Fertility, immigration, and lifetime wages under imperfect labor substitution

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-532
Author(s):  
Ross Guest ◽  
Nick Parr
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Standard Result ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Small Cohort ◽  
Demographic Patterns ◽  
Perfect Substitution

AbstractThis paper provides new insights into the effect of birth cohort size on cohort lifetime wages and its sensitivity to the future trajectories of immigration and fertility. The main innovation is to relax the typical assumption of perfect substitution of labor by age. The effect of imperfect substitution of labor by age is to qualify the standard result that smaller birth cohorts are likely to enjoy relatively high wages since that result depends on the size of co-worker cohorts. The positive small cohort effect on lifetime wages therefore depends on demographic patterns, which are simulated here through low and high fertility and immigration projections. The analysis applies to actual and projected cohorts for Australia and tests the sensitivity to alternative demographic parameters, and the substitution and discount parameters. The effects of imperfect substitution can amount several percentage points of lifetime wages.

scholarly journals The role of demographic and behavioural change for the long-term decline in daily smoking in Norway

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 760-765
Author(s):  
Tord F Vedøy
Keyword(s):  
Population Aging ◽  
Behavioural Change ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Cohort Change ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The aim of this paper was to compare the effects of demography (population aging and the increasing fraction of tertiary educated) and behaviour (intra-cohort ageing and inter-cohort change) on long-term change in the fraction of daily smokers (FrS), using a counterfactual framework. Methods Using aggregated data on smoking prevalence, education and population size from Norway 1978 to 2017, the probabilities of smoking for men and women were calculated using a pseudo-panel approach. From these estimates, four counterfactual scenarios of FrS were constructed by holding the age effect, the cohort effect and the distribution of age and education constant over time. Results FrS decreased from 45 to 14% among men, and from 33 to 14% among women over the study period. Holding the age distribution constant did not have any substantial effect on FrS. Holding the distribution of education constant led to a five percentage points increase in FrS among women, but not among men. In the case of no intra-cohort ageing, FrS would have been 11/12 percentage points higher among women/men. The corresponding figures for no inter-cohort change were 13 points for women and 27 points for men. Conclusions If the age distribution had remained stable over time, FrS would have been almost identical to the current level. In contrast, if smoking behaviour had remained stable over the life course or between birth cohorts, FrS would have been substantially higher than it is today. These results highlight the large cumulative effect of reducing smoking uptake in successive cohorts.

scholarly journals Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Wang ◽  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Huan Ma ◽  
Suru Yue ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Disease Pattern ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

scholarly journals Improved Cognitive Function in the Tromsø Study in Norway From 2001 to 2016

2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/CPJ.0000000000001115
Author(s):  
Bente Johnsen ◽  
Bjørn Heine Strand ◽  
Ieva Martinaityte ◽  
Ellisiv B. Mathiesen ◽  
Henrik Schirmer
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Cohort Differences ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
Drinking Frequency ◽  
Birth Cohort Effect

AbstractObjective:Physical capacity and cardiovascular risk profiles seem to be improving in the population. Cognition have been improving due to a birth cohort effect, but evidence is conflicting on whether this improvement remains in the latest decades, and what is causing the changes in our population over 60 years old. We aimed to investigate birth cohort differences in cognition.Method:The study comprised 9514 participants from the Tromsø study, an ongoing longitudinal cohort study. Participants were in the ages 60–87 years, born between 1914 and 1956. They did four cognitive tests in three waves during 2001-2016. Linear regression was applied, and adjusted for age, education, blood pressure, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, stroke, heart attack, depression, diabetes, physical activity, alcohol use, BMI and height.Results:Cognitive test scores were better in later-born birth cohorts for all age groups, and in both sexes, compared with earlier born cohorts. Increased education, physical activity, alcohol intake, decreasing smoking prevalence and increasing height was associated with one third of this improvement across birth cohorts in women and one half of the improvement in men.Conclusion:Cognitive results were better in more recent born birth cohorts compared with earlier born, assessed at the same age. The improvement was present in all cognitive domains, suggesting an overall improvement in cognitive performance. The 80-year-olds assessed in 2015-16 performed like 60-year-olds assessed in 2001. The improved scores were associated with increased education level, increase in modest drinking frequency, increased physical activity and for men, smoking cessation and increased height.

