It is suggested that a finding of guilt includes not only its main factual proposition but also additional propositions that support and affirm it. Specifically, it includes not only the proposition that the defendant committed the offence but also the additional affirming proposition that it is this defendant rather than any other potential defendant who committed the offence (the ‘D rather than A’ proposition). Some statistical generalisations provide reasons in defence of the main proposition but not in defence of the affirming proposition, which then remains random or arbitrary. Yet since criminal convictions include a moral judgement, they cannot be justified where some of their propositions are arbitrary. Accordingly, such statistical generalisations cannot justify a criminal conviction.

scholarly journals Criminal Convictions in Norwegian Female and Male Adult ADHD Outpatients: Prevalence and Associations With ADHD Symptom Severity and Emotional Dysregulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Espen ANKER ◽  
Ylva Ginsberg ◽  
Trond Heir
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Severity ◽  
Adult Adhd ◽  
Clinical Sample ◽  
Antisocial Behaviour ◽  
Emotional Dysregulation ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Male Adult ◽  
Criminal Conviction ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
History Of

Abstract ObjectivesAttention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) often co-occurs with antisocial behaviour. Several studies have shown high rates of ADHD among prisoners. However, the prevalence of crime among individuals with ADHD is less known. The aim of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of lifetime criminal conviction (CC) in a clinical sample of adults with ADHD, and the associations with severity of ADHD and emotional dysregulation (ED). MethodsPatients were admitted to a private psychiatric outpatient clinic in Oslo between 2014 and 2018. Out of 656 patients diagnosed with ADHD, 629 (95.9%) agreed to participate in the study. CC was determined based on self-reporting of the lifetime history of criminal behaviour. ADHD was diagnosed according to DSM-5 criteria, and the ADHD severity was measured using the Adult ADHD Self Report Scale (ASRS). ED was assessed by the eight-item version of Barkley’s Current Behaviour Scale - Self Report (CBS-SR). ResultsThe prevalence of self-reported CC in this clinical sample was 11.7% among women and 24.5% among men. CC was associated with hyperactive-impulsive severity (p<0.001) and ED (p=0.006).ConclusionsThe prevalence of self-reported lifetime criminal conviction was high for both genders. CC was associated with symptom severity of hyperactivity-impulsivity and emotional dysregulation.

scholarly journals Is maternal smoking during pregnancy a causal environmental risk factor for adolescent antisocial behavior? Testing etiological theories and assumptions

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (7) ◽  
pp. 1535-1545 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. M. D'Onofrio ◽  
C. A. Van Hulle ◽  
J. A. Goodnight ◽  
P. J. Rathouz ◽  
B. B. Lahey
Keyword(s):  
Antisocial Behavior ◽  
Maternal Smoking ◽  
Environmental Influence ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Criminal Conviction ◽  
Smoking During Pregnancy ◽  
Familial Factors ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
Maternal Smoking During Pregnancy

BackgroundAlthough many studies indicate that maternal smoking during pregnancy (SDP) is correlated with later offspring antisocial behavior (ASB), recent quasi-experimental studies suggest that background familial factors confound the association. The present study sought to test alternative etiological hypotheses using multiple indices of adolescent ASB, comparing differentially exposed siblings, and testing assumptions in the sibling-comparison design.MethodThe study examined the association between maternal SDP and adolescent-reported ASB, criminal convictions and membership in a group of individuals with early-starting and chronic ASB among 6066 offspring of women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a representative sample of women in the USA. The analyses controlled for statistical covariates and examined associations while comparing differentially exposed siblings.ResultsAt the population level, each additional pack of cigarettes per day predicted greater mean adolescent-reported ASB symptoms [ratio of means 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.22], odds of being in the top 10% of ASB [odds ratio (OR) 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.65], hazard of a criminal conviction [hazard ratio (HR) 1.51, 95% CI 1.34–1.68] and odds of chronic ASB (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.25–1.99). SDP robustly predicted most assessments of ASB while controlling for measured covariates. When siblings exposed to differing levels of SDP were compared, however, all of the associations were attenuated and were not statistically significant: adolescent-reported mean ASB (ratio of means 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–1.01), high ASB (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.41–1.12), criminal conviction (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.66–1.44) and chronic ASB (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.46–1.38).ConclusionsThe results strongly suggest that familial factors account for the correlation between SDP and offspring adolescent ASB, rather than a putative causal environmental influence of SDP.

scholarly journals Prevalence of criminal convictions in Norwegian adult ADHD outpatients and associations with ADHD symptom severity and emotional dysregulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Espen Anker ◽  
Ylva Ginsberg ◽  
Trond Heir
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Severity ◽  
Adult Adhd ◽  
Clinical Sample ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Antisocial Behaviour ◽  
Emotional Dysregulation ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Criminal Conviction ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
Adhd Treatment

Abstract Objectives Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often co-occurs with antisocial behaviour. Several studies have shown high rates of ADHD among prisoners. However, the prevalence of crime among individuals with ADHD is less known. The aim of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of lifetime criminal conviction (CC) in a clinical sample of adults with ADHD, and the associations with the severity of ADHD and emotional dysregulation (ED). Methods Patients were admitted to a private psychiatric outpatient clinic in Oslo between 2014 and 2018. Of the 656 patients diagnosed with ADHD, 629 (95.9%) agreed to participate in the study. CC was determined based on self-reporting of the lifetime history of criminal behaviour. ADHD was diagnosed according to the DSM-5 criteria, and ADHD severity was measured using the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS). ED was assessed by the eight-item version of Barkley’s Current Behaviour Scale - Self-Report (CBS-SR). Results The prevalence of self-reported CC in this clinical sample was 11.7% among women and 24.5% among men. CC was associated with hyperactive-impulsive severity (p < 0.001) and ED (p = 0.006). Conclusions The prevalence of self-reported lifetime criminal conviction was high for both genders. CC was associated with symptom severity of hyperactivity-impulsivity and emotional dysregulation. The findings suggest the need for greater research efforts on the avoidance of criminal activity in people with ADHD and targeted intervention for ADHD treatment and CC prevention.

