To Intervene or Not to Intervene? Democratic Constraints on Third-Party Support in Civil Wars

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Casper Sakstrup ◽  
Jakob Tolstrup
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Institutional Characteristics ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Party Support

Abstract Do democracies and autocracies differ when it comes to whether and how they provide third-party support to warring parties in civil wars? We argue that the political institutions of potential third-party states have important consequences for both questions. We emphasize how three particular institutional characteristics of democratic polities constrain decision-makers. This makes democracies less likely than autocracies to intervene in intra-state conflicts in general, and less likely to provide combat-intensive support specifically. An empirical analysis of incidents of third-party support to actors in civil wars in the period 1975–2009 corroborates the overall argument, although the results regarding support types are less clear. These results have important implications not only for our understanding of civil wars but also for how foreign policy decisions are made across different regime contexts.

Foulweather Friends: Violence and Third Party Support in Self-Determination Conflicts

2021 ◽  
pp. 002200272199322
Author(s):  
R. Joseph Huddleston
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Latent Variable ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Major Powers ◽  
International Stability ◽  
General Preference ◽  
Party Support

This paper investigates how violence in self-determination conflicts influences bilateral foreign policy. I argue that a general preference for international stability causes third parties to support self-determination groups when violence reaches high levels, when they gain territorial control, and when major powers officially recognize. In these conditions, third parties perceive a stable new status quo to be nigh: unrecognized statehood. Ongoing instability encourages foreign policy that encourages the development of the de facto state, even when third parties have no intention of recognizing them as states. Importantly, I also show that targeting civilians erodes third-party support of the perpetrating side. I demonstrate these relationships using a latent variable model of international sovereignty of aspiring states, built on bilateral military, diplomatic, and economic exchange data. My model and tests provide new insight into how aspiring state actors become increasingly eligible for recognition through the tacit support of third-party states.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Policy Analysts ◽  
Bay Of Pigs

This chapter describes widespread skepticism regarding the value of assessing uncertainty in international politics. “Agnostics” argue that assessments of uncertainty in international politics are too unreliable to be useful for shaping major foreign policy decisions. “Rejectionists” argue that attempting to assess uncertainty in international politics can be counterproductive, surrounding foreign policy analyses with illusions of rigor or exposing foreign policy analysts to excessive criticism. “Cynics” claim that foreign policy analysts and decision makers have self-interested motives to avoid assessing uncertainty. The chapter explains how these ideas lead many scholars, practitioners, and pundits to avoid holding careful debates about the risks surrounding major foreign policy choices. The chapter describes how this aversion to probabilistic reasoning appears in several high-profile cases, such as President Kennedy’s decision to authorize the Bay of Pigs invasion and President Obama’s decision to raid Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

scholarly journals Electoral Politics in Pakistan (Elections 2013): A Case Study of District Muzaffar Garh

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Fariha Khalid Khan ◽  
Razia Musarrat
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Third Party ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Awareness ◽  
Public Issues ◽  
Election Process ◽  
And Behavior

Elections make a fundamental contribution to democratic governance. In democracies political decisions are made directly by the citizens of the country. Elections serve as forum for the discussion of public issues and facilitate the expression of public opinion. Electoral politics is a figurative form of political participation. Success and failure of political institutions depends upon the political awareness of people and the process of electoral politics is the subject of free, fair and transparent elections. Like her counterparts Pakistan has election process defined by constitution. The electoral process in Pakistan was not regular and transparent but last three elections 2002, 2008 and 2013 were held according to the constitution.  In Pakistan elections and political process are dominated by the political personalities. Although there are multiparty system but people mostly preferred two main parties like PPP and PML-N but it is positive that third party PTI was emerged in country as third largest party of Pakistan. The study focuses on the 2013 elections and behavior of people of district Muzaffar Garh of Punjab. The purpose of this study is to observe the electoral politics at micro level in Pakistan.

II. Empire

1982 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 8-14
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Level Set ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Legal Basis

In the years following Actium, Augustus set out to secure for himself a monopoly of military power and glory, establish a legal basis for his control of the legions and direction of foreign policy, and build an army that could undertake a programme of continuous warfare. This last task was a considerable one; apart from the initial hurdle of paying off the thousands of weary and near-mutinous soldiers who had survived the civil wars, it was complicated by the political necessity of curtailing or materially reducing conscription in Italy. The army Augustus bequeathed to his successors was a body of professionals, serving for twenty-five years at the modest pay of 225 denarii a year (raised to 300 by Domitian) and with the prospect of a discharge payment of 3,000 denarii or the equivalent in land. The bulk of the legions, which were stationed in the Northern provinces, were made up of recruits – some conscripts, some volunteers – from the more Romanized West. Local and regional recruitment, for legionaries as well as auxiliaries, became the norm only after our period. The level set by Augustus of 28 legions, or about 168,000 men (plus roughly as many auxiliaries, recruited from non-citizens), was not raised significantly by later emperors.