scholarly journals Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Diabetes in China from 1990 to 2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxue Liu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu ◽  
Yongbo Wang ◽  
Yongyi Bi ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Joinpoint Regression Analysis ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Background: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is rapidly increasing in China, but the secular trends in incidence and mortality remain unknown. This study aims to examine time trends from 1990 to 2017 and the net age, period, and cohort effects on diabetes incidence and mortality. Methods: Incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 5–9 to 80–84 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: The joinpoint regression analysis showed that age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.3%) in men and 0.69% in women (95% CI: 0.3%, 1.0%) from 1990 to 2017; age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.78% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in men and decreased by 0.12% (95% CI: −0.4%, 0.1%) in women. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of 30–34, 60–64, 65–69 and 70–74 age groups in men and 25–29, 30–34, 35–39 and 70–74 age groups in women; mortality in men decreased in the younger age groups (from 20–24 to 45–49 age group) while increased in the older age groups (from 50–54 to 80–84 age group), and mortality in women decreased for all age groups with exception of the age group 75–79 and 80–84. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age while mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period while the period trend on incidence began to decrease since 2007; cohort effect on incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts while incidence showed no material changes from 1982–1986 to 2012–2016 birth cohort. Conclusions: Mortality decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups. Incidence increased in most age groups. The net age or period effect showed an unfavorable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favorable trend. Aging likely drives a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for obesity prevention, healthy diet and regular physical activity should be conducted, especially for men and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

scholarly journals Inequality of healthy life expectancy for the Chinese elderly and its trend

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaishan Jiao
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Healthy Life Expectancy ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Healthy Life ◽  
Long Term Follow Up

AbstractIn this study, we use long-term follow-up survey data to explore the inequality of the healthy life expectancy among the elderly and the trends of such expectancy among different birth cohorts and at different ages. The results show that older people with higher socioeconomic status do not have a significant advantage in healthy life expectancy. Its advantage in life expectancy is mainly due to the relatively low mortality rate under conditions of disability, i.e., the relatively long life expectancy with disability. This also shows that the elderly with higher socioeconomic status is at the stage of disability expansion. In addition, the study examines the age effect and cohort effect of health inequality and points out that health inequalities among different socioeconomic status groups are likely to increase in the future.

Cohort Trends in Youth Suicide in Australia 1964–1997

2000 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 408-412
Author(s):  
Michael Lynskey ◽  
Louisa Degenhardt ◽  
Wayne Hall
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Psychosocial Problems ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Youth Suicide ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15–24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964–1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940–1944, 1945–1949, 1950–1954, 1955–1959, 1960–1964, 1965–1969, 1970–1974, and 1975–1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964–1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15–24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15–24 years in 1985–1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.

Parental Wealth and First-time Homeownership: A Cohort Study of Family Background and Young Adults’ Housing Situation in Sweden

Urban Studies ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 49 (10) ◽  
pp. 2137-2152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Enström Öst
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Family Background ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Housing Situation ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Tenure Decision ◽  
Parental Wealth ◽  
First Time

This paper investigates whether family background seems to have any influence on first-time homeownership. Recent studies have indicated that it has become more difficult to become established in the housing market and such situations may increase the importance of parental wealth. In this study, parental wealth is estimated as family background information on parents’ homeownership, father’s socioeconomic status and single parenting. Unique cohort data for three birth cohorts suggest that there is a significant cohort effect in young adults’ tenure decision. Furthermore, the results imply that parents’ homeownership has become a more important predictor of the transition to first-time homeownership for those young adults facing increasing problems in the housing market.

scholarly journals Exploring the Demographic History of Populations with Enhanced Lexis Surfaces

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Cimentada ◽  
Sebastian Klüsener ◽  
Tim Riffe
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Analytical Potential ◽  
R Shiny ◽  
History Of ◽  
Very High ◽  
Shiny Application

