COHERENT INCURRED PAID (CIP) MODELS FOR CLAIMS RESERVING

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (02) ◽  
pp. 749-777
Author(s):  
Gilles Dupin ◽  
Emmanuel Koenig ◽  
Pierre Le Moine ◽  
Alain Monfort ◽  
Eric Ratiarison

AbstractIn this paper, we first propose a statistical model, called the Coherent Incurred Paid model, to predict future claims, using simultaneously the information contained in incurred and paid claims. This model does not assume log-normality of the levels (or normality of the growth rates) and is semi-parametric since it only specifies the first and the second moments; however, in order to evaluate the impact of the normality assumption, we also propose a benchmark Gaussian version of our model. Correlations between growth rates of incurred and paid claims are allowed and the tail development period is estimated. We also provide methods for computing the Claim Development Results and their Values at Risk in the semi-parametric framework. Moreover, we show how to take into account the updating of the estimation in the computation of the Claim Development Results. An application highlights the practical importance of relaxing the normality assumption and of updating the estimation of the parameters.

Author(s):  
Dieter Grimm

This chapter examines the democratic costs of constitutionalization by focusing on the European case. It first considers the interdependence of democracy and constitutionalism before discussing how constitutionalization can put democracy at risk. It then explores the tension between democracy and fundamental rights, the constitutionalization of the European treaties, and the European Court of Justice’s (ECJ) two separate judgments regarding the relationship between European law and national law. It also assesses the impact of the ECJ’s jurisprudence on democracy, especially in the area of economic integration. The chapter argues that the legitimacy problem the EU faces is caused in part by over-constitutionalization and that the remedy to this problem is re-politicization of decisions with significant political implications.


The theory of the vibrations of the pianoforte string put forward by Kaufmann in a well-known paper has figured prominently in recent discussions on the acoustics of this instrument. It proceeds on lines radically different from those adopted by Helmholtz in his classical treatment of the subject. While recognising that the elasticity of the pianoforte hammer is not a negligible factor, Kaufmann set out to simplify the mathematical analysis by ignoring its effect altogether, and treating the hammer as a particle possessing only inertia without spring. The motion of the string following the impact of the hammer is found from the initial conditions and from the functional solutions of the equation of wave-propagation on the string. On this basis he gave a rigorous treatment of two cases: (1) a particle impinging on a stretched string of infinite length, and (2) a particle impinging on the centre of a finite string, neither of which cases is of much interest from an acoustical point of view. The case of practical importance treated by him is that in which a particle impinges on the string near one end. For this case, he gave only an approximate theory from which the duration of contact, the motion of the point struck, and the form of the vibration-curves for various points of the string could be found. There can be no doubt of the importance of Kaufmann’s work, and it naturally becomes necessary to extend and revise his theory in various directions. In several respects, the theory awaits fuller development, especially as regards the harmonic analysis of the modes of vibration set up by impact, and the detailed discussion of the influence of the elasticity of the hammer and of varying velocities of impact. Apart from these points, the question arises whether the approximate method used by Kaufmann is sufficiently accurate for practical purposes, and whether it may be regarded as applicable when, as in the pianoforte, the point struck is distant one-eighth or one-ninth of the length of the string from one end. Kaufmann’s treatment is practically based on the assumption that the part of the string between the end and the point struck remains straight as long as the hammer and string remain in contact. Primâ facie , it is clear that this assumption would introduce error when the part of the string under reference is an appreciable fraction of the whole. For the effect of the impact would obviously be to excite the vibrations of this portion of the string, which continue so long as the hammer is in contact, and would also influence the mode of vibration of the string as a whole when the hammer loses contact. A mathematical theory which is not subject to this error, and which is applicable for any position of the striking point, thus seems called for.


