Wellbeing measures of mortality risks: life-cycle contradictions and ordinal index challenges

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-253
Author(s):  
W. KIP VISCUSI
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Ordinal Ranking ◽  
Shape Pattern ◽  
Utility Loss ◽  
Shaped Pattern ◽  
Ordinal Index

AbstractThe value of a statistical life (VSL) monetizes the expected loss in wellbeing associated with the risk of death. The utility loss resulting from a fatality is central to the empirical framework for estimating the VSL. The VSL trajectory over the life cycle exhibits an inverted-U shape, following a trajectory similar to that of lifetime patterns of consumption. The U-shaped pattern displayed by happiness measures over the life cycle is the opposite of the inverted-U shape pattern displayed by the VSL. It is consequently inappropriate to use happiness measures as ordinal ranking substitutes for the VSL for the purposes of estimating the benefits of mortality risk reduction. Compared to ordinal wellbeing scales, the VSL also offers a variety of additional capabilities by providing a cardinal index of the unit benefits for changes in mortality risks.

scholarly journals Groundwater Arsenic-Attributable Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Mortality Risks in India

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2232
Author(s):  
Ruohan Wu ◽  
Lingqian Xu ◽  
David A. Polya
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Exposure ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Exposure Pathway ◽  
Groundwater Arsenic ◽  
Cvd Mortality ◽  
High Arsenic

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have been recognized as the most serious non-carcinogenic detrimental health outcome arising from chronic exposure to arsenic. Drinking arsenic contaminated groundwaters is a critical and common exposure pathway for arsenic, notably in India and other countries in the circum-Himalayan region. Notwithstanding this, there has hitherto been a dearth of data on the likely impacts of this exposure on CVD in India. In this study, CVD mortality risks arising from drinking groundwater with high arsenic (>10 μg/L) in India and its constituent states, territories, and districts were quantified using the population-attributable fraction (PAF) approach. Using a novel pseudo-contouring approach, we estimate that between 58 and 64 million people are exposed to arsenic exceeding 10 μg/L in groundwater-derived drinking water in India. On an all-India basis, we estimate that 0.3–0.6% of CVD mortality is attributable to exposure to high arsenic groundwaters, corresponding to annual avoidable premature CVD-related deaths attributable to chronic exposure to groundwater arsenic in India of between around 6500 and 13,000. Based on the reported reduction in life of 12 to 28 years per death due to heart disease, we calculate value of statistical life (VSL) based annual costs to India of arsenic-attributable CVD mortality of between USD 750 million and USD 3400 million.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Coiera ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Farah Magrabi ◽  
Oscar Perez Concha ◽  
Blanca Gallego ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Risk Of Death

Estimating the Value of Statistical Life in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Six Representative Cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaoji Cao ◽  
Xinke Song ◽  
Wenjia Cai ◽  
Yichao Li ◽  
Jianhui Cong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Contingent Valuation ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Value Of Statistical Life ◽  
Contingent Valuation Study ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Public ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Valuation Study

Abstract Incorporating the health impacts into all kinds of policy decisions has become the shared expectations of policymakers and the public, hoping to obtain the most significant health benefits with the least policy costs. The value of statistical life (VSL), which represents the additional cost that individuals are willing to reduce the risk of death, is a core tool for monetizing health impacts. Though VSL has been widely studied internationally, the existing VSL research in China has limitations on regional representativeness, questionnaire design, and discussion of influencing factors. To fill these research gaps, we selected six representative cities in six typical provinces based on cluster analysis and conducted a face-to-face contingent valuation interview (n=3936) from March 7, 2019, to September 30, 2019, using the hypothetical vaccine as the payment tool followed by double-bounded dichotomous choice questions. The respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce the death risk from air pollution was elicited and used to quantify the VSL of typical urban residents. Also, we discussed the determinants of WTP and VSL in comparison with previous studies. Results showed that the WTP varied from 455-763 yuan, corresponding to a VSL range of 3.79-6.36 million yuan (price in 2019) in different cities. Therefore, the VSL in China in 2019 was estimated to be 5.10 million yuan, which was 1.2-41 times of the previous studies (in 2019 price). It was also proven that influencing factors such as monthly expenditure levels, environmental concerns, risk attitudes, and assumed market acceptance, which had been seldom discussed in previous studies, had significant impacts on the WTP and the VSL. There were substantial differences in the influencing factors of residents' WTP in different cities, which provided a reasonable explanation for the large gap of the VSL among six representative cities.

