scholarly journals Example of a non-standard extreme-value law

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 1902-1912
Author(s):  
NICOLAI HAYDN ◽  
MICHAL KUPSA
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Short Note ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Limiting Distribution ◽  
Positive Entropy ◽  
Irrational Numbers ◽  
Distributed Processes ◽  
Suitable Sequence

It has been shown that sufficiently well mixing dynamical systems with positive entropy have extreme-value laws which in the limit converge to one of the three standard distributions known for independently and identically distributed processes, namely Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull distributions. In this short note, we give an example which has a non-standard limiting distribution for its extreme values. Rotations of the circle by irrational numbers are used and it will be shown that the limiting distribution is a step function where the limit has to be taken along a suitable sequence given by the convergents.

scholarly journals A Note on the Asymptotic Behavior of the Heights in $b$-Tries for $b$ Large

10.37236/1517 ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Knessl ◽  
Wojciech Szpankowski
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Saddle Point ◽  
Generating Functions ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Limiting Distribution ◽  
Point Method ◽  
Saddle Point Method ◽  
Numerical Verification ◽  
Height Distribution

We study the limiting distribution of the height in a generalized trie in which external nodes are capable to store up to $b$ items (the so called $b$-tries). We assume that such a tree is built from $n$ random strings (items) generated by an unbiased memoryless source. In this paper, we discuss the case when $b$ and $n$ are both large. We shall identify five regions of the height distribution that should be compared to three regions obtained for fixed $b$. We prove that for most $n$, the limiting distribution is concentrated at the single point $k_1=\lfloor \log_2 (n/b)\rfloor +1$ as $n,b\to \infty$. We observe that this is quite different than the height distribution for fixed $b$, in which case the limiting distribution is of an extreme value type concentrated around $(1+1/b)\log_2 n$. We derive our results by analytic methods, namely generating functions and the saddle point method. We also present some numerical verification of our results.

scholarly journals Nonparametric Estimation of Multivariate Extreme Value Copulas with Known and Unknown Marginal Distributions

2021 ◽  
Vol 2068 (1) ◽  
pp. 012003
Author(s):  
Ayari Samia ◽  
Mohamed Boutahar
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Empirical Distribution Function ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Empirical Distribution ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Dependence Function ◽  
Marginal Distributions ◽  
Nonparametric Estimators ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiments ◽  
Multivariate Extreme Values

Abstract The purpose of this paper is estimating the dependence function of multivariate extreme values copulas. Different nonparametric estimators are developed in the literature assuming that marginal distributions are known. However, this assumption is unrealistic in practice. To overcome the drawbacks of these estimators, we substituted the extreme value marginal distribution by the empirical distribution function. Monte Carlo experiments are carried out to compare the performance of the Pickands, Deheuvels, Hall-Tajvidi, Zhang and Gudendorf-Segers estimators. Empirical results showed that the empirical distribution function improved the estimators’ performance for different sample sizes.

Limit theorems for the minimal position in a branching random walk with independent logconcave displacements

2000 ◽  
Vol 32 (01) ◽  
pp. 159-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Bachmann
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Random Number ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Limiting Distribution ◽  
Branching Random Walk ◽  
Minimal Position ◽  
Conditional Limit

Consider a branching random walk in which each particle has a random number (one or more) of offspring particles that are displaced independently of each other according to a logconcave density. Under mild additional assumptions, we obtain the following results: the minimal position in the nth generation, adjusted by its α-quantile, converges weakly to a non-degenerate limiting distribution. There also exists a ‘conditional limit’ of the adjusted minimal position, which has a (Gumbel) extreme value distribution delayed by a random time-lag. Consequently, the unconditional limiting distribution is a mixture of extreme value distributions.

Consideration of Epistemic Uncertainty in Extreme Wave Height Estimation

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryota Wada ◽  
Takuji Waseda
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Posterior Predictive Distribution ◽  
Value Estimation

Extreme value estimation of significant wave height is essential for designing robust and economically efficient ocean structures. But in most cases, the duration of observational wave data is not efficient to make a precise estimation of the extreme value for the desired period. When we focus on hurricane dominated oceans, the situation gets worse. The uncertainty of the extreme value estimation is the main topic of this paper. We use Likelihood-Weighted Method (LWM), a method that can quantify the uncertainty of extreme value estimation in terms of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. We considered the extreme values of hurricane-dominated regions such as Japan and Gulf of Mexico. Though observational data is available for more than 30 years in Gulf of Mexico, the epistemic uncertainty for 100-year return period value is notably large. Extreme value estimation from 10-year duration of observational data, which is a typical case in Japan, gave a Coefficient of Variance of 43%. This may have impact on the design rules of ocean structures. Also, the consideration of epistemic uncertainty gives rational explanation for the past extreme events, which were considered as abnormal. Expected Extreme Value distribution (EEV), which is the posterior predictive distribution, defined better extreme values considering the epistemic uncertainty.

