OPTIMAL REINSURANCE WITH LIMITED CEDED RISK: A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE APPROACH

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yichun Chi ◽  
X. Sheldon Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Optimization Criterion ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Convex Order ◽  
Optimal Reinsurance ◽  
Reinsurance Treaty ◽  
Stop Loss ◽  
The Cost

AbstractAn optimal reinsurance problem from the perspective of an insurer is studied in this paper, where an upper limit is imposed on a reinsurer's expected loss over a prescribed level. In order to reduce the moral hazard, we assume that both the insurer and the reinsurer are obligated to pay more as the amount of loss increases in a typical reinsurance treaty. We further assume that the optimization criterion preserves the convex order. Such a criterion is very general as most of the criteria for optimal reinsurance problems in the literature preserve the convex order. When the reinsurance premium is calculated as a function of the actuarial value of coverage, we show via a stochastic dominance approach that any admissible reinsurance policy is dominated by a stop-loss reinsurance or a two-layer reinsurance, depending upon the amount of the reinsurance premium. Moreover, we obtain a similar result to Mossin's Theorem and find that it is optimal for the insurer to cede a loss as much as possible under the net premium principle. To further examine the reinsurance premium for the optimal piecewise linear reinsurance policy, we assume the expected value premium principle and derive the optimal reinsurance explicitly under (1) the criterion of minimizing the variance of the insurer's risk exposure, and (2) the criterion of minimizing the risk-adjusted value of the insurer's liability where the liability valuation is carried out using the cost-of-capital approach based on the conditional value at risk.

THE DESIGN OF AN OPTIMAL RETROSPECTIVE RATING PLAN

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-163
Author(s):  
Xinxiang Chen ◽  
Yichun Chi ◽  
Ken Seng Tan
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Conversion Factor ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Insurance Policy ◽  
Stop Loss ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Insurance Agreement ◽  
Actual Loss

AbstractA retrospective rating plan, whose insurance premium depends upon an insured's actual loss during the policy period, is a special insurance agreement widely used in liability insurance. In this paper, the design of an optimal retrospective rating plan is analyzed from the perspective of the insured who seeks to minimize its risk exposure in the sense of convex order. In order to reduce the moral hazard, we assume that both the insured and the insurer are obligated to pay more for a larger realization of the loss. Under the further assumptions that the minimum premium is zero, the maximum premium is proportional to the expected indemnity, and the basic premium is the only free parameter in the formula for retrospective premium given by Meyers (2004) and that the basic premium is determined in such a way that the expected retrospective premium equates to the expected indemnity with a positive safety loading, we formally establish the relationship that the insured will suffer more risk for a larger loss conversion factor or a higher maximum premium. These findings suggest that the insured prefers an insurance policy with the expected value premium principle, which is a special retrospective premium principle with zero loss conversion factor. In addition, we show that any admissible retrospective rating plan is dominated by a stop-loss insurance policy. Finally, the optimal retention of a stop-loss insurance is derived numerically under the criterion of minimizing the risk-adjusted value of the insured's liability where the liability valuation is carried out using the cost-of-capital approach based on the conditional value at risk.

OPTIMAL REINSURANCE FROM THE VIEWPOINTS OF BOTH AN INSURER AND A REINSURER UNDER THE CVAR RISK MEASURE AND VAJDA CONDITION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Yanhong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Loss Function ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Convex Combination ◽  
Weighting Factor ◽  
Loss Functions ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Optimal Reinsurance ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT In this paper, we study the optimal reinsurance contracts that minimize the convex combination of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of the insurer’s loss and the reinsurer’s loss over the class of ceded loss functions such that the retained loss function is increasing and the ceded loss function satisfies Vajda condition. Among a general class of reinsurance premium principles that satisfy the properties of risk loading and convex order preserving, the optimal solutions are obtained. Our results show that the optimal ceded loss functions are in the form of five interconnected segments for general reinsurance premium principles, and they can be further simplified to four interconnected segments if more properties are added to reinsurance premium principles. Finally, we derive optimal parameters for the expected value premium principle and give a numerical study to analyze the impact of the weighting factor on the optimal reinsurance.

