scholarly journals Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Infection Trend Using Technical Analysis Indicators

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Marino Paroli ◽  
Maria Isabella Sirinian
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Price Trend ◽  
Subsequent Change ◽  
Change Of Direction ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Combined Use ◽  
Security Price

ABSTRACT Objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to evaluate whether technical analysis (TA) indicators, commonly used in the financial market to spot security price trend reversals, might be proficiently used also to anticipate a possible increase of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Methods: Analysis was performed on datasets from Italy, Iran, and Brazil. TA indicators tested were: (1) the combined use of a faster (3-d) and a slower (20-d) simple moving averages (SMA), (2) the moving average converge/divergence (MACD), and (3) the divergence in the direction of the number of new daily cases trend and the corresponding MACD histogram. Results: We found that the use of both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided a reliable signal of trend inversion of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Results were consistent for all the 3 countries considered. The trend reversals signaled by the indicators were always followed by a sustained trend persistence until a new signal of reversal appeared. Conclusions: TA indicators tested here proved to be reliable tools to identify in the short mid-term a subsequent change of direction of viral spread trend either downward, upward, or sideward.

MOMENTUM OSCILLATORS - A TOOL TO PREDICT STOCK PRICE BEHAVIOUR

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shishir Kumar Gujrati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Range Data ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Price Movements

Stock markets are always taken as the barometer of the economy. The price movement of their indices reflects every ups and downs of the economy. Although seem to be random, these price movements do follow a certain track which can be identified using appropriate tool over long range data. One such method is of Technical Analysis wherein future price trends are forecasted using past data. Momentum Oscillators are the important tools of technical analysis. The current paper aims to identify the previous price movements of sensex by using Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) tools and also aims to check whether these tools are appropriate in forecasting the price trends or not.

scholarly journals Improving MACD Technical Analysis by Optimizing Parameters and Modifying Trading Rules: Evidence from the Japanese Nikkei 225 Futures Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Byung-Kook Kang
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Traditional Model ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
Parameter Values

Much research has examined performance or market efficiency by using the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) technical analysis tool. However, most tests fail to verify efficiency with the traditional parameter settings of 12, 26, and 9 days. This study confirms that applying the traditional model to Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures prices produces negative performance over the period of 2011–2019. Yet, it also finds that the MACD tool can earn significant positive returns when it uses optimized parameter values. This suggests that the Japanese market is not weak-form efficient in the sense that futures prices do not reflect all public information. Hence, the three parameters values of the MACD tool should be optimized for each market and this should take precedence over finding other strategies to reduce false trade signals. This study also tests which models are able to improve profitability by applying additional criteria to avoid false trade signals. From simulations using 19,456 different MACD models, we find that the number of models with improved performance resulting from these strategies is far greater for models with optimized parameter values than for models with non-optimized values. This approach has not been discussed in the existing literature.

scholarly journals Distinct uptake, amplification, and release of SARS-CoV-2 by M1 and M2 alveolar macrophages

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiadi Lv ◽  
Zhenfeng Wang ◽  
Yajin Qu ◽  
Hua Zhu ◽  
Qiangqiang Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Mouse Model ◽  
Alveolar Macrophages ◽  
Transgenic Mouse Model ◽  
Lysosomal Ph ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Lysosomal System ◽  
Endosomal Ph ◽  
Alternatively Activated ◽  
Classically Activated

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) invades the alveoli, where abundant alveolar macrophages (AMs) reside. How AMs respond to SARS-CoV-2 invasion remains elusive. Here, we show that classically activated M1 AMs facilitate viral spread; however, alternatively activated M2 AMs limit the spread. M1 AMs utilize cellular softness to efficiently take up SARS-CoV-2. Subsequently, the invaded viruses take over the endo-lysosomal system to escape. M1 AMs have a lower endosomal pH, favoring membrane fusion and allowing the entry of viral RNA from the endosomes into the cytoplasm, where the virus achieves replication and is packaged to be released. In contrast, M2 AMs have a higher endosomal pH but a lower lysosomal pH, thus delivering the virus to lysosomes for degradation. In hACE2 transgenic mouse model, M1 AMs are found to facilitate SARS-CoV-2 infection of the lungs. These findings provide insights into the complex roles of AMs during SARS-CoV-2 infection, along with potential therapeutic targets.

COVID-19: Are Experimental Drugs Cure or Ill?

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bensu Karahalil ◽  
Aylin Elkama
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Experimental Drugs ◽  
Combined Use ◽  
The World

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new strain of coronavirus. It is characterized by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has quickly influenced all over the world since it spreads easily. Common symptoms are fever, cough, difficulty in breathing and muscle aches. Despite the urgent need to find an effective antiviral treatment, already available agents are being used alone or in combination all over the world. At the beginning of the pandemic, death rates of infection caused by COVID-19 are high but "is COVID-19 responsible for all deaths?", or “are there any contributions of the frequently used drugs in this period to these deaths?” Surely herd immunity plays a major role and has the contribution in the decline in mortality rates. Meanwhile, it is kept in mind that due to safety concerns, changes have also been made to the dosage and combined use of frequently used drugs. Objective: In this review, answers to two questions above and the safety of treatments, toxicities of agents involving chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir, favipiravir, lopiravir/ritonavir, sarilumab, tocilizumab, siltuximab, corticosteroids and bromhexine which are the most frequently used in both Turkey and all over the world will be summarized. Conclusion: Among these drugs favipiravir seems the most promising drug due to more tolerable adverse effects. More clinical trials with large sample sizes are needed to find the most effective and safe drug for COVID-19 treatment.