Extreme Values of Waves and Ship Responses Subject to the Markov Chain Condition

1979 ◽  
Vol 23 (03) ◽  
pp. 188-197
Author(s):  
Michel K. Ochi
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Random Process ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Chain Condition ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Spectral Bandwidth

This paper discusses the effect of statistical dependence of the maxima (peak values) of a stationary random process on the magnitude of the extreme values. A theoretical analysis of the extreme values of a stationary normal random process is made, assuming the maxima are subject to the Markov chain condition. For this, the probability distribution function of maxima as well as the joint probability distribution function of two successive maxima of a normal process having an arbitrary spectral bandwidth are applied to Epstein's theorem for evaluating the extreme values in a given sample under the Markov chain condition. A numerical evaluation of the extreme values is then carried out for a total of 14 random processes, including nine ocean wave records, with various spectral bandwidth parameters ranging from 0.11 to 0.78. From the results of the computations, it is concluded that the Markov concept is applicable to the maxima of random processes whose spectral bandwidth parameter, ɛ, is less than 0.5, and that the extreme values with and without the Markov concept are constant irrespective of the e-value, and the former is approximately 10 percent greater than the latter. It is also found that the sample size for which the extreme value reaches a certain level with the Markov concept is much less than that without the Markov concept. For example, the extreme value will reach a level of 4.0 (nondimensional value) in 1100 observations of the maxima with the Markov concept, while the extreme value will reach the same level in 3200 observations of the maxima without the Markov concept.

scholarly journals Implicit max-stable extremal integrals

Extremes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kremer
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Open Problem ◽  
Stochastic Integral ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Stable Distributions ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Extreme Value Distributions ◽  
Application Point ◽  
Deterministic Function

Abstract Recently, the notion of implicit extreme value distributions has been established, which is based on a given loss function f ≥ 0. From an application point of view, one is rather interested in extreme loss events that occur relative to f than in the corresponding extreme values itself. In this context, so-called f -implicit α-Fréchet max-stable distributions arise and have been used to construct independently scattered sup-measures that possess such margins. In this paper we solve an open problem in Goldbach (2016) by developing a stochastic integral of a deterministic function g ≥ 0 with respect to implicit max-stable sup-measures. The resulting theory covers the construction of max-stable extremal integrals (see Stoev and Taqqu Extremes 8, 237–266 (2005)) and, at the same time, reveals striking parallels.

Covariate Extreme Value Analysis Using Wave Spectral Partitioning

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 873-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Portilla-Yandún ◽  
Edwin Jácome
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Spectral Energy Distribution ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Spectral Energy ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Spectral Partitioning

AbstractAn important requirement in extreme value analysis (EVA) is for the working variable to be identically distributed. However, this is typically not the case in wind waves, because energy components with different origins belong to separate data populations, with different statistical properties. Although this information is available in the wave spectrum, the working variable in EVA is typically the total significant wave height Hs, a parameter that does not contain information of the spectral energy distribution, and therefore does not fulfill this requirement. To gain insight in this aspect, we develop here a covariate EVA application based on spectral partitioning. We observe that in general the total Hs is inappropriate for EVA, leading to potential over- or underestimation of the projected extremes. This is illustrated with three representative cases under significantly different wave climate conditions. It is shown that the covariate analysis provides a meaningful understanding of the individual behavior of the wave components, in regard to the consequences for projecting extreme values.

scholarly journals Using machine learning to predict extreme events in complex systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 117 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Qi ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Water Waves ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Partition Functions ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Using Data

Extreme events and the related anomalous statistics are ubiquitously observed in many natural systems, and the development of efficient methods to understand and accurately predict such representative features remains a grand challenge. Here, we investigate the skill of deep learning strategies in the prediction of extreme events in complex turbulent dynamical systems. Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to many imaging processing problems involving big data, and have recently shown potential for the study of dynamical systems. We propose to use a densely connected mixed-scale network model to capture the extreme events appearing in a truncated Korteweg–de Vries (tKdV) statistical framework, which creates anomalous skewed distributions consistent with recent laboratory experiments for shallow water waves across an abrupt depth change, where a remarkable statistical phase transition is generated by varying the inverse temperature parameter in the corresponding Gibbs invariant measures. The neural network is trained using data without knowing the explicit model dynamics, and the training data are only drawn from the near-Gaussian regime of the tKdV model solutions without the occurrence of large extreme values. A relative entropy loss function, together with empirical partition functions, is proposed for measuring the accuracy of the network output where the dominant structures in the turbulent field are emphasized. The optimized network is shown to gain uniformly high skill in accurately predicting the solutions in a wide variety of statistical regimes, including highly skewed extreme events. The technique is promising to be further applied to other complicated high-dimensional systems.

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