LOCAL HEDGING OF VARIABLE ANNUITIES IN THE PRESENCE OF BASIS RISK

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (02) ◽  
pp. 611-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis-Alexandre Trottier ◽  
Frédéric Godin ◽  
Emmanuel Hamel
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Optimization Criterion ◽  
Local Optimization ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Variable Annuities ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Risk Metric

AbstractA method to hedge variable annuities in the presence of basis risk is developed. A regime-switching model is considered for the dynamics of market assets. The approach is based on a local optimization of risk and is therefore very tractable and flexible. The local optimization criterion is itself optimized to minimize capital requirements associated with the variable annuity policy, the latter being quantified by the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) risk metric. In comparison to benchmarks, our method is successful in simultaneously reducing capital requirements and increasing profitability. Indeed the proposed local hedging scheme benefits from a higher exposure to equity risk and from time diversification of risk to earn excess return and facilitate the accumulation of capital. A robust version of the hedging strategies addressing model risk and parameter uncertainty is also provided.

scholarly journals Optimal Limited Stop-Loss Reinsurance under VaR, TVaR, and CTE Risk Measures

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianhua Zhou ◽  
Huadong Zhang ◽  
Qingquan Fan
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Optimal Reinsurance ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Optimal Values ◽  
Stop Loss ◽  
Conditional Tail Expectation ◽  
Reinsurance Market

This paper aims to provide a practical optimal reinsurance scheme under particular conditions, with the goal of minimizing total insurer risk. Excess of loss reinsurance is an essential part of the reinsurance market, but the concept of stop-loss reinsurance tends to be unpopular. We study the purchase arrangement of optimal reinsurance, under which the liability of reinsurers is limited by the excess of loss ratio, in order to generate a reinsurance scheme that is closer to reality. We explore the optimization of limited stop-loss reinsurance under three risk measures: value at risk (VaR), tail value at risk (TVaR), and conditional tail expectation (CTE). We analyze the topic from the following aspects: (1) finding the optimal franchise point with limited stop-loss coverage, (2) finding the optimal limited stop-loss coverage within a certain franchise point, and (3) finding the optimal franchise point with limited stop-loss coverage. We provide several numerical examples. Our results show the existence of optimal values and locations under the various constraint conditions.

scholarly journals Analytical Bounds for two Value-at-Risk Functionals

2002 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Hürlimann
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
General Interest ◽  
Dominance Order ◽  
Risk Capital ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Aggregate Loss ◽  
Stop Loss

AbstractBased on the notions of value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk, we consider two functionals, abbreviated VaR and CVaR, which represent the economic risk capital required to operate a risky business over some time period when only a small probability of loss is tolerated. These functionals are consistent with the risk preferences of profit-seeking (and risk averse) decision makers and preserve the stochastic dominance order (and the stop-loss order). This result is used to bound the VaR and CVaR functionals by determining their maximal values over the set of all loss and profit functions with fixed first few moments. The evaluation of CVaR for the aggregate loss of portfolios is also discussed. The results of VaR and CVaR calculations are illustrated and compared at some typical situations of general interest.

Application of Portfolio Theory Based on CVaR in Determining Optimal Spinning Reserve with Consideration of Load and Wind Power Uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 724-725 ◽  
pp. 649-654
Author(s):  
Jun Li Wu ◽  
Bu Han Zhang ◽  
Zhen Yin Xiao ◽  
Kui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Portfolio Theory ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Spinning Reserve ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Installed Capacity

With the increased installed capacity of wind power in power system, determining optimal spinning reserve capacity is one of the most important problems in operation of electricity power system. CVaR (conditional value at risk) is introduced to calculate the risk of the cost associated with load shed and abandoning wind power with the consideration of load and wind power prediction uncertainties. Portfolio theory based on CVaR is used to build the Cost-CVaR model. Efficient frontier, which can support the system operators (SO) with the decision of optimal spinning reserve, can be obtained by solving the Cost-CVaR model. The analysis of RTS example can demonstrate the usefulness and efficiency of the model.