Criminal conviction after discharge from special (high security) hospital

1998 ◽  
Vol 172 (6) ◽  
pp. 472-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alec Buchanan
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Outcome Measure ◽  
Criminal Conviction ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Violent Offence ◽  
Actuarial Methods ◽  
Cohort Study Design ◽  
Special Hospital ◽  
Special Hospitals

BackgroundThe aim was to measure the criminal convictions received by people who leave special hospital and to test previously identified correlates of conviction.MethodA cohort study design was used and the subjects were all 425 patients discharged from the special hospitals in 1982 and 1983. The outcome measure was a criminal conviction received within 10.5 years of discharge.ResultsFive and a half years after discharge 26% of ex-patients had been convicted of any offence, 9% of a violent offence, 5% of a sex offence and 10% of any serious offence. Ten and a half years after discharge 34% of patients had been convicted of any offence, 15% of a violent offence, 7.5% of a sex offence and 15% of any serious offence. When other variables are controlled for, gender and destination on discharge do not predict conviction. Age, a legal category of psychopathic disorder and prior criminal record do predict, but the effect is small.ConclusionThe rate of conviction of patients leaving special hospital has fallen over the past 20 years; this is the case for crime in general and for serious crimes in particular. The change in rates of conviction over time for patients of different legal categories, previously thought to be different, is the same. The low predictive power of the variables examined here suggests that actuarial methods are of limited value in predicting offending in this group.

scholarly journals Predicting Danger in Immigration Courts

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Ryo
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Audio Recording ◽  
Central Americans ◽  
Criminal Conviction ◽  
Criminal Convictions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Legal Construction

Every year, the US government detains thousands of noncitizens in removal proceedings on the basis that they might pose a threat to public safety if released during the pendency of their removal proceedings. Using original audio recording data on immigration bond hearings, this study examines immigration judges’ determinations regarding which noncitizens pose a danger to the community. My multivariate analysis that controls for a variety of detainee background characteristics and criminal-conviction-related measures produced three main findings. First, I find that Central Americans are more likely to be deemed dangerous than non-Central Americans. Second, I find that detainees with attorneys are less likely to be deemed dangerous than pro se detainees. Finally, my analysis shows that whereas felony and violent convictions are associated with higher odds of being deemed dangerous, the recency of criminal convictions and the total number of convictions are not predictive of danger determinations. Together, these findings provide new insights into the socio-legal construction of immigrant criminality.

Appraisal and Moral Judgement Measures

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascale Sophie Russell ◽  
Roger Giner-Sorolla
Keyword(s):  
Moral Judgement

Knowledge-Based Decision Support for Diagnosis and Therapy: On the Multiple Usability of Patient Data

1989 ◽  
Vol 28 (02) ◽  
pp. 69-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Haux
Keyword(s):  
Expert Systems ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Patient Data ◽  
Attribute Selection ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Statistical Data Analysis ◽  
Inference Mechanism ◽  
Diagnosis And Therapy ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Clinical Registries

Abstract:Expert systems in medicine are frequently restricted to assisting the physician to derive a patient-specific diagnosis and therapy proposal. In many cases, however, there is a clinical need to use these patient data for other purposes as well. The intention of this paper is to show how and to what extent patient data in expert systems can additionally be used to create clinical registries and for statistical data analysis. At first, the pitfalls of goal-oriented mechanisms for the multiple usability of data are shown by means of an example. Then a data acquisition and inference mechanism is proposed, which includes a procedure for controlling selection bias, the so-called knowledge-based attribute selection. The functional view and the architectural view of expert systems suitable for the multiple usability of patient data is outlined in general and then by means of an application example. Finally, the ideas presented are discussed and compared with related approaches.

Confidentiality of Statistical Records: A Threat-Monitoring Scheme for On Line Dialogue

1976 ◽  
Vol 15 (01) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Schlörer
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
High Ratio ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Monitoring Scheme ◽  
Access Controls ◽  
On Line ◽  
Bona Fide

From a statistical data bank containing only anonymous records, the records sometimes may be identified and then retrieved, as personal records, by on line dialogue. The risk mainly applies to statistical data sets representing populations, or samples with a high ratio n/N. On the other hand, access controls are unsatisfactory as a general means of protection for statistical data banks, which should be open to large user communities. A threat monitoring scheme is proposed, which will largely block the techniques for retrieval of complete records. If combined with additional measures (e.g., slight modifications of output), it may be expected to render, from a cost-benefit point of view, intrusion attempts by dialogue valueless, if not absolutely impossible. The bona fide user has to pay by some loss of information, but considerable flexibility in evaluation is retained. The proposal of controlled classification included in the scheme may also be useful for off line dialogue systems.

Russian Oil: Production and Exports

2003 ◽  
pp. 136-146
Author(s):  
K. Liuhto
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Oil Transportation ◽  
Sea Ports ◽  
The Baltic

Statistical data on reserves, production and exports of Russian oil are provided in the article. The author pays special attention to the expansion of opportunities of sea oil transportation by construction of new oil terminals in the North-West of the country and first of all the largest terminal in Murmansk. In his opinion, one of the main problems in this sphere is prevention of ecological accidents in the process of oil transportation through the Baltic sea ports.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document