scholarly journals The Role of Leaders in Formulation of the Foreign Policy Identity in Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 70-90
Author(s):  
I. E. Ibragimov
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
National Level ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Peace Treaty ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Modern Theory ◽  
Policy Decisions

The features of the formation of the of the state explains the high level of interest in this scientific problem in the modern theory of international relations. The study of for eign policy identity is capable of providing an understanding of the policy-making activity of the state and its positioning in the international arena. The process of forming a foreign policy identity linked to both objective and subjective factors. The objective factors should be classified as geographical, historical, cultural and religious, the key subjective factors can be considered the role of a leader. This factor is standard for Middle Eastern states, especially for Egypt, where there are traditions of strong centralized powers. Egyptian leaders have supreme power in foreign policy decisions within the framework of the political system. Egypt's foreign policy is often determined by the personal character traits of the country's leaders. This article aims to study the role of the head of the Egypt in the search for foreign policy identity in the context of an identity crisis at the national level. Egypt has a long history of authoritarian rule, because it is impossible to separate national identity from foreign policy identity. Since its independent existence, each period with its own context established a different framework of identity and worldview for decision-makers in the field of Egypt`s foreign policy. The predominance of various elements in ideological as well as worldview in the age of the rule of a particular president has led to noticeable differences in Egypt's foreign policy at the current stage. This article attempts to answer the following research questions: What place does of the institute of the heads of State in foreign policy decisions? How leader's influence does determine the foreign policy role of the state? What changes in foreign policy priorities have taken place during the analysis period? What are the reasons for the differences between the main periods of Egypt's foreign policy in goals, tools and approaches to the outside world? The author comes to the conclusion that the change of the political leader plays an important role in the transformations of Egypt's foreign policy. The article analyzes the main trends in the foreign policy self-perception of Egypt in order to confirm the hypothesis that the foreign policy identity of Egypt had not evolved a discontinuity even in the conditions of dramatic events, whether it is the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Peace treaty with Israel or the events of the Arab Spring.

Conclusion

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Cornwell
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Roman Imperialism ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Single Person ◽  
Pax Romana ◽  
The Stability

Peace had dominated the discourse on the nature of Roman imperialism as the political institutions of the state were questioned and debated during the civil wars of the 40s and 30s BC, to the slow reformulation of powers around the single person of Augustus. The evolution of an imperial conception of peace from the early stages of the representations of pax augusta during the slow birth of the new political structures to a fully fledged idea of the pax Romana comes to fruition in Vespasian’s templum Pacis by the mid-70s AD and illustrates the integral value and position that peace had gained in a Roman imperial vision. The accomplishment of pax represented not only the stability and security brought to the state in a post-civil war world, but also the control over an Empire that such a peace enabled.

Reviews: Geography and Regional Administration, French Revolution 1968, The Beginning of the End: France, May 1968, The Student Revolt: The Activists Speak, Obsolete Communism: The Left-Wing Alternative, Resistance: The Political Autobiography of Georges Bidault, The New French Revolution: A Social and Economic Survey of France, 1945–1967, The Government of France, French Politics and Political Institutions, The Army of the Republic: The Role of the Military in the Political and Constitutional Evolution of France, 1871–1914, Parades and Politics at Vichy: The French Officer Corps Under Marshal Petain, La Socialization Politique Des Enfants, French Administrative Law, The French Parliament 1958–1967, Canadian Legislative Behaviour: A Study of the 25th Parliament, La Fonction Parlementaire En Belgique: Mecanismes D'Acces Et Images, Congress: Its Contemporary Role, Congress and Lobbies: Image and Reality, Congressional Ethics: The Conflict of Interest Issue, The Congressional Process: Strategies, Rules, and Procedure, Marxian Socialism in the United States, The American Party Systems, Critics of Society, American Politics: A Radical View, The Democratic Experiment: American Political Theory, The Federalists vs., The Democratic Party in American Politics, Parties and the Governmental System, Jacksonian Democracy and the Working Class, One Man, One Vote, The Art of the Possible: Government and Foreign Policy in Canada, in Defence of Canada: From the Great War to the Great Depression, Canada's Changing Defense Policy, 1957–1963: The Problems of a Middle Power in Alliance, A Samaritan State? External Aid in Canada's Foreign Policy, Canada and the Quest for Peace, The Collected Works of Mahatma Gandhi, Vols. XI-XXVI (1911–1925), Gandhi, A Study in Revolution, Non-Violence and Aggression, A Study of Gandhi's Moral Equivalent of War, Indian Administration, The Citizen and the Administrator in a Developing Democracy, States' Finances in India, The Foundations of Indian Federalism, Elite Conflict in a Plural Society, West Bengal and the Federalizing Process in India, Party Building in a New Nation, The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws, Economic Planning and Policies in Britain, France and Germany, Communism and the Politics of Development, Internationalism or Russification?, People's Democracy: A Contribution to the Study of the Communist Theory of State and Revolution, The Permanent Crisis: Communism in World Politics, Cohesion and Conflict in International Communism: A Study of Marxist-Leninist Concepts and Their Application, the Communist States and the West, the Communist World: Marxist and Non-Marxist Views, Yearbook on International Communist Affairs, 1966., Soviet Foreign Policy

