scholarly journals Responsible Precautions for Uncertain Environmental Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Kip Viscusi ◽  
Joel Huber ◽  
Jason Bell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Bisphenol A ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Uncertain Future

AbstractUncertain future risks pose cognitive and analytical challenges to household decision makers. Risks with uncertain probabilities, coupled with potentially severe outcomes pose problems for decision-making and are prone to overreactions. Imprecision in risk estimates generates behavioral distortions such as ambiguity aversion. This article presents new empirical results indicating household overvaluations of uncertain threats posed by several drinking water risks: traces of prescription drugs in drinking water, plastic water bottles with bisphenol-A, and the weed killer atrazine in drinking water. Negative reactions reflect responses to ambiguous risks, but policies driven by these concerns may misallocate regulatory resources due to risk conservatism and “no-regrets” responses.

The Perception and Excessive Valuation of Small, Publicized Drinking Water Risks

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-243
Author(s):  
W. Kip Viscusi ◽  
Joel Huber ◽  
Jason Bell
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Bisphenol A ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
High Water ◽  
Herbicide Atrazine ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
Original Survey

AbstractLow probability risks create challenges for individual decisions and potential pressures for government regulation. This article reports original survey evidence regarding the public’s perception and valuation of water-related risks from plastic bottles with bisphenol A, residues in drinking water of the herbicide atrazine, and trace amounts of prescription drugs in water. People who believe that they face high water-related risks generally believe that the risks apply and, given that belief, are willing to pay more to limit the risk. However, the expressed willingness to pay for risk reductions is inordinately high even among those who are unsure of whether they are even exposed to the risk, and therefore may not be reliable as values for the actual benefits.

scholarly journals Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra G. Rosati ◽  
Brian Hare
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pan Troglodytes ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Pan Paniscus ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Food Type ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
Choice Behaviour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risky Option

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes ) and bonobos ( Pan paniscus ), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Decision Making Under Model Uncertainty: Fréchet–Wasserstein Mean Preferences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Electra V. Petracou ◽  
Anastasios Xepapadeas ◽  
Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Social Discount Rate ◽  
Wasserstein Metric ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Given ◽  
Variational Preferences

This paper contributes to the literature on decision making under multiple probability models by studying a class of variational preferences. These preferences are defined in terms of Fréchet mean utility functionals, which are based on the Wasserstein metric in the space of probability models. In order to produce a measure that is the “closest” to all probability models in the given set, we find the barycenter of the set. We derive explicit expressions for the Fréchet–Wasserstein mean utility functionals and show that they can be expressed in terms of an expansion that provides a tractable link between risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. The proposed utility functionals are illustrated in terms of two applications. The first application allows us to define the social discount rate under model uncertainty. In the second application, the functionals are used in risk securitization. The barycenter in this case can be interpreted as the model that maximizes the probability that different decision makers will agree on, which could be useful for designing and pricing a catastrophe bond. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.

scholarly journals Bargaining Power or Specialization? Determinants of Household Decision Making in Chinese Rural Migrant Families

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402098044
Author(s):  
Zicheng Wang ◽  
Yun Lou ◽  
Yi Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bargaining Power ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Legal Rights ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Household Decision Making ◽  
Female Migrants ◽  
Migrant Families

Family migration is a common integration process for rural migrants in contemporary China. However, discussions on intra-household decision making in dual-earner migrant families are limited. This study aims to address this gap. The data set from the Rural Urban Migration in China (RUMiC2008–2010) is employed to explore the determinants of household decision making. In addition, logit regression is performed to estimate the probability of wives acting as head of the household under different specifications, and the Blinder–Oaxaca–Fairlie decomposition is utilized to discuss gender differentials in decision-making responsibilities. Income and migration duration differentials between a wife and husband have important influences on the probability of being responsible for household decision making. The squared terms of wives’ and husbands’ income have inverted effects. The gender gap between household decision makers can be largely attributed to structural factors rather than observable characteristics, though bargaining power acts as the main contributor in explained parts. Bargaining theory can account for the probability of wives becoming the household decision maker, and the claim of the specialization approach is also confirmed. Gender inequality among household decision makers is largely attributed to structural factors, such as cultural/social norms, obstacles, or gender discrimination. The establishment of long-term effective mechanisms to improve employment quality for female migrants, the supply of basic public services, and protection of women’s legal rights in the household should be strengthened in the future to elevate the status of female migrants.

scholarly journals Decision-Making Process in Female Genital Mutilation: A Systematic Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3362
Author(s):  
Angi Alradie-Mohamed ◽  
Russell Kabir ◽  
S.M. Yasir Arafat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Narrative Analysis ◽  
Female Genital Mutilation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Genital Mutilation ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Household Decision Making ◽  
Meta Analyses ◽  
Female Genital

Female genital mutilation/cutting “FGM/C” is a deep-rooted damaging practice. Despite the growing efforts to end this practice, the current trends of its decline are not enough to overcome the population’s underlying growth. The aim of this research is to investigate the FGM/C household decision-making process and identify the main household decision-makers. A review of peer-reviewed articles was conducted by searching PubMed, JSTOR, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, EBSCO, and CINAHL Plus via systematic search using keywords. The found publications were screen using inclusion and exclusion criteria in line with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. After critical appraisal, seventeen articles were included in this review. The data extracted from the articles regarding FGM/C household-decision making process and decision-makers were analyzed using narrative analysis. FGM/C decision-making process varies from a region to another; however, it generally involves more than one individual, and each one has different power over the decision. Fathers, mothers, and grandmothers are the main decision-makers. It was shown from this review that opening the dialogue regarding FGM/C between sexes may lead to a productive decision-making process. The participation of fathers in the decision-making may free the mothers from the social-pressure and responsibility of carrying on traditions and create a more favorable environment to stop FGM/C practice.

Decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations with additive approximate consistency

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 4041-4058
Author(s):  
Fang Liu ◽  
Xu Tan ◽  
Hui Yang ◽  
Hui Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Real Interval ◽  
Preference Relations ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy Preference Relations ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
Fuzzy Weights ◽  
Fuzzy Preference

Intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations (IFPRs) have the natural ability to reflect the positive, the negative and the non-determinative judgements of decision makers. A decision making model is proposed by considering the inherent property of IFPRs in this study, where the main novelty comes with the introduction of the concept of additive approximate consistency. First, the consistency definitions of IFPRs are reviewed and the underlying ideas are analyzed. Second, by considering the allocation of the non-determinacy degree of decision makers’ opinions, the novel concept of approximate consistency for IFPRs is proposed. Then the additive approximate consistency of IFPRs is defined and the properties are studied. Third, the priorities of alternatives are derived from IFPRs with additive approximate consistency by considering the effects of the permutations of alternatives and the allocation of the non-determinacy degree. The rankings of alternatives based on real, interval and intuitionistic fuzzy weights are investigated, respectively. Finally, some comparisons are reported by carrying out numerical examples to show the novelty and advantage of the proposed model. It is found that the proposed model can offer various decision schemes due to the allocation of the non-determinacy degree of IFPRs.

strategi dalam pengambilan keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suci Handayani Handayani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Administrative Process ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Information Time ◽  
Complex Matter ◽  
General Individuals

Decision making is one element of economic value, especially in the era of globalization, and if it is not acceptable in the decision making process, we will be left behind. According to Robins, (2003: 173), Salusu, (2000: 47), and Razik and Swanson, (1995: 476) say that decision making can be interpreted as a process of choosing a number of alternatives, how to act in accordance with concepts, or rules in solving problems to achieve individual or group goals that have been formulated using a number of specific techniques, approaches and methods and achieve optimal levels of acceptance.Decision making in organizations whether a decision is made for a person or group, the nature of the decision is often determined by rules, policies, prescribed, instructions that have been derived or practices that apply. To understand decision making within the organization it is useful to view decision making as part of the overall administrative process. In general, individuals tend to use simple strategies, even if in any complex matter, to get the desired solution, because the solution is limited by imperfect information, time and costs, limited thinking and psychological stress experienced by decision makers.

A Soft Hierarchical Process Approach for Decision Making in A Supply Chain

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1and2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeev Dhingra ◽  
Preetvanti Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Process Approach ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Realistic View ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Pair Wise Comparison ◽  
Supplier Selection Problem ◽  
Selection Of

Decision problems are usually complex and involve evaluation of several conflicting criteria (parameters). Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is a promising field that considers the parallel influence of all criteria and aims at helping decision makers in expressing their preferences, over a set of predefined alternatives, on the basis of criteria (parameters) that are contradictory in nature. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a useful and widespread MCDM tool for solving such type of problems, as it allows the incorporation of conflicting objectives and decision makers preferences in the decision making. The AHP utilizes the concept of pair wise comparison to find the order of criteria (parameters) and alternatives. The comparison in a pairwise manner becomes quite tedious and complex for problems having eight alternatives or more, thereby, limiting the application of AHP. This paper presents a soft hierarchical process approach based on soft set decision making which eliminates the least promising candidate alternatives and selects the optimum(potential) ones that results in the significant reduction in the number of pairwise comparisons necessary for the selection of the best alternative using AHP, giving the approach a more realistic view. A supplier selection problem is used to illustrate the proposed approach.

scholarly journals An Innovative Grey Approach for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Based on the Median of Ratings by Using Python

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Dragiša Stanujkić ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Gabrijela Popović ◽  
Predrag S. Stanimirović ◽  
Florentin Smarandache ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Some decision-making problems, i.e., multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problems, require taking into account the attitudes of a large number of decision-makers and/or respondents. Therefore, an approach to the transformation of crisp ratings, collected from respondents, in grey interval numbers form based on the median of collected scores, i.e., ratings, is considered in this article. In this way, the simplicity of collecting respondents’ attitudes using crisp values, i.e., by applying some form of Likert scale, is combined with the advantages that can be achieved by using grey interval numbers. In this way, a grey extension of MCDA methods is obtained. The application of the proposed approach was considered in the example of evaluating the websites of tourism organizations by using several MCDA methods. Additionally, an analysis of the application of the proposed approach in the case of a large number of respondents, done in Python, is presented. The advantages of the proposed method, as well as its possible limitations, are summarized.

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