scholarly journals DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS ON CLIMATE AND CROP YIELDS

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEEPAKORN JITHITIKULCHAI ◽  
BRUCE A. MCCARL ◽  
XIMING WU
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool ◽  
Decadal Climate

AbstractThis article examines the effects of ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena on climate and the effects of both climate shifts and independent DCV events on crop yields. We address three DCV phenomena: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperature Gradient (TAG), and the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We estimate the joint effect of these DCV phenomena on the mean, variance, and skewness of crop yield distributions. We found regionally differentiated impacts of DCV phenomena on growing degree days, precipitation, and extreme weather events, which in turn alter distributions of U.S. regional crop yields.

scholarly journals Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 232-249
Author(s):  
J. Rolf Olsen ◽  
Vikram M. Mehta ◽  
Harvey Hill
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inland Navigation ◽  
Rotational Crop ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary.

El Niño Southern Oscillation and decadal climate variability impacts on crop yields and adaptation value.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (43) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Minglu Wang ◽  
◽  
Yu-Kai Huang ◽  
Muxi Cheng ◽  
Bingru Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
Decadal Climate

Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.

scholarly journals Two centuries of coherent decadal climate variability across the Pacific North American region

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (17) ◽  
pp. 9208-9216 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. Sanchez ◽  
C. D. Charles ◽  
J. D. Carriquiry ◽  
J. A. Villaescusa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North American ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
American Region

scholarly journals The Value of Ocean Decadal Climate Variability Information to United States Agriculture

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 318
Author(s):  
Lauren A. Rhodes ◽  
Bruce A. McCarl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Dynamic Optimization ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Yield Information ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dynamic Optimization Model ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Regional Climates

Ocean-related decadal climate variability (ODCV) has the potential to influence regional climates and, in turn, crop yields. ODCV event forecasts with associated climate and crop yield implication information can provide farmers with the opportunity to alter their crop mixes and input usage to adapt to the forecast conditions. We investigate the value of ODCV information and the nature of adaptations. This is done by estimating the changes in welfare under differing information scenarios using a nonlinear dynamic optimization model. We find evidence that both perfect forecasts and the use of forecasts permitting a conditional probability of future phase combinations can significantly increase agriculture consumer and producer welfare. This is a new result that is an estimate of the US national value of releasing ODCV forecasts and accompanying yield information.

El Niño southern oscillation and decadal climate variability impacts on crop yields and adaptation value.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (043) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-lu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.

scholarly journals Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. e1501719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Weller ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Francis W. Zwiers ◽  
Yeon-Hee Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth’s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world’s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

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