2021 ◽  
Vol 128 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Negus ◽  
Matthew R. Moore ◽  
James M. Oliver ◽  
Radu Cimpeanu

AbstractThe high-speed impact of a droplet onto a flexible substrate is a highly non-linear process of practical importance, which poses formidable modelling challenges in the context of fluid–structure interaction. We present two approaches aimed at investigating the canonical system of a droplet impacting onto a rigid plate supported by a spring and a dashpot: matched asymptotic expansions and direct numerical simulation (DNS). In the former, we derive a generalisation of inviscid Wagner theory to approximate the flow behaviour during the early stages of the impact. In the latter, we perform detailed DNS designed to validate the analytical framework, as well as provide insight into later times beyond the reach of the proposed analytical model. Drawing from both methods, we observe the strong influence that the mass of the plate, resistance of the dashpot, and stiffness of the spring have on the motion of the solid, which undergo forced damped oscillations. Furthermore, we examine how the plate motion affects the dynamics of the droplet, predominantly through altering its internal hydrodynamic pressure distribution. We build on the interplay between these techniques, demonstrating that a hybrid approach leads to improved model and computational development, as well as result interpretation, across multiple length and time scales.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 772-773
Author(s):  
Rose Ann DiMaria-Ghalili ◽  
Connie Bales ◽  
Julie Locher

Abstract Food insecurity is an under-recognized geriatric syndrome that has extensive implications in the overall health and well-being of older adults. Understanding the impact of food insecurity in older adults is a first step in identifying at-risk populations and provides a framework for potential interventions in both hospital and community-based settings. This symposium will provide an overview of current prevalence rates of food insecurity using large population-based datasets. We will present a summary indicator that expands measurement to include the functional and social support limitations (e.g., community disability, social isolation, frailty, and being homebound), which disproportionately impact older adults, and in turn their rate and experience of food insecurity and inadequate food access. We will illustrate using an example of at-risk seniors the association between sarcopenia, the age-related loss of muscle mass and function, with rates of food security in the United States. The translational aspect of the symposium will then focus on identification of psychosocial and environmental risk factors including food insecurity in older veterans preparing for surgery within the Veterans Affairs Perioperative Optimization of Senior Health clinic. Gaining insights into the importance of food insecurity will lay the foundation for an intervention for food insecurity in the deep south. Our discussant will provide an overview of the implications of these results from a public health standpoint. By highlighting the importance of food insecurity, such data can potentially become a framework to allow policy makers to expand nutritional programs as a line of defense against hunger in this high-risk population.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah De Pue ◽  
Céline Gillebert ◽  
Eva Dierckx ◽  
Marie-Anne Vanderhasselt ◽  
Rudi De Raedt ◽  
...  

AbstractCOVID-19 took a heavy toll on older adults. In Belgium, by the end of August, 93% of deaths due to COVID-19 were aged 65 or older. Similar trends were observed in other countries. As a consequence, older adults were identified as a group at risk, and strict governmental restrictions were imposed on them. This has caused concerns about their mental health. Using an online survey, this study established the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adults aged 65 years or older, and which factors moderate this impact. Participants reported a significant decrease in activity level, sleep quality and wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Depression was strongly related to reported declines in activity level, sleep quality, wellbeing and cognitive functioning. Our study shows that the COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the mental health of older adults. This implies that this group at risk requires attention of governments and healthcare.


2020 ◽  
pp. 2001272
Author(s):  
Maria R Bonsignore ◽  
Winfried Randerath ◽  
Sofia Schiza ◽  
Johan Verbraecken ◽  
Mark W Elliott ◽  
...  

Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is highly prevalent and is a recognised risk factor for motor vehicle accidents (MVA). Effective treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) has been associated with a normalisation of this increased accident risk. Thus, many jurisdictions have introduced regulations restricting the ability of OSA patients from driving until effectively treated. However, uncertainty prevails regarding the relative importance of OSA severity determined by the apnoea-hypopnoea frequency per hour and the degree of sleepiness in determining accident risk. Furthermore, the identification of subjects at risk for OSA and/or accident risk remains elusive. The introduction of official European regulations regarding fitness to drive prompted the European Respiratory Society to establish a Task Force to address the topic of sleep apnoea, sleepiness and driving with a view to providing an overview to clinicians involved in treating patients with the disorder. The present report evaluates the epidemiology of MVA in patients with OSA, the mechanisms involved in this association, the role of screening questionnaires, driving simulators and other techniques to evaluate sleepiness and/or impaired vigilance, the impact of treatment on MVA risk in affected drivers, and highlights the evidence gaps regarding the identification of OSA patients at risk for MVA.