Updated picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations

Diagnosis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Lippi ◽  
Camilla Mattiuzzi ◽  
Brandon M. Henry
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Definitive Treatment ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Limited Efficacy ◽  
Highly Virulent ◽  
New Mutations

Abstract The worldwide burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still unremittingly prosecuting, with nearly 300 million infections and over 5.3 million deaths recorded so far since the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic at the end of the year 2019. The fight against this new highly virulent beta coronavirus appears one of the most strenuous and long challenges that humanity has ever faced, since a definitive treatment has not been identified so far. The adoption of potentially useful physical preventive measures such as lockdowns, social distancing and face masking seems only partially effective for mitigating viral spread, though efficacy and continuation of such measures on the long term is questionable, due to many social and economic reasons. Many COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and are now widely used, though their effectiveness is challenged by several aspects such as low uptake and limited efficacy in some specific populations, as well as by continuous emergence of new mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, accompanying the origin and spread of new variants, which in turn may contribute to further decrease the effectiveness of current vaccines and treatments. This article is hence aimed to provide an updated picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations that have emerged from November 2019 to present time (i.e., early December 2021).

scholarly journals Machine learning applied in the stock market through the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-60
Author(s):  
Alberto Antonio Agudelo Aguirre ◽  
Ricardo Alfredo Rojas Medina ◽  
Néstor Darío Duque Méndez
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Genetic Algorithms ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Historical Data Analysis ◽  
Financial Asset Returns ◽  
Technical Indicator

The implementation of tools such as Genetic Algorithms has not been exploited for asset price prediction despite their power, robustness, and potential application in the stock market. This paper aims to fill the gap existing in the literature on the use of Genetic Algorithms for predicting asset pricing of investment strategies into stock markets and investigate its advantages over its peers Buy & Hold and traditional technical analysis. The Genetic Algorithms strategy applied to the MACD was carried out in two different validation periods and sought to optimize the parameters that generate the buy-sell signals. The performance between the machine learning-based approach, technical analysis with the MACD and B&H was compared. The results suggest that it is possible to find optimal values of the technical indicator parameters that result in a higher return on investment through Genetic Algorithms, beating the traditional technical analysis and B&H by around 4%. This study offers a new insight for practitioners, traders, and finance researchers to take advantage of Genetic Algorithms for trading rules application in forecasting financial asset returns under a more efficient and robust methodology based on historical data analysis.

scholarly journals NEPSE in Bollinger Bands

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-451
Author(s):  
Rashesh Vaidya ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Line Graph ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Daily Return ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Clear Signal ◽  
Analysis Tools ◽  
Graphical Presentation

<abstract> <p>An investor uses the graphical presentation of Bollinger Bands to get signals of the ups and downs, as well the volatility of the market from the expansion and tightening of the UBB and LBB, reflecting higher and lower volatility. The percent (%) b helps determine the opportunities during extreme periods from the market, looking at the concentration of line graph at the value "0" or "1" reflecting the bearish and bullish trend, respectively. The Bandwidth Index was able to picture out the bullish trend with a squeeze at the upper band. The positive unimodality of Q for NEPSE daily return for the period of the fiscal year 1998–1999 to the fiscal year 2019–2020 indicated normality for the market return. Nevertheless, the results for the trading signals based on the Bollinger bands are seen as useful for an investor by giving a clear signal to "buy" or "sell". At the same time, relying only on Bollinger Bands with a specific period MA, i.e. the Bollinger Bands with a shorter moving average (MA) shows higher fluctuations and vice-versa, hence, could show false signals while choosing inappropriate MA, therefore, help of other technical analysis tools should be taken while going for an investment decision.</p> </abstract>

Testing Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from SAARC Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Faisal Anees ◽  
Shujahat Haider Hashmi ◽  
Muhammad Asad
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Technical Trading Rules ◽  
Average Rule ◽  
Data Representative ◽  
Simple Average

Technical analysis is widely accepted tool in professional place which is frequently used for investment decisions. Technical analysis beliefs that there exist patterns and trends and by capturing trends and patterns one can bless with above average profits. We test two technical strategies: Moving averages and Trading Range to question, either these techniques can yield profitable returns with the help of historical data. Representative daily indices of Four countries namely Pakistan, India, Srilanka, Bangladesh ranging from 1997 to 2011 have been examined. In case of Moving Average Rule, both simple and exponential averages have been examined to test eleven different short term and long term rules with and without band condition. Our results delivered that buy signals generate consistent above average returns for the all sub periods and sell signals generate lower returns than the normal returns. Intriguing observation is that Exponential average generates higher returns than the Simple Average. The results of Trading Range Break strategy are parallel with Moving average Method. However, Trading Range Strategy found not to give higher average higher return when compared with Moving Averages Rules and degree of volatility in returns is higher when compared with moving Average rule. In attempt to conclude, there exist patterns and trends that yield above average and below average returns which justify the validity of technical analysis.

Candle charts for financial technical analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 200-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet F. Dicle
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Visual Representations ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Research And Teaching ◽  
Industry Research ◽  
The Individual

Technical analysis is an important part of financial industry, research, and teaching. The methodology has two parts: i) calculation of the individual tools and ii) visual representations. In this article, I provide a community-contributed command, candlechart, to draw the most common technical analysis charts. My intent is to draw these charts similarly to industry examples. The popular candle price chart is combined with charts for volume, moving-average convergence divergence, relative strength index, and Bollinger bands.

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