scholarly journals SIZE-BIASED TRANSFORM AND CONDITIONAL MEAN RISK SHARING, WITH APPLICATION TO P2P INSURANCE AND TONTINES

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (03) ◽  
pp. 591-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Denuit
Keyword(s):  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Representation Formula ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Sharing Rule ◽  
Conditional Mean ◽  
Aggregate Loss ◽  
Binomial Sums ◽  
Mean Risk

AbstractUsing risk-reducing properties of conditional expectations with respect to convex order, Denuit and Dhaene [Denuit, M. and Dhaene, J. (2012). Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51, 265–270] proposed the conditional mean risk sharing rule to allocate the total risk among participants to an insurance pool. This paper relates the conditional mean risk sharing rule to the size-biased transform when pooled risks are independent. A representation formula is first derived for the conditional expectation of an individual risk given the aggregate loss. This formula is then exploited to obtain explicit expressions for the contributions to the pool when losses are modeled by compound Poisson sums, compound Negative Binomial sums, and compound Binomial sums, to which Panjer recursion applies. Simple formulas are obtained when claim severities are homogeneous. A couple of applications are considered: first, to a peer-to-peer insurance scheme where participants share the first layer of their respective risks while the higher layer is ceded to a (re)insurer; second, to survivor credits to be shared among surviving participants in tontine schemes.

LARGE-LOSS BEHAVIOR OF CONDITIONAL MEAN RISK SHARING

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1093-1122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Denuit ◽  
Christian Y. Robert
Keyword(s):  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Total Loss ◽  
Risk Allocation ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Sharing Rule ◽  
Conditional Mean ◽  
Compound Binomial ◽  
Mean Risk

AbstractWe consider the conditional mean risk allocation for an insurance pool, as defined by Denuit and Dhaene (2012). Precisely, we study the asymptotic behavior of the respective relative contributions of the participants as the total loss of the pool tends to infinity. The numerical illustration in Denuit (2019) suggests that the application of the conditional mean risk sharing rule may produce a linear sharing in the tail of the total loss distribution. This paper studies the validity of this empirical finding in the class of compound Panjer–Katz sums consisting of compound Binomial, compound Poisson, and compound Negative Binomial sums with either Gamma or Pareto severities. It is demonstrated that such a behavior does not hold in general since one term may dominate the other ones conditional of large total loss.

Conditional mean risk sharing in the individual model with graphical dependencies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Michel Denuit ◽  
Christian Y. Robert
Keyword(s):  
Graphical Models ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Allocation Rule ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Claim Amount ◽  
Conditional Mean ◽  
Operational Risks ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Mean Risk

Abstract Conditional mean risk sharing appears to be effective to distribute total losses amongst participants within an insurance pool. This paper develops analytical results for this allocation rule in the individual risk model with dependence induced by the respective position within a graph. Precisely, losses are modelled by zero-augmented random variables whose joint occurrence distribution and individual claim amount distributions are based on network structures and can be characterised by graphical models. The Ising model is adopted for occurrences and loss amounts obey decomposable graphical models that are specific to each participant. Two graphical structures are thus used: the first one to describe the contagion amongst member units within the insurance pool and the second one to model the spread of losses inside each participating unit. The proposed individual risk model is typically useful for modelling operational risks, catastrophic risks or cybersecurity risks.

scholarly journals CMPH: a multivariate phase-type aggregate loss distribution

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 304-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiandong Ren ◽  
Ricardas Zitikis
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Moment Generating Function ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Joint Distributions ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
Computational Aspects ◽  
Aggregate Loss ◽  
Aggregate Loss Distribution

AbstractWe introduce a compound multivariate distribution designed for modeling insurance losses arising from different risk sources in insurance companies. The distribution is based on a discrete-time Markov Chain and generalizes the multivariate compound negative binomial distribution, which is widely used for modeling insurance losses.We derive fundamental properties of the distribution and discuss computational aspects facilitating calculations of risk measures of the aggregate loss, as well as allocations of the aggregate loss to individual types of risk sources. Explicit formulas for the joint moment generating function and the joint moments of different loss types are derived, and recursive formulas for calculating the joint distributions given. Several special cases of particular interest are analyzed. An illustrative numerical example is provided.

scholarly journals Asymptotic behaviors with convergence rates of distributions of negative-binomial sums

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-421
Author(s):  
Tran Loc Hung ◽  
Phan Tri Kien ◽  
Nguyen Tan Nhut
Keyword(s):  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Convergence Rates ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Rates Of Convergence ◽  
Weak Limit ◽  
Probability Metric ◽  
Weak Limit Theorems ◽  
Distribution Theorem ◽  
Binomial Sums

The negative-binomial sum is an extension of a geometric sum. It has been arisen from the necessity to resolve practical problems in telecommunications, network analysis, stochastic finance and insurance mathematics, etc. Up to the present, the topics related to negative-binomial sums like asymptotic distributions and rates of convergence have been investigated by many mathematicians. However, in a lot of various situations, the results concerned the rates of convergence for negative-binomial sums are still restrictive. The main purpose of this paper is to establish some weak limit theorems for negative-binomial sums of independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables via Gnedenko's Transfer Theorem originated by Gnedenko and Fahim (1969). Using Zolotarev's probability metric, the rate of convergence in weak limit theorems for negativebinomial sum are established. The received results are the rates of convergence in weak limit theorem for partial sum of i.i.d random variables related to symmetric stable distribution (Theorem 1), and asymptotic distribution together with the convergence rates for negative-binomial sums of i.i.d. random variables concerning to symmetric Linnik laws and Generalized Linnik distribution (Theorem 2 and Theorem 3). Based on the results of this paper, the analogous results for geometric sums of i.i.d. random variables will be concluded as direct consequences. However, the article has just been solved for the case of 1 <a < 2; it is quite hard to estimate in the case of a 2 (0;1) via the Zolotarev's probability metric. Mathematics Subject Classification 2010: 60G50; 60F05; 60E07.

scholarly journals A Functional Approach to Approximations for the Individual Risk Model

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 379-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan M. Pitts
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Order Approximation ◽  
Functional Approach ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Claim Amount ◽  
Total Claim Amount ◽  
Total Claim ◽  
Binomial Approximation ◽  
The Individual

A functional approach is taken for the total claim amount distribution for the individual risk model. Various commonly used approximations for this distribution are considered, including the compound Poisson approximation, the compound binomial approximation, the compound negative binomial approximation and the normal approximation. These are shown to arise as zeroth order approximations in the functional set-up. By taking the derivative of the functional that maps the individual claim distributions onto the total claim amount distribution, new first order approximation formulae are obtained as refinements to the existing approximations. For particular choices of input, these new approximations are simple to calculate. Numerical examples, including the well-known Gerber portfolio, are considered. Corresponding approximations for stop-loss premiums are given.

NWU property of a class of random sums

2000 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Cai ◽  
Vladimir Kalashnikov
Keyword(s):  
Renewal Process ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Random Sums ◽  
Poisson Distributions ◽  
Geometric Sums ◽  
Binomial Sums

In this note, we derive an inequality for the renewal process. Then, using this inequality, together with an identity in terms of the renewal process for the tails of random sums, we prove that a class of random sums is always new worse than used (NWU). Thus, the well-known NWU property of geometric sums is extended to the class of random sums. This class is illustrated by some examples, including geometric sums, mixed geometric sums, certain mixed Poisson distributions and certain negative binomial sums.

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