Author(s):  
Erin M. Milner ◽  
Patricia Kariger ◽  
Amy J. Pickering ◽  
Christine P. Stewart ◽  
Kendra Byrd ◽  
...  

Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age, with most cases occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa. Children in this age group in Africa are at greatest risk worldwide for developmental deficits. There are research gaps in quantifying the risks of mild malaria cases, understanding the pathways linking malaria infection and poor child development, and evaluating the impact of malaria on the development of children under five years. We analyzed the association between malaria infection and gross motor, communication, and personal social development in 592 children age 24 months in rural, western Kenya as part of the WASH Benefits environmental enteric dysfunction sub-study. Eighteen percent of children had malaria, 20% were at risk for gross motor delay, 21% were at risk for communication delay, and 23% were at risk for personal social delay. Having a positive malaria test was associated with increased risk for gross motor, communication, and personal social delay while adjusting for child characteristics, household demographics, study cluster, and intervention treatment arm. Mediation analyses suggested that anemia was a significant mediator in the pathway between malaria infection and risk for gross motor, communication, and personal social development delays. The proportion of the total effect of malaria on the risk of developmental delay that is mediated by anemia across the subscales was small (ranging from 9% of the effect on gross motor development to 16% of the effect on communication development mediated by anemia). Overall, malaria may be associated with short-term developmental delays during a vulnerable period of early life. Therefore, preventative malaria measures and immediate treatment are imperative for children’s optimal development, particularly in light of projections of continued high malaria transmission in Kenya and Africa.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Mouriño ◽  
Maria Isabel Barão

Missing-data problems are extremely common in practice. To achieve reliable inferential results, we need to take into account this feature of the data. Suppose that the univariate data set under analysis has missing observations. This paper examines the impact of selecting an auxiliary complete data set—whose underlying stochastic process is to some extent interdependent with the former—to improve the efficiency of the estimators for the relevant parameters of the model. The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) Model has revealed to be an extremely useful tool in capturing the dynamics of bivariate time series. We propose maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the VAR(1) Model based on monotone missing data pattern. Estimators’ precision is also derived. Afterwards, we compare the bivariate modelling scheme with its univariate counterpart. More precisely, the univariate data set with missing observations will be modelled by an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA(2,1)) Model. We will also analyse the behaviour of the AutoRegressive Model of order one, AR(1), due to its practical importance. We focus on the mean value of the main stochastic process. By simulation studies, we conclude that the estimator based on the VAR(1) Model is preferable to those derived from the univariate context.


2006 ◽  
Vol 144 (5) ◽  
pp. 411-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. D. HOLLINS ◽  
P. S. KETTLEWELL ◽  
S. T. PARSONS ◽  
M. D. ATKINSON

The difference between the bread wheat and feed wheat prices in the UK (the premium) is an important influence on behaviour throughout the entire grain chain. The aim of the present study was to quantify the influence of grain quality and other factors on interannual variation in the premium calculated as a proportion of the feed price. A hypothetical model of the UK wheat economy was devised, appropriate annual national data from 1982 to 2000 were collected for each component and multiple regression was used to develop a statistical model for the premium.The statistical model included livestock numbers (calculated as pig equivalents), Hagberg falling number and wheat stocks, which together explained 0·80 of the interannual variation in the premium. A high premium was associated with high livestock numbers, low Hagberg falling number and low wheat stocks. These variables were included in the hypothetical model because: livestock numbers represent demand for feed wheat; Hagberg falling number is a quality criterion for purchase of bread wheat with a low value indicating poor quality and thus a smaller supply of bread wheat; wheat stocks are one of the sources of supply of wheat. It was concluded that of the 16 supply, demand or price variables in the hypothetical model the main variables associated with the premium from 1982 to 2000 were demand for feed wheat, quality of the wheat harvest and carry-over of wheat from the previous harvest.


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