Valuing lives and life years: anomalies, implications, and an alternative

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL DOLAN ◽  
ROBERT METCALFE ◽  
VICKI MUNRO ◽  
MICHAEL C. CHRISTENSEN
Keyword(s):  
Stated Preference ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Quality Adjusted Life Year ◽  
Revealed Preferences ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Starting Point

AbstractMany government interventions seek to reduce the risk of death. The value of preventing a fatality (VPF) is the monetary amount associated with each statistical death that an intervention can be expected to prevent. The VPF has been estimated using a preference-based approach, either by observing market behaviour (revealed preferences) or by asking hypothetical questions that seek to replicate the market (stated preferences). The VPF has been shown to differ across and within these methods. In theory, the VPF should vary according to factors such as baseline and background risk, but, in practice, the estimates vary more by theoretically irrelevant factors, such as the starting point in stated preference studies. This variation makes it difficult to choose one unique VPF. The theoretically irrelevant factors also affect the estimates of the monetary value of a statistical life year and the value of a quality-adjusted life year. In light of such problems, it may be fruitful to focus more research efforts on generating the VPF using an approach based on the subjective well-being associated with different states of the world.

scholarly journals What is the meaning of (statistical) life? Benefit–cost analysis in the time of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S56-S63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Colmer
Keyword(s):  
Social Benefits ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Benefit Cost Analysis ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
The Social ◽  
Morbidity Risks ◽  
Public Policy Decisions ◽  
Benefit Cost

Abstract Efforts to support public policy decisions need to be conducted carefully and thoughtfully. Recent efforts to estimate the social benefits of reductions in mortality risks associated with COVID-19 interventions are likely understated. There are large uncertainties over how much larger the social benefits could be. This raises questions about how helpful conventional approaches to valuing mortality and morbidity risks for benefit–cost analyses can be in contexts such as the current crisis.

scholarly journals AGING, THE GREAT MODERATION, AND BUSINESS-CYCLE VOLATILITY IN A LIFE-CYCLE MODEL

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 362-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burkhard Heer ◽  
Stefan Rohrbacher ◽  
Christian Scharrer
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Overlapping Generations Model ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Shaped Pattern

According to empirical studies, the life cycle of labor supply volatility exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This may lead to the conclusion that demographic change induces a drop in output volatility. We present an overlapping-generations model that replicates the empirically observed pattern and study the impact of demographic transition on output volatility. We find that the change in age composition itself has only a marginal influence on output volatility, as the mitigating effect of more individuals with lower labor supply volatilities is compensated for by higher age-specific labor shares. Instead, the driving force behind the Great Moderation in our model is the downward shift of the age-specific labor supply volatility curve.

scholarly journals Fractal aspects of natural growth

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Growth Process ◽  
Digital Equipment Corporation ◽  
Human Growth ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Natural Growth ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Shaped Pattern ◽  
Logistic Functions ◽  
Digital Equipment

The work presented here puts forward a fractal aspect of natural growth. The S-shaped pattern of a logistic function is analyzed in terms of several constituent logistic functions. The approach sheds light on two familiar phenomena: the undulatory evolution of growth, which gives rise to an alternation between high-and low-growth periods, and the increasingly noticeable shrinking life cycle of products. There are some economic and political implications for the European nations. A quantitative example is given for computer sales from Digital Equipment Corporation. The approach is further generalized to suggest that any growth process can be analyzed in terms of natural-growth subprocesses. Applied to human growth this analysis yields precise definitions for the timing of transitions such as babyhood to childhood, and childhood to adolescence.

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