Lexis surfaces are widely used to analyze demographic trends across periods, ages, and birth cohorts. When used to visualize rates or similar, these plots usually do not convey information about population size. The failure to communicate population size in Lexis surfaces can lead to misinterpretations of the mortality conditions populations face because, for example, high mortality rates at very high ages have historically been experienced by only a small proportion of a population or cohort. We propose enhanced Lexis surfaces that include a visual representation of population size. The examples we present demonstrate how such plots can give readers a more intuitive understanding of the demographic development of a population over time. Visualizations are implemented using an R-Shiny application, building upon perception theories. We present example plots for enhanced Lexis surfaces that show trends in cohort mortality and first-order differences in cohort mortality developments. These plots illustrate how adding the cohort size dimension allows us to extend the analytical potential of standard Lexis surfaces. Our enhanced Lexis surfaces improve conventional depictions of period, age, and cohort trends in demographic developments of populations and cohorts. An online interactive visualization tool based on Human Mortality Database data allows users to generate and export enhanced Lexis surfaces for their research. The R code to generate the application (and a link to the deployed application) can be accessed at https://github.com/cimentadaj/lexis_plot.

P–413 The combination of endometrial injury and Freeze-All strategy in women with repeated implantation failures

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Rigos ◽  
V Athanasiou ◽  
N Vlahos ◽  
N Papantoniou ◽  
C Siristatidis
Keyword(s):  
Live Birth ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Endometrial Injury ◽  
Biochemical Pregnancy ◽  
Registration Number ◽  
Small Cohort ◽  
Cryopreservation Method

Abstract Study question Can the combination of hysteroscopic endometrial injury (EI) and freeze-all strategy improve pregnancy parameters, mainly live birth, in women with repeated implantation failures (RIF)? Summary answer The combination of Endometrial Injury and freeze-all strategy has no significant effect on live birth, clinical and miscarriage rates in RIF patients undergoing ART. What is known already A variety of strategies and approaches for RIF patients undergoing ART have been used and proposed. Currently there is insufficient evidence in the literature concerning the effect of either EI or freeze-all strategy in IVF cycles and very limited on the combination of these two approaches in RIF patients. Study design, size, duration This is a two-center two-arm cohort study conducted at both University and Private Assisted Reproductive Units in Greece, encompassing 60 cycles with vitrification as the cryopreservation method from 60 participants during the last three years. Participants/materials, setting, methods The study group comprised of 30 patients with RIF and underwent a hysteroscopic endometrial injury in the menstrual cycle prior that to the embryo transfer. The control group comprised of patients with RIF and underwent a standard cycle with no adjuvant treatment. Our primary analysis was performed to provide a direct comparison between groups. Logistic and Poisson Regression models were further employed to examine possible confounding effects. Main results and the role of chance Live birth did not differ between groups (p = 0.0953); similarly, clinical pregnancy and miscarriage rates were comparable among them (p = 0.3472 and p = 0.2542, respectively). The number of retrieved oocytes was the only significant confounder for biochemical pregnancy (p = 0.0481, 95% CI: (0.0014, 0.3223)]. Limitations, reasons for caution Limitations of the study include the lack of randomization that is linked with known and unknown biases and the small cohort size. Wider implications of the findings: The combination of both endometrial injury and freeze-all strategy does not appear to improve pregnancy rates, including live birth, in patients with RIF undergoing ART. The number of retrieved oocytes was the only significant confounder for biochemical pregnancy. Trial registration number NCT04597463

scholarly journals Age-period-cohort effects in half a century of motor vehicle theft in the United States

Crime Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Dixon ◽  
Graham Farrell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Motor Vehicle Theft ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Vehicle Theft ◽  
Period Effects

AbstractAdopting and refining O’Brien’s S-constraint approach, we estimate age-period-cohort effects for motor vehicle theft offences in the United States for over half a century from 1960. Taking the well-established late-teen peak offending age as given, we find period effects reducing theft in the 1970 s, and period, but particularly cohort effects, reducing crime from the 1990s onwards. We interpret these effects as consistent with variation in the prevailing level of crime opportunities, particularly the ease with which vehicles could be stolen. We interpret the post-1990s cohort effect as triggered by a period effect that operated differentially by age: improved vehicle security reduced juvenile offending dramatically, to the extent that cohorts experienced reduced offending across the life-course. This suggests the prevailing level of crime opportunities in juvenile years is an important determinant of rates of onset and continuance in offending in birth cohorts. We outline additional implications for research and practice.

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