scholarly journals Regional heterogeneity in the relationship between fiscal imbalances and foreign exchange market pressure

2006 ◽  
Vol 34 (7) ◽  
pp. 1171-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Bird ◽  
Alex Mandilaras
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Regional Heterogeneity ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Market Pressure

scholarly journals Determinan of Exchange Market Pressure in ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Lisa Gusmanita ◽  
Nury Effendi ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Market Pressure

 Abstract: The global economic turmoil on domestic economy was seen in 1997/1998 crisis which led to Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia implementing Inflation Targeting (IT). Empirically, IT was able to reduce  foreign exchange market pressure but crisis occurred again in 2008 and large foreign exchange market pressure in 2018. This study uses Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) to examines foreign exchange market pressure in ASEAN IT countries. According to Panday (2015), EMP is percentage change in exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, interest rate or combinations. This study aims to find determinant of EMP which can be used by monetary authority controlling pressure on foreign exchange market. Panel data analysis during 2010.Q1-2018.Q4 shows that domestic credit has significant negatively effect to EMP which indicates that domestic credit growth is in line with  increasing  net capital flows. Current account and US inflation have significant negatively effect while real GDP does not have significant.Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Exchange Rate, Monetary PolicyDeterminan Exchange Market Pressure Negara Inflation Targeting di ASEANAbstrak: Gejolak perekonomian global terhadap perekonomian domestik terlihat pada krisis 1997/1998 yang menyebabkan Thailand, Filipina dan Indonesia menerapkan Inflation Targeting (IT). Secara empiris, IT mampu menurunkan tekanan pasar valas akan tetapi krisis kembali terjadi di 2008 dan tekanan pasar valas yang besar di 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan terhadap pasar valas negara IT di ASEAN. Menurut Panday (2015), EMP adalah persentase perubahan nilai tukar, perubahan cadangan devisa, perubahan suku bunga dan atau kombinasinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan ingin mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang memengaruhi EMP sehingga dapat dijadikan masukan bagi otoritas moneter dalam mengendalikan tekanan terhadap pasar valas. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi data panel periode 2010.Q1-2018.Q4. Penelitian menunjukkan kredit domestik signifikan negatif memengaruhi EMP. Hal ini tidak sesuai teori yang mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kredit domestik sejalan dengan peningkatan net capital flows. Transaksi neraca berjalan dan inflasi AS berpengaruh signifikan negatif sedangkan PDB riil tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap EMP.Kata kunci: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Nilai Tukar, Kebijakan Moneter

scholarly journals Foreign exchange market pressure index and monetary policy in Iraq

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (219) ◽  
pp. 61-82
Author(s):  
Ammar Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This paper?s aims are to adequately measure a foreign exchange market pressure index that can be used to discover pressures in the Iraqi foreign exchange market early on, and to examine the effect of monetary policy intervention in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. The modelling approach used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), with monthly time series data spanning 2013-2017. The index used in this paper was able to identify different periods of pressure in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. In addition, the econometric analysis found that the traditional proxies for monetary policy intervention in the foreign exchange market, such as domestic credit and money multiplier, were ineffective in the case of Iraq. The results show that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) relied extensively on foreign reserves to mitigate pressures in the foreign exchange market. Due to the nature of the Iraqi economy and where the main source of foreign currency is oil exports, the CBI adopted a fixed exchange rate regime to control inflationary expectations and stabilize the foreign exchange market.

scholarly journals Pressure Measurement on the Foreign Exchange Market and Currency Crises in Morocco

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
ICHOU Mohammed Adil ◽  
RASSAM Driss ◽  
ABBADI Idriss ◽  
ELHIRI Abderrazak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This article aims to assess the pressure upon the official currency of the Kingdom of Morocco - the Dirham - and to detect the periods of crisis on the foreign exchange market. Several methods can be used for this purpose especially the Exchange Market Pressure Index, which is considered as an excellent predictive indicator that takes into account both changes in nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. In term of results, the pressures on the Moroccan foreign exchange market stem mainly from a substantial decrease in foreign exchange reserves combined with a high deficit of the current account of the balance of payments deficit. In the last part of this article, a logistic model was used to forecast the EMPI for the end of the year 2020. The results of this modeling showed that the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market remained generally under control during the year, although its signs could be felt particularly in the fourth quarter. These results were corroborated by the 2020 officially published figures. Keywords: Foreign exchange market, Exchange Market Pressure Index, Exchange rate, Foreign exchange reserves.

SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE IN SINGAPORE

2004 ◽  
Vol 49 (01) ◽  
pp. 55-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
HIROYA AKIBA ◽  
YUKIHIRO IIDA
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Specific Interest ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Intervention Activity ◽  
Market Intervention ◽  
Market Pressure

This paper examines an intervention index in the foreign exchange market, applying the quarterly data of the Singapore economy during the 1990's. The intervention index measures intervention activity as the proportion of exchange market pressure relieved by exchange market intervention. Singapore is selected because (1) it is a small open economy and consistent with this empirical study, and (2) it has been affected by speculative attacks. The specific interest is the effectiveness of intervention conducted by the Singapore authority to mitigate exchange market pressure. It is concluded that the overall intervention activity is surprisingly successful over the sample period.

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