1969 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 236-265
Author(s):  
B. Keith-Lucas ◽  
N. P. Keatinge ◽  
Robert S. Short ◽  
L. P. O'Sullivan ◽  
Margherita Rendel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
French Revolution ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Politics ◽  
The Political ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Regional Administration

scholarly journals The Ukrainian Crisis and Russia: Theoretical and Technological Aspects of the Problem

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-288
Author(s):  
Andrey Andreev
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Political Development ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Situation

The article deals with the intermediate results of the use of a set of Russian political strategies and technologies in the Ukrainian direction of Foreign Policy since Ukraine gained independence. The research takes into account the peculiarities of the political development of Ukraine. The research objective was to identify the prerequisites, characteristics, and consequences of the Ukrainian political crisis at the turn of 2013–2014 and the resulting political regime and order. A systematic approach and comparative analysis made it possible to formulate a general assessment of the political situation in Ukraine following the so-called "the Revolution of Dignity". On the basis of formal-logical analysis, the author substantiated the need for a comprehensive audit of the amount of Russian technologies through the application of system analysis to certain political circumstances. The author substantiated the increasing role of political technologies of pro-active character in the situation of deep crisis of previously effective political institutions, mechanisms, and norms. The resonant nature of such technologies made it possible to link the latter with the political reflection on the place and role of Ukraine in the system of Russian Foreign Policy, as well as on the peculiarities of the Ukrainian political process and the nature of its political system. The author generalized the experience of Russian influence on the mentioned Ukrainian events and defined the general conditions that can allow Russia to affect a changeable political situation in the post-Soviet countries, taking into account the inconsistency of modern political trends. The scope of the results can be used in the spheres of foreign policy, public administration, and public policy.

Third-party regime type and civil war duration

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332097581
Author(s):  
Sara Norrevik ◽  
Mehwish Sarwari
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Selection Effects ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Conflict Outcomes ◽  
The Relationship

Does the regime type of a foreign intervener influence the duration of civil wars? Existing research has shown that third-party support affects the outcome of a conflict. Moreover, studies show that the type of support offered to conflict actors can determine how a war ends. While this research has offered significant implications on conflict dynamics, extant works have overlooked the importance of characteristics of foreign supporters and how their attributes can impact conflict outcomes. Focusing on foreign troop support and quantities, this article examines the relationship between the regime type of a foreign supporter and the outcome of an armed conflict. We argue that regime type of an external troop sponsor can influence war duration based on two dynamics: selection effects and signaling effects. Specifically, troop assistance provided to warring parties by democracies decreases the length of civil wars and increases the likelihood for a one-sided victory for the supported faction. The empirical findings for all intrastate conflicts during the period 1975–2012 provide evidence for our claims that the regime type of an external intervener influences the outcome of a conflict.

scholarly journals Missing in action: The EU–UK foreign, security and defence policy relationship after Brexit

European View ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-229
Author(s):  
Richard G. Whitman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Third Party ◽  
The Political ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Policy Challenge ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Missing In Action ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Brexit has transformed the EU–UK relationship into a foreign-policy challenge for both sides. The negotiations on the EU–UK future relationship have been a process in which both sides have been learning about the other as a third-party negotiator. The UK has taken a very different attitude to the Political Declaration, agreed alongside the Withdrawal Agreement (covering the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU), treating it as a guide rather than a roadmap for negotiations. And the UK has decided not to pursue negotiations with the EU on a future foreign, security and defence policy relationship. This is in a context in which the EU’s member states have committed to deepening security and defence cooperation. At present, and despite shared international challenges, a formal agreement on EU–UK foreign, security and defence policy looks set to be replaced by an approach of ‘muddling through’.

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