Robust bi-level risk-based optimal scheduling of microgrid operation against uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hêriș Golpîra ◽  
Salah Bahramara ◽  
Syed Abdul Rehman Khan ◽  
Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Optimal Scheduling ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Initial Objective

The model introduced in this paper is the first to propose a decentralized robust optimal scheduling of MG operation under uncertainty and risk. The power trading of the MG with the main grid is the first stage variable and power generation of DGs and power charging/discharging of the battery are the second stage variables. The uncertain term of the initial objective function is transformed into a constraint using robust optimization approach. Addressing the Decision Maker’s (DMs) risk aversion level through Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) leads to a bi-level programming problem using a data-driven approach. The model is then transformed into a robust single-level using Karush–Kahn–Tucker (KKT) conditions. To investigate the effectiveness of the model and its solution methodology, it is applied on a MG. The results clearly demonstrate the robustness of the model and indicate a strong almost linear relationship between cost and the DMs various levels of risk aversion. The analysis also outlines original characterization of the cost and the MGs behavior using three well-known goodness-of-fit tests on various Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs), Beta, Gumbel Max, Normal, Weibull, and Cauchy. The Gumbel Max and Normal PDFs, respectively, exhibit the most promising goodness-of-fit for the cost, while the power purchased from the grid are well fitted by Weibull, Beta, and Normal PDFs, respectively. At the same time, the power sold to the grid is well fitted by the Cauchy PDF.

scholarly journals Viable Medical Waste Chain Network Design by Considering Risk and Robustness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Lotfi ◽  
Bahareh Kargar ◽  
Alireza Gharehbaghi ◽  
Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber
Keyword(s):  
Network Design ◽  
Cost Function ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Medical Waste ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Production Cycle ◽  
Recovery Coefficient ◽  
Energy And Environment ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Medical Waste Management (MWM) is an important and necessary problem in the COVID-19 situation for treatment staff. When the number of infectious patients grows up and amount of MWMs increases day by day. We present Medical Waste Chain Network Design (MWMCND) that contains Health Center (HC), Waste Segregation (WS), Waste Purchase Contractor (WPC) and landfill. We propose to locate WS to decrease waste and recover them and send them to the WPC. Recovering medical waste like metal and plastic can help the environment and return to the production cycle. Therefore, we proposed a novel Viable MWCND by a novel two-stage robust stochastic programming that considers resiliency (flexibility and network complexity) and sustainable (energy and environment) requirements. Therefore, we try to consider risks by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and improve robustness and agility to demand fluctuation and network. We utilize and solve it by GAMS CPLEX solver. The results show that by increasing the conservative coefficient, the confidence level of CVaR and waste recovery coefficient increases cost function and population risk. Moreover, increasing demand and scale of the problem make to increase the cost function.

scholarly journals The optimal reinsurance treaty

1969 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Borch
Keyword(s):  
General Class ◽  
The Other ◽  
Original Result ◽  
Optimal Reinsurance ◽  
Realistic Theory ◽  
A Value ◽  
Measures Of Dispersion ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Reinsurance Treaty ◽  
Stop Loss

1. Some years ago I discussed optimal reinsurance treaties, without trying to give a precise definition of this term [1]. I suggested that a reinsurance contract could be called “most efficient” if it, for a given net premium, maximized the reduction of the variance in the claim distribution of the ceding company. I proved under fairly restricted conditions that the Stop Loss contract was most efficient in this respect.I do not consider this a particularly interesting result. I pointed out at the time that there are two parties to a reinsurance contract, and that an arrangement which is very attractive to one party, may be quite unacceptable to the other.2. In spite of my own reservations, it seems that this result —which I did not think deserved to be called a theorem—has caused some interest. Kahn [4] has proved that the result is valid under far more general conditions, and recently Ohlin [5] has proved that the result holds for a much more general class of measures of dispersion.In view of these generalizations it might be useful to state once more, why I think the original result has relatively little interest. In doing so, it is by no means my purpose to reduce the value of the mathematical generalizations of Kahn and Ohlin. Such work has a value in itself, whether the results are immediately useful or not. I merely want to point out that there are other lines of research, which appear more promising, if our purpose is to develop a realistic theory of insurance.

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